Chicago White Sox

I get your point Jack, just think your logic is wrong. The Royals have publically stated they’re going for a quick rebuild and Witt doesn’t fill that strategy when two polished college bats are available.

The Royals took like four or five college arms in the first two rounds of the draft last year, they aren’t taking a HS guy with Adley & Vaughn availble. I could see Baltimore taking Witt with an underslot deal.

This is just plain stupid. Most organizations have a few veterans and/or AAAA types on their AAA rosters. I’m honestly shocked this signing has somehow warranted two pages.

That’s exactly what I’m expecting to happen.

Yeah, you’re probably right about Palka. Between him and Rondon they should be able to cover for Alonso against LHP.

Who are they going to platoon Alonso with? Rondon?

This dude is just AAA filler...I don’t think it’s anything more than that.

Just send Engel down at that point and go with Leury/Jay combo in CF. Far from ideal when you have Eloy & Palka in the corners, but it’s a lost season anyways and Rondon deserves a role on this team.

Financially it could easily happen. The only guy on that list that would likely prove challenging is Cole.

The problem is we couldn’t outbid the Padres for Machado and other teams for lesser free agents (per Rick on the Red Line radio podcast). How do we expect to outbid the legit big spenders for a guy like Cole? Add in the Boras factor and I’m simply not optimistic about our chances. Also, there is some talk that the Astros are trying to work out extensions with Cole & Verlander, although that sounds unlikely.

As I said in the Goldschmidt thread (and will continue to say every time a quality player signs an extension), I’d rather have an impact player for the next 8 seasons than an extra $35M/year of payroll flexibility in 2027 & 2028. But alas, our front office is more concerned with ridiculous long-term concerns than actually trying to fix a dying franchise.

I’ve literally provided four or five examples in this thread that suggest otherwise. Look at what Donaldson, Arenado, & Bryant made or will make through the arbitration process for their first seven years. Eloy will make similar money to those guys. And you completely glossed over the fact that most of these deals buy out at least two free agent years. That is the biggest issue I have with this deal.

I think there is some upside if he’s a top 10 hitter, but even then it’s not a ton IMO. Like I showed previously, Kris Bryant will likely make a similar amount of money as Eloy will over their first six seasons. Year 7 and in particular year 8 have upside, but the commitment in the first six years is assuming is a legit stud from the get go. This is all about that 8th year of control and IMO we should probably have gotten two free agents given the unprecedented guarantee we’re making.

You’re focusing on dollars (which are still way more player friendly regardless of inflation), when these contracts from a team standpoint are about buying out future free agent years. With all four deals I mentioned we got two to three free agent years in exchange for the guarantees we were making. For Eloy, who has never had a major league at-bat, we got one single free agent year in return for an unprecedented financial commitment. Again, I don’t hate this deal by any means, just don’t think it’s very team friendly. It is an absolutely incredible deal for Eloy however as he gets paid like a top 10 hitter before making one single major league at-bat and only has to give up one, below-market (if he’s as good as advertised) free agent year.

Are we now comparing Eloy to arguably the best player in baseball history?

That’s not an accurate comparison. The Cubs will have paid Bryant (an MVP winner) a total of $26M for his first five seasons. He will have to increase his 2019 salary of $13M by ~30% next year just to match Eloy’s guaranteed money over his first six years. That will likely happen if he has a rebound in performance, but the difference between what he’ll get paid and what we just guaranteed Eloy should be minimal for those same seasons. Yes, there is some upside in year 7 as well, but this is 100% about buying a single free agent year. That’s where almost all the value in this extension resides. And I’ll keep saying it, but I don’t dislike the move. I just don’t think it’s that team friendly compared to many other extensions including the Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Anderson deals. I think Hahn/KW overpaid here a bit relative to other benchmarks, but if that’s the price of locking down Eloy for an 8th year so be it. I’m just not going to sugar coat this deal and make it look this is some steal when IMO it isn’t.

You’re overinflating the savings here. We bought out one free agent year, yet you’re treating it like two. You’re also ignoring the fact we’re paying him $9M above what he would have made in his pre-arb seasons.

I don’t know man, this really seems like an overpay to me. Bregman just got $100M for five addional seasons (including two free agent years). However, when you factor in his pre-arb salaries from 2017 to 2019, they essentially got eight seasons of control for a total of $102M. This is for a durable 24 year old coming off a 7.6 win season. Meanwhile, Eloy who has never had a single at-bat in the majors and has a history of soft tissue injuries is potentially getting $75M over eight years. Yes, only $43M of that is guaranteed (still unprecedented), but we’re talking about $27M difference between him and one of the best young players in all of baseball. While I’m glad we’ve bought out a free agent year, this is extension is absolutely crazy to me from a benchmarking standpoint. Again, I don’t dislike the move, just think it’s way more player friendly than team friendly based on recent extension & arbitration figures.

Sure, but Giolito’s last start should have nothing to do with whether you’re optimistic on him or not. And unless his velocity was down in his last start, it shouldn’t be used an argument against what Law said. I’m down on Giolito right now, but that’s entirely because he’s a headcase who was the worst qualified starter in baseball last year and not because of some spring training appearances that basically mean nothing.

Like I said, I’m not upset about this, but they are essentially giving him guaranteed money that assumes he’s one of the best young players in all of baseball (very little potential savings there vs. what he’d likely get via arbitration) in exchange for one free agent year at a potentially moderate discount. I’m not sure where you’re getting $30M to $50M in potential savings here as we’re basically prepaying for star production.

Keith Law said that he still believes Giolito can have a breakout performance because his velocity has returned. You said “has he seen his last start”. Either that’s a hot take or you’re moving the goalposts.

Has there been any talk of when he’ll be ready for actual game action? I’m far less concerned about his body type at the moment and more concerned about his lack of actual in-game development for a year. It’s his bat that will carry him regardless of position and we need him to face live pitching to work the necessary adjustments.

I’m not upset about this extension, but this Rosenthal commentary pretty much sums up why this is definitely an overpay on the Sox’s part:

The amount of hot takes driven off some spring training outings is pretty nuts around here. This shit is more or less meaningless, especially for pitchers IMO.

Great post and another example of Hahn/KW completely mid-reading the market. Glad we have that $35M/year saved in 2027 & 2028 instead of an actual good player for 2019 to 2026.