Chicago White Sox

We should start seeing some meaningful trade activity today. Typically the vast majority of moves happen on the final two days before the deadline, with the final day having about 3x the volume that the second to last day has. Based on recent trends, we should expect around 10 trades or so today and close to 30 tomorrow. I’m assuming most of our trades will go down to the wire. Robert is a tricky asset and while I don’t feel Getz’s rumored demands are unreasonable, we are living in a day and age of prospect hugging and teams will try to call our bluff on holding for as long as possible. Tauchman seems like a tomorrow move as all the signaling so far is that we will hold if we don’t get something of value in return. Houser is getting moved, but he feels like more of a backup for teams who can’t land something impactful. My guess is he goes tomorrow, but likely we’ll before the official deadline. My prediction is we see Slater dealt today. Useful player but a rental weak side platoon corner OF is going to have limited value. Find a team willing to give up a lottery ticket and move on. The other possibility is a surprise trade involving one of Sosa, Davis, or Lee. I think Korey is the most likely to get moved out of those three and if it happens, I could see that being today possibly. Otherwise, I expect most of our movement to happen tomorrow.

Pass on Acuna

What reports are you referring to?

Looks like I picked a good game to miss. Also, feels like there is still no plan for Cannon.

I’m referring to the trades in which we acquired Gilbert, Booser, etc. Bannister is clearly a pitching guru, but sometimes guys like that end up getting too cute and overthink things. Just felt like a questionable strategy that hasn’t really worked out so far.

More likely than not Getz (or the front office) make the bulk of lineup decisions.

Speaking of which…what is footlongcomskskeydog saying we are up to? He banned me on Twitter so can’t get them scoops anymore 😰

You want to trade five major leaguers for one questionable prospect?

Yeah, I generally don’t trust multi-sport insiders with less than 1k Twitters followers and believe I have seen this guy make stuff up before prior to deleting from his feed. But could be wrong though.

Is this guy legit at all?

I assumed it was against the rules at this point

Mets fans may be worse than Orioles fans if that is somehow possible. Somehow many of them think they can use Vientos as a key piece in a trade for a TOR starter or other major piece. Whether you believe in the player in the long run or not, his value is very much suppressed at the moment.

The answer is a salary cap and a floor like every other sport. This current model is 100% broken and terrible even if some small market teams can be successful for stretches of time.

Fully agree. The entire bullpen strategy has failed miserably. I get the budget was constrained, but throwing $5M at a semi-interesting relief arm always made more sense to me than signing Rojas and Taylor. And good those trades raise a lot of questions on Bannister.

Still pissed we don’t have one high end reliever to deal.

If only picking up Robert’s $20M option and givng Tucker $700M were mutually exclusive decisions…

He’s been atrocious so far but some of that has been due to BABIP bad luck and some of that has been due to an abnormal batted ball profile (his IFFB rate has nearly doubled since last year and career norms). And as bad as Robert was last year and clearly not 100% physically, he still put up a 90 wRC+ vs. RHP. With his bat speed back up to elite levels, I just don’t this is anything more than a short term blip and I think we are already starting to some normalization occurring in the month of July (he’s over 100 wRC+ against RHP for the month).

Where does it say he’s not on the block? They are just saying they won’t give him away, which may or may not be posturing. And with Crochet, they literally said the same thing at last year’s deadline and held despite a compelling offer from the Phillies. I still lean this is a bluff, but’s not an indefensible position if not.

The rumors are they are willing to give cash. Regardless, trade deadline trades are much less made on the parameters of surplus value and more so on maximizing your chances of making the playoffs or making an extended October run. Robert is a wild card, but his potential impact is probably higher than almost anyone else available. If you’re the Mets or Phillies with a massive CF hole and an otherwise strong team, he’s the exact type of player you roll the dice on to enhance your post season chances IMO. If I were Stearns, I’d 100% be willing to give up a prospect like Clifford who comes with real question marks to have Robert for the stretch run and to also have the option to bring him back at a high, but not unreasonable cost if he keeps performing well.

You prefer no salary cap and the worst parity amongst all major sports?

His xwOBA is basically league average right now…unfortunately his wOBA has not fully normalized yet but we are seeing that happening right now. This idea that he is a bad hitter is wrong. He is certainly flawed, but when healthy, he is an average or better offensive player who plays a premium position and adds value on the bases. I too am ready to move on from the player given his past health issues and general streakiness, but holding him into next season isn’t a terrible idea if no one is willing to even give us a 45 FV prospect for him. It’s a gamble no doubt, but one that might be worth taking on. I’m still hopeful someone will pay up before the deadline and this point all becomes mute.

Which young players would you give playing time to? Guys who can’t even hit in Charlotte? The reality is we have no young players to give the playing time to other than Baldwin. Hopefully that changes very soon, but having a couple veterans who can provide some lineup stability has value.

Robert’s xwOBA is .321, which is about league average for hitter. A guy who can play CF and run the bases like he does is probably a 3.5 win player with that type of offensive production. That would theoretically provide surplus value at 1/$20M. Discount some for injury and it would be about break-even. It also ignores the fact that no player performing like that would ever be available on a one year deal with another team option. It also ignores the fact that Robert has been much better than league average over the past month and might be figuring things out.

Honestly, I am not sure what happens. If they hold him past the deadline and he does bad down the stretch, I don’t think they pick up the option. But if he keeps playing like he has of late then maybe they would? It’s a really bad free agent OF market, which is going to increase the interest in him. And for reference, Bellinger got a 1/$17.5M deal with the Cubs coming off two similar seasons that Robert has been enduring. 1/$20M probably isn’t that far off for a pillow contract estimate.

If what Rosenthal is saying is true, and he’s without question the best insider, then he’s likely telling teams that they need pay up or else he’s going to hold and pick up the option. Interesting this comes not longer after another insider claimed we had already been offered one top 10 prospect for Robert.