Chicago White Sox

Man Cannon has some ugly looking Statcast figures. Just doesn’t seem he has any sort of out pitch and doesn’t generate a ton ground balls either. He’s probably fine as a passable #5, but he’s got to make some pitch / repertoire changes if he really wants to hold that spot or ever be more than that. Having a diverse arsenal of bad to ok pitches will only take you so far.

The plaintiff claims to have been shot in the stadium and has the wound and a casing to support their claim…not sure what other burden of proof is needed here. Also, what animosity have I shown towards public school teachers? No idea what you are talking about there.

Not sure if you’re American, but guns are literally everywhere and oftentimes they are brought into places they shouldn’t be. My brother in law brings his Glock into the movie theater because he’s fucking paranoid like half this country. It’s wild to think someone would try to sneak a gun into a sporting event, but there are plenty of dumbasses out there who don’t think before they act. It’s why every once in a while you hear about someone getting caught by TSA trying to sneak a handgun through at the airport.

How is that scientifically possible?

Not in a million years did anyone expect Thaiss to be moved for anything of value. He was simply brought in to buy some time for Teel & Quero without being a total disaster. The fact he performed as well as he did should be viewed as a scouting win vs. a trade shortfall. I do wish we got more for him, but the right call was to sell for what you could and call up the blue chip prospect. As for Slater, he has a .351 xwOBA (50 points higher than his wOBA) and strong quality of contact metrics. As a weak side platoon player, he has been the victim of bad batted ball luck. Doesn’t change the fact that he offers a good bat against LHP and appears to be worth his measly salary. As I have pointed out numerous times, he is blocking no one of importance and there is some value in having veterans who offer professional at-bats and improve the floor of the team.

I have read the Vargas has been bad the past month, but since June 1st he has put up a 10% BB rate, 14% K rate, and a .174 ISO. His hard hit rate is 44% during this frame and yet his BABIP is only at .243. Based on those peripherals, I will believe he’s been unlucky more than bad. Teel has a 119 wRC+ as a rookie catcher despite his xwOBA being 45 points higher than wOBA. Meidroth has been close to a league average hitter based on the skill set he was advertised as having and has shown enough at SS to look like he could stick there if need be. Regardless, he should continue to improve with time. Sosa has flashed being a decent 2B option on the cheap. The latter two guys won’t be stars, but having 1.5 to 2.5 win players is needed to go from terrible to average. And on the pitching side, Smith has been a tremendous pickup and Burke has flashed a ton over the past month to believe he can be a rotation mainstay. I’d add that Taylor has shown to have a hell of arm and will be an impact player in some capacity, whether that’s in relief or eventually as a starter. There are couple of other young guys like Martin & Vasil that have pitched well, but the peripherals don’t look great so won’t count them as wins just yet. By no means should anyone be doing cartwheels over these “wins”, but during the second half of Hahn’s tenure we had very few young players perform even close to these levels outside of the elite prospects acquired at the front end of the rebuild.

Many of the guys you list weren’t planned additions, but rather waiver wire fodder to fill out a roster. IMO, Tauchman, Slater, & Thaiss have all delivered as cheap veteran placeholders. Taylor is at 0.3 fWAR although I wouldn’t really consider that as a win. Rojas has flopped pretty hard and should be included in your list above. Three of out of five scrap heap signings more or less working is about as good as any GM is going to do and is much better than anything we have seen under Hahn.

Lol…context certainly matters when assessing the performance of a team. As you have noted many times, the team last year was historically bad with few building blocks and since then our owner has further gutted the payroll. I’m not sure what your expectations were for this season, but this team was going to be incredibly bad again from a W-L perspective in pretty much any scenario. As such, “success” really comes down to winning on the margins rather than being a non-terrible club. Young players showing some signs of life is by far the most important outcome this year and we have seen a decent sized group of kids that look like legitimate pieces even if most of them lack star upside. Regardless, it’s just a first step in a long-term process but ultimately a necessary one to get back to even normal bad. Veterans performing at or above expectations is a lesser but still important objective. I think the reality is Robert has flopped hard which will hurt quite a bit come the deadline. None of the other vets really have the ability to move the needle much in terms of return, but I am pleased with some of Getz’s dumpster dive pickups as they have been more productive than what we typically got from his predecessor and is hopefully a sign of the progress made behind the scenes. Finally, watching Venable and his coaching staff not completely implode in the wake of another tough season is a positive. It appears that the players actually respect him and as bad as things have been we haven’t really seen guys quit like they did under Grifol last year. Ultimately, none of this should qualify as “exciting” because we are still multiple years away from being mediocre, but objectively speaking it’s been an ok 1st half if you contextualize your expectations.

What statistical analysis are you referring to that was discredited? The use of a 20 year sample to suggest that the Sox were good to the very end of Hahn’s tenure at developing pitching?

Who is celebrating Edgar Quero’s -0.1 fWAR?

Bad…yes. Another 100+ season? Way to say that with any level of certainty.

I didn’t make up that theory and speculation is that a metal detector likely went off but security couldn’t find the cause and decided to let the woman through. As for no weapon being seen or found at scene, it was likely still in the woman’s fat folds when it was accidentally discharged and probably stayed there when she quickly left thereafter. Out of curiosity, what is your theory on the matter?

To me, the shooting in the park is an exponentially bigger story and it felt like it quickly got swept under the rug. Still no idea how that wasn’t one of the biggest sport stories in years. If our fanbase or baseball fans in general should be enraged about something, that was the event that should have set them off. I was at that game with my two young sons and I’ve practically grown numb to the fact there was a woman there who snuck a gun into the park through her fat rolls. It raises so many questions that deserve answers and yet to this day those accountable have skirted any repercussions. Just a wild difference between that story and this one.

One thing worth mentioning, but the Sox will need to spend some real money to add impact talent and fill other holes in the lineup with competent players. IMO, we probably need to add two high-end power bats via free agency to have any real chance of forming an above average lineup anytime soon. Braden Montgomery is the only prospect I feel good about becoming a legit middle of the lineup hitter at the moment. Bonemer looks like he has a chance to be a high impact player, but he’s still got a long ways to go and I need to see a bit more before I start pegging him into our near-term plans. Regardless, I feel like 1B and the OF are where we will need outside additions and those are areas where I’m optimistic we can find the money to do so. Will help if Ishbia coming on board creates a greater sense of urgency to spend though, as I do worry some that Jerry will naturally cower in the wake of a looming baseball stoppage.

I have held back commenting on this story, because I wanted to have all the facts before doing so. Ultimately, this appears to be a big nothing that has been blown out of proportions by all sides. The moral police immediately assumed the worst by thinking some 22 year old drunk kid was legit evil and ripping into Marte over his mom being dead despite it being unlikely he even knew of her passing. And now you have the free speech police all worked up because the kid received a lifetime ban from all Major League teams when it turned out he was only making some generic “yo mama” jokes. The amount of attention this story has gotten and all the corresponding responses are the perfect depiction of just how fucked up this country is right now. The need for many to immediately serve as judge, jury, and executioner on social media is a massive problem for a country built around due process. At the same time, this idea that people can say and do dumb s%*# under the guise of “free speech” and should just receive a slap on the wrist is just as problematic. The reality here is we have a dumb, drunk 22 year old riding a player to be cool and/or impress the girl he was with. The comments were random and not built to personally strike a nerve with Marte, but unfortunately by happenstance they did. The coaches then yelled at the fan and told him that he had gone too far given the circumstance and it sounds like the kid didn’t lay off. IMO, if that last point is true, then the kid is probably a pretty big douchebag and should be held accountable for his actions. Whether that should be lifetime bans, I don’t know and candidly I don’t care. This is a private fucking business and if they don’t want this douche around then this is their choice. I get many of us have done stupid and hurtful things in our youth, myself included, but an important part of growth is actually facing some consequences. The kid certainly shouldn’t have been doxxed, but if MLB wants to tell him to f*** off forever then hopefully he and others learn from this and think a little bit before they act in the future.

Definitely filling the old Andrew Vaughn Swiss Army knife role

Results wise no doubt it’s been brutal. But unfortunately with where Hahn left things and Jerry bottoming-out the payroll, it was always going to be a very ugly season. That being said, our current Pythagorean would imply a 60 win pace which is 15 games better than last year’s expected wins based on run differential. What’s fascinating is the positional group is 29th overall at fWAR at 0.2, which is insanely fucking bad but still a big improvement over last year. Regardless, that amount is weighted down substantially by guys who are no longer on team or guys who are easily replaceable. Vaughn, Amaya, Palacious, Rojas, Noda, & Capra have combined for -4 wins in just a half a season. Meanwhile, Robert & Benintendi have combined for just 0.1 fWAR despite +$31M in salary. My point here is still there is a ton of low hanging fruit that can be solved for with relative ease with a bit more time (once real minor leaguers arrive) and some Ishbia money being spent. IMO, Robert imploding and the TJS surgeries are the most frustrating parts of the first half at the major league level. The former sets us back in terms of acquiring talented prospects and the latter wastes a golden opportunity for less heralded guys to establish themselves and give us additional trade assets to help fill out the holes in the lineup.

Honestly, outside of Robert imploding, it hasn’t been a terrible 1H. We are starting to see a collection of young bats form and Smith & Burke (who has very good over the past month) look like long-term rotation options. And some of the dumpster dive vets have performed fairly well, which is a step up from the Hahn days. Still a ways off and I wish we had some trade chips this deadline that could actually move the needle, but at least not all the kids flopped and set us back even further.

For me, it’s all about giving the most young guys at-bats and seeing who can play where. I am not an Elko believer by any means, but this is the season to give him a shot and see if he does something with the opportunity. Will help come to a 40 man roster decision faster. Vargas is probably better at 1B, but his bat is also less valuable there so why not give him an extended run at 3B to see if he might get better? With Colson no longer a major threat, the spot is open for the taking. Sosa doesn’t really have a potential long-term spot outside of 2B so I’d just let him run with that for now. For him, the focus should be learning some semblance of plate discipline, but even with say a 110 wRC+ he needs to play an actual position instead of just DHing to be of any real value. Baldwin may not be an everyday OF, but he’s capable of handling the corners to some extent and that’s the quickest path to at-bats. I also think it’s an area that he needs to work on because I think his ideal role on a legit championship club is 10th man who fills in everywhere and can replace a guy who goes down with injury without the spot imploding. I am confident he can handle 2B and wouldn’t be upset if that’s his long term outcome. I candidly haven’t been following Ramos as much as I should, but I’ve always felt like he was a dude who’d need to learn the OF because of the Colson factor. With Montgomery’s struggles, Bryan may end up being the answer at 3B long-term and push Vargas elsewhere on the field, but my current order of operations would be to prioritize Miguel from a defensive position this season. Vargas has shown me enough to believe he is a major league hitter. We need to find his ideal long-term home defensively so we can start filling out the rest of the roster around him.

I wasn’t a fan of Rojas for similar reasons. At this point, Vargas at 3B and Sosa at 2B should be near everyday things. Rojas is fine in a bench role if need be.

Montgomery appears to be cooked unfortunately. Obviously there is zero reason to give him on him right away, but he’s firmly out of the long-term plans until he shows some semblance of the prospect he once was.

Honestly, post trade deadline the lineup should be something like this: 1B: Elko 2B: Sosa SS: Meidroth 3B: Vargas LF: Ramos CF. Fletcher RF: Baldwin DH: Quero/Teel CA: Teel/Quero Hell, zero reason not to cut Rojas at this point or at least punt his ass to the bench permanently to give Sosa free rein at 2B. I’d just give Elko the 1B job right now so we can fully assess what he may be ahead of next season. Baldwin should already be getting everyday at-bats somewhere in the OF, so call his ass up. Give Fletcher one last shot after moving all the OF vets even if I remain highly skeptical. Ramos could use a bit more time in AAA, but his underlying metrics appear better than his actual results and he should probably get a shot at some point in the 2nd half. I’d also call up Lee so that Quero & Teel can get everyday at-bats between C & DH.

The first statement is true. The second statement not so much. If they were so good at developing pitching, our competitive window wouldn’t have crashed and burned like it did. The simple reality is from 2020 to 2023 we had a single pitcher in Cease achieve 10+ fWAR or basically average 3 wins over those 3 1/3 seasons. Giolito would have as well if he had made all his starts. Throw in one awesome season from Rodon after non-tendering him and that’s pretty much your entire “internally developed” pitching staff post rebuild. “Success story” Lopez put up 0.1 fWAR over 18 starts during this time frame before one good season as a reliever with us. Kopech put 0.7 over 56 starts in between one good season as a reliever. 1st round picks Carson Fulmer and Zack Burdi flopped incredibly hard. Former top 100 prospect Alec Hansen flamed out in AA. Dunning has flashed some backend potential, but ultimately wasn’t that big of a loss. Pretty much nothing on the relief side of things that was actually sustainable. I’m really struggling to see where all this premium development took place. They did some good work with Cease and it was well documented over the course of the 2021 offseason. I’ll give credit where credit is due. Katz did some good work with a former top 10 prospect when he wasn’t actually part of our org, so again, not giving the White Sox any props here. And then you got good ol’ Rodon who should have been the 1.01 pick when we drafted him who they couldn’t figure out how to turn in a front-end SP in the first six years they had him. Glad we got that one awesome year out of him, but the goal of development isn’t to wait until after you have non-tendered the player and are down to your last year team of control before getting them to start approaching their ceiling.

The White Sox got 6 fWAR over his first six seasons. They literally non-tendered him after that point because they didn’t believe he was worth $4M. I’m sorry bro, but that is not proof of quality pitching development whether you want to use the “isn’t always linear” trope or not.

Yes, starting with we must go back 20 years to evaluate whether Rick Hahn was good at his job. Unfortunately it turns out he was and we mistakenly fired him.