Chicago White Sox

The Phillies seem like the most likely landing spot IMO. Huge need for a closer and Dombrowksi is super familiar with him. I wouldn’t expect much, but perhaps a lesser reliever or a couple C prospects is attainable.

I don’t think the price to get Kimbrel will be a significant piece. But do I think the Phillies would be willing give up a lesser reliever with upside like Seranthony Dominguez? I think they just might and how is that not better than eating a $1M buy-out?

Yep, same GMs. How come you aren’t taking shots at the front offices of the Dodgers & Rays who were also highly interested in him? But hey, I remember you saying on July 31st that the closer with a 100th percentile xwOBA and HoF track record was certainly going to fall off over the next two months.

People are 100% allowed to think the Sox are making a poor judgment here. But if you want to say Kimbrel sucks, then provide some actual reason why we should expect August / September Kimbrel going forward vs. the April to July version. My point is almost all the commentary on Craig is a bunch of bitching & whining about his performance with us and has little to no objective reasoning. The Sox are capable of making mistakes (cough Tatis), but accusing them of trying to save face here is laughable. Also, I fully disagree with the “deteriorating skills for four years” comment, but I’ve argued against this too many times. Dude was beyond elite for the first few months of the 2021 season, so to act like he’s slowly been losing ability for a while now simply isn’t true.

Look, if they keep Kimbrel (which I hope isn’t the case) and it prevents them from adding a SP or RF, then these guys should be ridiculed. But hopefully this means Jerry is footing a pretty nice budget and holding Kimbrel for a couple months while the relief pitcher market thins out won’t be problematic for us. Then QOing Rodon tomorrow would only reaffirm that point.

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense? I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off. You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause. Did he get injured in June or July? If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form? Was it something mechanical that can be addressed? Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020. See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason. And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value. Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel. Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans. KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit. Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

This post is just stupid.

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly? Why did he suddenly suck? You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

Again, Kimbrel tied for 5th amongst relievers with 2.2 fWAR and was literally the best reliever in baseball over the first four months of the season. If his August & September struggles were spread over the course of the season then he’d be looking at a lot more than a 1/$16M season. GMs are going to evaluate the situation objectively and be far less emotional than White Sox fans who are bitter about giving up Madrigal in the trade.

How do you know that’s what’s driving the decision here? They have a limited budget and aren’t going to jeopardize the rest of their offseason plans to prove themselves right on a deal that’s already failed. I know half this board thinks our front office is incompetent, but there is a method to their madness. They could be 100% wrong, but clearly they’re picking up the option because they think they can extract some sort of value.

I thought it was tomorrow at 4pm, but could be wrong. I think the Kimbrel option decision is due today though.

100% agree on this, but who is going to offer a sizable multi-year offer and lose a pick who has only looked elite for part of one season and has one of the worst track records of health in all of baseball? Let’s say the Sox really want Scherzer at the top of the rotation, it’s massive gamble to offer Rodon the QO IMO. I honestly think there is a chance they pass depending on their plans for the rotation.

I just struggle with assuming he’ll find a multi-year offer he likes when Gausman & Stroman both it was best to accept last offseason. Perhaps a different environment now, but I fully expect him to accept if offered.

The Sox have to bring back Rodon or add an impactful starting pitcher. Honestly, I really struggle what to do with Carlos. He was a legit ace last year before breaking down, but nothing on resume suggests that won’t continue to happen. If you’re going to make a sizable investment in a pitcher, why not go with someone who provides a much after floor? To me, either you offer him the QO with the hope he accepts or simply move on to another direction. There is zero reason to go the multi-year route with him unless it’s the most team friendly deal of all-time and Boras will never agree to something like that.

Keuchel & Lynn both makes $18M+ right now ?‍♂️ As for the budget, I’m waiting to see how the the Rodon & Kimbrel decions go before drawing any conclusions. Them passing on both of them would suggest things might be tight next year, whereas them going for both migh imply a more fruitful budget. We simply have no idea how this will shake out other than we’re looking at a franchise record payroll.

I mean, yes? All depends on the budget Jerry has signed off on. Realistically, failing to offer Rodon a QO means one of two things. 1). The budget is going to be significantly limited this year and we simply can’t afford him with all our other needs. 2). The Sox actually want a starter who is more likely to provide 170+ innings and be a factor in the postseason and are concerned Rodon will accept the QO. Honestly, as much as I want Rodon back, a part of me sees the logic of the latter, especially when there are some good starters who might get shorter term deals. Will be interesting to see what they do with the QO in the next day.

The Giants need four starting pitchers though and I doubt they’ll address all four spots in free agency. Adding a guy like Keuchel provides some certainty while they go out and pursue some of the bigger fish. Obviously it’s got to be at a price point that’s attractive to them, which probably means us eating a little bit of money and giving up a small piece. And with La Stella’s recent surgery, I think that makes it more motivating for them to move him. Plus dude will make $11.5M in 2023 which is pretty high given what 2B are going for nowadays. I don’t know, I just don’t see La Stella being an overly valuable trade chip given the front-loading of his contract and the fact he was injured / underperformed last year. Throw in his latest surgery that puts OD readiness at risk and I think that contract is probably underwater.

I still think there is a chance of a Keuchel for La Stella deal. Might have to throw in some cash and include a small piece like Collins.

Why are you thinking this? Feels like you’ve said this before too.

Is that what you’re hearing?

What cronies are they bringing back?

He acquired two All-Stars last offseason and you could argue a third with Rodon. Grandal was a great addition no matter how much you hate him and he was on the money with trying to get Wheeler (and made the largest offer). What moves are you upset about? I get Keuchel sucked this year and may be cooked, but he did give us a sub 2.00 ERA last year. And sure, go ahead and rip the Kimbrel move, but it was an aggressive go it for now trade deadline deal. He’s had some misses, but greatly overstating how bad he’s been the last couple years.

I was interpreting it as appearances, but perhaps I’m wrong there. Good catch.

It’s at the link you just posted: “2022 Buyout increases $1M each for 53 games finished in 2020, & 2021”

How many trades have happened so far this offseason? I mean, GMs don’t even know who is going to hit free agency yet.