ChiSox59

Yah, I don't think things are quite that cut and dry. I am sure Boras is aware of who has interest and to what extent. If he is going into this blind, there is no way he is going to opt out this offseason. May as well take the $23.75M and opt out next year.

Timing on free agency is really tough to predict, but if JDM opts out, I feel like his timing may be a bit quicker than that. I would assume he has a pretty good idea that someone is willing to beat his current 3/$63 he has left on his deal if he does in fact opt out today, At this point, I think JD doesn't out out, takes his $23.75M for 2020, and then opts out after next year when his salary reduces to $19.35M. Going to be tough for him to beat $23.75M AAV for 2020.

I don't think anyone really thinks Wheeler is a "top of the rotation" pitcher. He is a solid #3 on a team with a good rotation, obviously better on shitty teams. He would be a nice rotation piece on all 30 clubs, but this guy isn't an elite starter by any means, and not sure anyone here thinks that.

Going into last offseason, the expectation was that Machado and Harper would both beat $300 million.

And Hamels, and Abreu, and Miley, and Kuechel, and Gregorious. But yah, I guess the other half were relatively close.

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler. While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

Here is the article for those wondering: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/ Some pretty good values in there. Quite a bit lower than being discussed here Here are the top 15, and then a few that may be of interest. Cole - 7/$242 Rendon - 7/$211 Strasburg - 5/$150 Donaldson 3/$71 JD Martinez - 3/$77 Grandal - 4/$70 Ozuna - 4 / $70 Bumgarner - 4/$64 Wheeler - 4/$68 Gregorius - 3/$48 Castellanos - 4/$56 Keuchel - 3/$45 Ryu - 2/$32 Moustakas - 2/$32 Gibson 3/$45 Puig 3/$39 Hamels 2/$28 Gardner 1/$13 Encarnacion 1/$11 Miley 1/$9 Chris Martin 2/$12 Jose Abreu - 1/$11

I think the Sox gotta give Abreu the QO if he’s even the slightest bit interested in testing the market. If someone offers him something stupid that we shouldn’t match, at least get something for it. And if he takes it, that’s not a terrible result at this point.

I'd honestly be fine with Mazara if the rest of the FA adds are quality.

There is PLENTY to spend it on.

Likely because he was forced to play in the field (no DH) and wore down as the season dragged on...like most catchers do. Oh look - another positive to signing Grandal!

If Abreu requires a 3 year deal, are you still in that boat? Also, JDM and Grandal had the same OBP last season. JDM only slightly higher for his career. I don't think anyone thinks Grandal is a better overall hitter than JDM. It just comes down to fit, handedness, positional flexibility, etc. Grandal checks every box, JDM checks 1. Again, I'd be fine with JDM. But he really does complicate things.

EE has literally no market. His best on paper fit may be the Mariners, and they just traded him away. Maybe he goes back there, but I doubt it. Someone will sign him, but I think he'll be pretty cheap. Which is why I picked the Rays. Seems like a Rays move if it gets cheap enough.

Soler spent 2/3 of his time at DH. And bWAR is garbage. JDM would be great. I am not going to be disappointed if the Sox sign him. But Grandal is an exponentially better fit for so many reasons that have already been explained in depth. I guess we’ll just gotta see how it plays out. But the whole “pass on Grandal” take is pretty silly.

JD Martinez is a not a major league quality OF. Yet you think he can play the OF everyday. But then you’re concerned about Grandals defense, despite him being widely considered at worst an average defensive catcher. Seems inconsistent.

Frare was in fact awful this year. Both in the bigs and AAA. But he’s got a great arm, throws left handed and is still just 26. Of all the guys you listed, he is definitely the safest, I’d be surprised to see him outrighted or DFAd this winter. He’s the first lefty reliever depth piece after Bummer and Fry with Osish now gone. But ya, point remains. Sox 40 man is effectively at like 27/28 guys who will be there after ST.

Frare will definitely be safe. Others maybe not.

For shits and giggles, I am going to take this a step further a guess teams and deals Cole - 8 years, 255 million (Yankees) Rendon - 8 years, 245 million (Nats) Stras - 6 years, 200 million (Nats) Bumgarner - 5 years, $145 million (Twins) Chapman - 5 years 85 million (Dodgers) JD Martinez - 4 years, 80 million (Rangers) Ryu - 4 years, 88 million (Angels) Donaldson - 4 years, 82 million (Twins) Wheeler - 5 years, 98 million (White Sox) Ozuna - 4 years, 78 million (Cardinals) Grandal - 4 years, 72 million (White Sox) Odorizzi - Accepts QO (Twins) Hamels - 4 years, 68 (Angels) Didi - 4 years, 55 million (Giants) Keuchel - 4 years, 62 million (Reds) Castellanos - 4 years, 70 million (Cubs) Miley - 2 years, 25 million (Blue Jays) Encarnacion - 1 year, 12 million (Rays) Moustakas - 2 years, 27 million (Rangers) Puig - 3 years, 43 million (DBacks) Will Smith - 4 years, 41 million (Rockies) Will Harris - 3 years, 32 million (Astros) Betances - 2 years, 18 million (White Sox) Roark - 1 year, 13 million (Orioles) Pineda 2 year, 18 million (Twins)

It’s unbelievable the amount that is brought up.

You want a lineup of 8 right handeded hitters and Moncada? I would bet any amount of money that doesn’t happen. There is a zero percent chance.

Aren’t you the guy pushing to sign JD Martinez to play RF and suggesting NL teams won’t shy away?

Except Grandal is a catcher. And McCann is a FA after 2020. And Collins is never going to be an everyday catcher. Even if Grandal regresses to .225/.320/.400 type player in the AL, he’d still very valuable as an everyday catcher. Sure, he’ll play some 1B and DH to stay fresh and get McCann/Collins some reps but this isn’t your typical Adam Dunn / Adam Laroche type DH signing.

$65M should get it done

Could theoretically benefit the sox a bit though, as they'd be paying him less as our guys are getting more expensive, giving us a tad more to spend elsewhere. If Sox are ever worried about luxury tax issues, I'll be a very shocked man.

I mean...I am not defending the move at all, but if you weren't going to use it, may as well get something for it, even if its just saving $500k. The fact that they didn't spend it is what is a fucking joke. But that is not new information - we've known that for awhile. Sure, someone else could pop up, but I think most guys worth signing have been signed, or are already being courted by another team. As balta suggested, I do hope someone asks Hahn specifically about this move and the Jones move at Soxfest.