ChiSox59

I really don't see the JDM fit. Sure, he'd be a great bat to have in the lineup. But if the Sox are serious about keeping Abreu around, it just makes no sense. It should be either JDM OR Abreu. If the Sox want JDM AND Abreu, you better give Abreu a max 2 year deal and be prepared to let him walk after that. Unless the Sox plan to move Vaughn this winter, I just really don't see how all these 1B/DH types fit long term.

HARD PASS if Wheeler gets into $150-160M range. That is insane.

I’ve said it before with regards to Yermin, but Sox likely feel they had a better shot of keeping him in the org this way. He’s unlikely to be taken in the rule 5 draft as a DH, cause he can’t catch. If Sox added him to 40 man and then DFAd or out righted him if they needed the spot, he’d be gone to another team that wouldn’t have to keep him on the 25 man all season. Yermin probably isn’t a major league player, so I’m not going to get too worked up on it, but I would venture a guess the Sox felt it would be easier to retain him as depth this way.

I agree with everything you said here. Another good post. I am hopeful that Madrigal helps ease some of that pain. He’s a guy that fits what the Sox have lacked for some time with his ability to put the ball in play, play elite defense and low K rate. But yah, if Moncada takes the same strides at 2B, obviously having Machado is still a home run. I wanted to guy more than anything. But I’m also willing to realize 8 months later that things can still work out ok if the Sox are smart. But history isn’t necessarily on their side.

It was quite a blunder, but 8 months later as we sit today, owing Machado 9/$270M and not having Moncada at 3B where be is arguably already a better overall 3B at a fraction of the price...not sure we’re in a meaningfully better spot. The money is still there. It didn’t go away.

Zero chance Abreu, Grandal and JDM would ever be together on this team. Abreu seems to be a given. We can debate the merits of that, but seems 95%+ chance that occurs. Then it’s sign JDM for 3-4 years and block Vaughn. Or sign Grandal and rotate DH/C/1B between Abreu, Grandal, McCann and Collins. Then in 21 Vaughn takes over 1B and Abreu becomes primary DH, and sign a b/u catcher for Grandal, or keep McCann around. Doubtful Collins is part of the equation at that point, but at least you gave him 2020 to see what you have. He checks a lot of boxes this team is missing so he deserves a full season look.

edit: mean to quote @Eminor3rd, but seems my phone sucks at message boarding. I really liked your Mous take, but as I’ve read more of your thoughts on it, just seems like what you’re proposing / think is the right thing to do is a perpetual rebuild. Sure the Sox are still “building”, and I too have serious reservations about JD Martinez and Abreu coexisting on a the roster for multiple seasons, but the Sox can’t play in the middle for any more than 1 more season. They have limited long term commitments. They have money to spend. They have a good young cost controlled core. Their openings are at positions that should be easier to fill. There is no reason to punt the control of Moncada who could be a legitimate star in this game. They just need to deploy the money intelligently. The chances of them signing Cole is minimal, but go out at get Wheeler, sign Grandal, sign a stop gap SP, trade for a RF and go to battle. Will that team make the playoffs? Probably not. But it should be around contention and fun to watch, and then the entire team returns the next season with 1 more year under its belt. Move Abreu to DH, get Vaughn in the mix and see what you have in 2021. Just don’t see how the Sox could toil around for multiple more seasons as you seem to suggest.

This is a good post. Moustakas is a fine back up option / plan D for a year. You could do a lot worse. But he’s not a great fit as the primary DH.

Yah, I mean I doubt he’d be taken but he’s eligible and would at least make the list of guys Sox consider protecting. Guys like Kubat, Adams and Zangari are also eligible, but highly doubt Sox would even consider protecting them.

Rutherford, Lambert, Dunning, Flores, Hansen, Burdi, Thompson are all rule 5 eligible and would have a chance to get taken.

Sounds about right. Probably a safe bet that at least half of Covey, Palka, Vieria, Ruiz, Zavala, Mederios and Fulmer dont survive the next several weeks on the 40 man.

Yes thank you. 32.

Subtract impending FA in Nova, Castillo, Santiago, Detwiler and likely nontenders in Osich and Yolmer and you’re at 29. Add back Kopech, Rodon and Burr and you’re at 32. Jay on 60 day so not on current 40 man but0 will be a FA as well.

A little surprised to see them cut bait on Cordell. Definitely not the others.

Right - which is quite literally why we're having this discussion...

The part you're kind of ignoring in your calculus is how the Mets are going to get all these guys to play. Conforto and McNeil both take corner spots. McNeil may occasionally spell Cano at 2B, in which case I assume Smith is taking reps in the OF. Then you have Cespedes. Unless they plan to put McNeil at 3B regularly, and put Lowrie (who they just gave a 2/$20M deal to last winter) on the bench - but McNeil is not an everyday IF. Something has to give. Maybe that something is trading McNeil or Conforto instead of Nimmo, but really they have to do something. With respect to the Sox system - ya the 2019 season was pretty shitty for Sox prospects not named Robert/Madrigal/Stiever. I do think we still have some names that have some real trade value outside of the top 4 - specifically Dunning, Walker, Stiever - and to a lesser extent Rutherford and Adolfo. I think there are pieces there to make a move, but I understand your reluctance. I also think there is some merit to giving the Rutherford/Adolo/Basabe trio one more year to try to claim RF for the future without blocking them with a long term RF via trade isn't the worst idea. Which is where 1 year stop gaps via trade or FA, or even a guy like Mazara start to make more sense. I still have decently high hopes for Adolfo - the other two not so much. If someone like Nimmo, or Gregory Polonco, or David Dahl cost too much - I prefer they just go the stop gap route.

Another in a long list of reasons why Grandal is better fit than JDM.

Yah, I have a hard time seeing anyone give up a top 50 prospect for a guy who has been hurt for large portion of 2/3 seasons he's been a big leaguer, and only has 3 years of arbitration control left. He's a fantastic fit for the White Sox, but he'd obviously still be a roll of the dice with his injury history. Perhaps the Mets would prefer to just hold onto him - totally reasonable to think that. Hard to really handicap what BVW will do, but based on what I just described a few minutes ago, I think its also reasonable that he will be available this offseason for the right price. If the "right price" to the Mets starts with Madrigal and they won't get off it, I'd rather just trade for someone else. I think Madrigal is considerably more valuable than Nimmo, and I've been one of the loudest proponents for acquiring him, and believe I was was the first to start mentioning Nimmo here months and months ago before 80% of the board jumped on the wagon.

Start with....ya, I can agree with that. Mets have a crowded OF situation. Conforto, McNeil both need to play the corners. Sure, McNeil can play the IF, but he's not very good at it and they already have plenty of guys to play 2B and 3B. Then you have Dom Smith who will get some time in LF and RF as he is completely blocked at 1B now. Then you have Cespedes under contract for $29.5 million in 2020, so they may want to try to work him in as well (though I doubt they are counting on him). Point being - they're pretty jammed up in the OF, and they're very lefty heavy. I am not saying they're going to get out there looking to get rid of Nimmo, but he definitely makes sense as someone they could move. I do think Stiever/Dunning + Walker/Rutherford + back end top 30 guy gets you pretty close to a deal. Obviously they would prefer Steiver and Walker to Dunning/Rutherford, but just throwing some names out there that could make sense.

I don't think Brandon Nimmo is going to require a top 40 prospect in the game that is basically MLB ready. We'll have to give up a couple pieces we'd rather keep to get Nimmo or a guy like Nimmo, but its not going to be from Robert-Madrigal-Vaugh-Cease-Kopech, etc., group.

Still on the Mookie Betts bit, I see.

Sure, but he's a much more attractive target as a signing rather than giving up assets to acquire. Probably wouldn't cost a ton, but Boston isn't going to just give him away. He also has another opt out after next season in his current deal, so another reason why that route is less than ideal.

I will take Moncada and Kopech over Gio, Lopez and Robles, especially when we used those negotiations to acquire 2 of 3 pieces discussed in a different trade not a significantly less valuable piece anyway. Hahn takes a lot of crap around here, but he hit an absolute home runs on Sale, Eaton and Quintana trades. A++. Not directed at you DA, but people say its easy to trade elite players - well, go look at what the Marlins got for Yelich, and get back to me.

Woah, took that one to the extreme. No sane person would take 1/$3M over 2/$30M. No one

Huh? Most players who receive QOs didn’t even have the ability to opt out.