Eminor3rd

Ugh, Greinke is so good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/q...-hitting-coach/ Sounds like what would happen if I were the hitting coach. "Hey, you guys are good, don't change anything... just swing at good pitches and take bad ones."

I wouldn't be shocked if it was Santiago that was moving...

Would LOVE to sneak in and snatch Dempster cheap.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/k...-chicken-salad/ Nothing you don't already know, but nice to see some praise from well-respected, neutral minds.

"Sacks packed with seamen."

We need a starter

Oh, not Guthrie, please. Not Richard either if he's going to cost prospects. What's respectable about a 4+ ERA in Petco?

QUOTE (RZZZA @ Jul 18, 2012 -> 11:46 AM) Trading offense for pitching seems counterproductive to me...its like plugging one hole and creating another, isn't it? We cant afford to lose anybody from our line up now Depends on magnitude. Trading 0.5-1.0 wins of offense + prospects for 2-3 wins of pitching will make a difference. But no, shuffling some offensive value for similar pitching value probably won't.

I just want to point out how HUGE a series win against BOS would be given that we are throwing Axelrod, Humber, and Hernandez against them. Setting up the DET series with Sale, Peavy, and Quintana could be one of the pivotal decisions of this season.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jul 18, 2012 -> 10:18 AM) What's funny is I'm not really a prospect guy but you're adopting so extreme a position that I look like one. I'm generally in favor of trading unproven talent for proven talent, but I am more willing to take a look at the balance sheet. The better the prospect, the more likely you are to get burned by the trade, but since they're prospects their bust rates tend to be fairly high, and many trades for veterans therefore come with acceptable risk levels. With Viciedo, he's performing decently with flashes of greatness in MLB at a very young age, so his bust rate is almost nonexistent (barring injury which is equally likely to occur in the guy you're trading for). In fact, I'd hesitate to call him a prospect. The odds of him succeeding brilliantly in the future is relatively high, so you'd better get something good for years to come to offset those odds. Your premise is correct here: that Viciedo has a higher floor than many prospects because he's shown some level of competency at the ML level. But I think you're taking it way too far when you say his bust rate is almost non-existent. As I said in more detail a few posts back, he's put up 0.3 WAR this year and on pace for a well below average ML season, and his Achilles' Heel is his plate discipline, which is something that is definitely NOT a sure thing for him to develop. He may simply not be able to recognize pitches well enough to realize his potential. If he doesn't do that, we have Delmon Young. If he doesn't improve significantly, he's going to have a pretty disappointing career.

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Jul 18, 2012 -> 09:40 AM) There's a guy in the Sox lineup that makes many outs and I would love to see him get traded this off season, that person being Adam Dunn. I'd make Viciedo a DH and make a trade for a player like Pence. Dunn's OBP of .362 is second on the team only to Konerko. Dunn makes fewer outs than ANYONE in the Sox lineup other than Konerko. Don't let the strikeout totals and the mass media hype machine fool you.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 18, 2012 -> 09:40 AM) It's not what he hits, it's WHEN he hits. Take away those two three run bombs against the Yankees and Royals and we're only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Tigers and in danger of being passed this weekend. Yes, I acknowledge this. But my point is that hit distribution is not predictive, it's just worked out well this year. There no reason to believe it will or won't work out the same way over the remainder of the season. That's what I mean by mentioning the timely homeruns QUOTE (WHarris1 @ Jul 18, 2012 -> 09:46 AM) While talking about certain metrics and how they translate in terms of average, above average, etc. Viciedo has an ISO of .195 this year. .200 typically translates as "great". He is 23. wOBA and wRC+ account for his excellent power, and weigh it properly with the other factors, like his lack of ability to get on base. The most complete picture is with these linear weights-based metrics.

Guys, I'm not a Viciedo hater, but I think you're overstating his contribution this year. He's at a 98wRC+, which means that wehn you adjust for league and park, he's been a tick below average offensively for left fielders. This, combined with slightly negative defensive and baserunning ratings put him at 0.3 WAR. ZiPs projects him to end the year with 0.8 WAR -- an "average" MLB player usually sits around 2.0 WAR for a full year. This is mostly driven by his sub-.300 OBP. Yes, he is 23 and has lots of upside and will probably improve, but so far this year, the only difference between Viciedo and Delmon Young has been some timely homeruns.

The key here when evaluating giving up a guy like DV is remembering who you're getting back. If we had to giveup DV to get Greinke for this year and an extension, you just do it, and here's why: Greinke is a 29 year old top-10 SP in the MLB. Healthy, he's a 6-7 win pitcher over the next few years. Guys like DV have the potential to be 6-7 win guys, but they almost never are. Prospects are super important because it's impossible to build lasting success without cost-controlled talent, but when you're in the middle of a race to the postseason, you jump at the chance to give up a lottery ticket for the real thing. Now, if we're talking about some veteran with a year or two left like Dempster, or if we're talking about a pure half season rental, you pull the reins back. But in a win-now situation, if you can get Greinke for the next few years, by trading a couple guys that have a 1% chance of being that valuable, you gotsta pull the trigger.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Jul 17, 2012 -> 02:44 PM) Kenny Williams Jr. !...................oh, nevermind Oh, that would be hilarious. If KW Jr. is included as a throw-in in a big-time deal. You know, that is a fantastic setup for a baseball movie scene. Some off-the-wall cocky GM knows how bad some desperate GM wants his star pitcher, so he insists that the desperate GM include his son in the deal, even though the cocky GM knows the son is useless. Now the desperate GM has to choose between a family rift and blowing a legitimate shot at the postseason. Gold.

I'm trying to think of who (prospects-wise) I wouldn't want to give up for Greinke, assuming there's a good chance to extend him. I think it's nobody. As a rental, that's tougher.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 12, 2012 -> 01:46 PM) NOOOOOOOO on Volquez This^ Volquez would give up homers at a Stewartian level in the Cell. I'll take Street though.

A sweep of the Royals here gets us a new SP/RP from the trading market, methinks.

Sickels mentioned only Molina and Sanchez in his "Honorable Mentions" section for his recent top 120 update. So he presumably thinks that Sanchez is the second best Sox prospect (not including this year's draft). Not making an argument, just thought it was interesting.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jul 10, 2012 -> 08:58 AM) If you make a trade for a SP with an expirering contract you BETTER extend him right away. One thing you have to remember is Peavy's big contract is off the books after this season so that gives the team a better chance at signing another pitcher to a long term deal. Not to mention the Sox may opt to no take that option of Floyd giving them even more flexibility. I think we have a much better chance in acquirering a mid-level starter over a guy like Grienke/Hamels. At least that is the case if we want to keep Viciedo. It's true, though I'm sure KW was planning on Peavy coming off the books while negotiating with Danks too. Also, I don't see us giving up Quetzacoatl, because that opens up the same hole we fill with getting a SP. That being said, there's no one in our system I wouldn't move for Greinke or Hamels if we would extend them -- the lottery ticket type prospects we have are such incredible longshots to become a players like Greinke/Hamels, and both guys are plenty young enough to be worthwhile signings. I just don't think KW or JR want to throw a $100m contract at a pitcher right now.

The Greinke mental thing is overblown. He's a top 5 or 10 starter in the MLB right now in an environment stacked with amazing starters. I'd love to have him. I'd love to extend him. That said, we won;t get him because he won;t be worth the talent unless we extend him, and I believe most of that money went to Danks.

I'm afraid he's going to be very expensive after this year, but not likely at all to repeat these numbers. At 35, this smells of the kind of situation where it's really hard to let the guy walk, but might be easily the right decision. I like him, would love to keep him, but not for 3/36 or anything.

I just don't see someone whose heart became the morning star getting beat by Nick Swisher tonight.

Konerko DFA?