To get the #2 seed the Bears have to beat the Lions or the Eagles have to lose to Washington (I wouldn't put money on that happening with Philly).
If the Bears get the #2 seed they get the Packers.
If they get the #3 seed they probably get the Rams.
Regarding the team overall, one of the top two priorities this off season has to be getting some game wreckers on defense, guys teams have to specifically plan for (and fear.)
You simply can't expect to outscore everybody all the time or hope for luck at the end to get you through.