TheFutureIsNear

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 10, 2015 -> 07:47 PM) Maybe I'm confused -- what does that have to do with overvaluing the defensive contributions of a RF? Not a whole lot on that topic, but still on the discussion of defense being overvalued in my opinion. I originally had a longer message but my phone magically deleted it lol...essentially it suggests that defensive position is probably over valued in calculating war due to the fact that it hasn't been updated to the modern game. Only a .6 difference in war between Chris Davis and Jason Heyward according to that more up to date model. But I'm assuming someone such as yourself would laugh if a team gave Davis the same contract as Heyward but 2 years shorter. With increasing K's and advanced scouting that have shifts on every other at bat the idea of paying a guy based on defense is a gamble I wouldn't take. I don't think Heyward is worth a dime over $130M personally, 7 years 18M per. Guess we'll see who's right in the long run.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 10, 2015 -> 03:34 PM) There's been some talk/research over the last year or so about this -- there appears to be substantial evidence that the impact of a plus CF vs a plus corner OF is quite overrated. Essentially, when you control for catchability, zone overlap, and the actual difference between the high end defenders and low end ones, the CF doesn't receive nearly as many extra chances as people assume. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-outfie...ctually-matter/ Funny, I started doing some research after I posted that and found this really interesting article on fangraphs as well. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-we-unde...he-slugger-now/ Your article did make a good bit of sense though as far as the CF/RF thing goes, although in my opinion I'd say they are assuming kind of a lot with some of their #'s. Kinda shocking to me that we are still using data that is a decade+ old to evaluate current players though. Like I said, a like of the sabr stuff still goes over my head, but I don't think it takes a mathematician to figure out that the game has changed pretty drastically since the early 00's.

So much emphasis on defense...for a RF'er? If I'm responsible for paying an OF'er that isn't a huge run producer (Heyward isn't) he damn well better be 1 of the best defensive CF'ers in the game. I just don't see how a RF has that much impact on the game with his defense honestly. Maybe it's a crude/out dated way of looking at the game, but I just think defensive metrics have gone way out of control. Especially when we are talking about non premium defensive positions. And I am aware that Heyward is more than capable of playing CF, but there just isn't a large enough sample size of him doing it especially well for the kind of investment he's going to get in my opinion.

I would take a risk on either Fuenmayor or Blash as RH DH platoon options if either lasts til 10. I think we have the flexibility to carry an extra guy like that with Saladino, Sanchez, and Trayce having great versatility defensively. If not I always like the option of taking a kid who can throw 98 and seeing what happens. I've seen enough from the likes of Putnam, Webb, Carrol, ect to take a risk on someone new

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 10, 2015 -> 12:48 AM) I wonder if the Sox change things up and talk to Cinci about Jay Bruce. He wouldn't cost the Sox top prospects, his contract should fit within the sox budget and provides power from the left side. Bruce makes 12.5M in 16 with an option for 13M in '17 with a 1M buyout. I'd rather find someone else but Bruce wouldn't be the worst option either. Only slight problem is that Jay Bruce forgot how to hit and isn't good in the field either. He's been a negative player for 2 straight years.

I don't think Corbin is comparable to Rodon honestly. And Q is better than Miller by pretty much every statistic you could use.

Anybody think Montas, Micah, Avi, and Jordan Guerrero gets it done for Frazier? And if so would you want to do it from our side?

I'm guessing people saw JB and just assumed shuck. Not sure why Oakland would want him. But this is a great deal either way. Really surprised that's all it took

Don't know why but I have a bad feeling about this...

Dodgers have some pieces available I would think. Enrique Hernandez, Jose Peraza, and Alex Guerrero all seemingly don't have a starting spot. None are great obviously, but all are interesting in their own right at different values. I'd imagine the Dodgers would like to unload Guerrero at this point, but he has a decent price tag and can opt out after being traded. We'd have to get him to agree not to do that before acquiring him.

I don't see how a non-playoff team with arguably the worst minor position player talent in all of baseball can be talking about trading their best prospect. Just makes no sense to me. There's no 1 player that is going to turn this team into a WS contender, so unless he's part of a Q package, or something along the lines, that nets us 3-4 top prospects back Anderson shouldn't be discussed.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 10:53 AM) I agree with you 100%. If the Sox would have traded Trayce for Lawrie a year ago this site would have been ecstatic. Then Trayce comes up and plays well in just a small handful of games and suddenly he's the future? It seems that people like to ignore the fact that the guy put up just low .700 OPSs in the minors and is actually 3 months older than Avisail Garcia who most on this board have written off and who had vastly superior AAA numbers. Trayce is a 4th OF until he proves otherwise as far as I'm concerned. The potential is obviously there, but how many guys have ever succeed in the majors after being unable to hit effectively past high A? I'm sure there are some examples, but most have probably been after a change of scenery though.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 08:57 AM) Me too, although I'm leery of what it would cost the Sox in terms of prospects. Beane trading a player (Reddick) going into their last season before FA would be a very Beane-like thing to do. There's always Montas....I know we shouldn't be looking to trade a power arm like his, but if he isn't going to have a rotation spot this year and we aren't going to commit to him in the bullpen then I think we should seriously consider moving him now while he has a good amount of value. Never know what could happen if we let him sit in the minors for 1 more year, plus we still have Adams and Fullmer behind him. But you're absolutely right. Getting a guy like Reddick would be a much better idea than spending 100M+ and losing a draft pick on Upton. Does Montas, Avi, May, and Guerrero get us Reddick and Lawrie? May/Guerrero could be changed to their liking, but no one inside our top 8 prospects.

Avi, Engel, May, Webb, Putnam, Beck, Lowry, Leyer, Wheeler, Wendelken, Fry, Jaye....Just keep the package to 1 of those OF's and 1 of those pitchers and it's a good deal for us. Hopefully Hahan doesn't deviate too far from a package like that.

The good thing about Lowrie is that it shouldn't stop us from looking for a true 3B. Sliding Lowrie over to 2B and getting a slugging 3B (who can also field) would probably be ideal. May not happen this offseason, but just something to keep in mind.

Ughh...we needed a package like this. I really hope Hahn didn't turn any calls down from AZ for pitching. He also should be making it loud and clear across the league Q is available. A package like this (and Q is better than Miller) can seriously turn this franchise in the right direction...and quickly too

cardinals definitely have a curious roster right now...something else has to be coming.

I hope the Cubs do get Miller. That way Hahn has leverage on a Q trade to AZ. Bring back our new starting 3B + a starting OF along with a pitcher and all of a sudden the franchise is heading in a new direction and we still would have $ to spend Eaton LF Inciarte CF Upton RF Abreu 1B Melky DH Lamb 3B Avila/Navarro C Saladino SS Sanchez 2B

Probably grasping at straws but, Could the Nats possibly have an interest to get LaRoche back? They have Zimmerman at 1st, but he hasn't played 100 games since 2013. Plus they obviously need help in the locker room so a vet like LaRoche could make some sense.

14th in MLB in team ERA 28th in runs scored It's not that hard of a concept to figure out why the GM would be talking about offense and not defense to the general public. Now, does the defense need to be improved? Absolutely, there's no denying we stink at several key areas. But how about we get capable hitters that don't suck in the field 1st? To me defense and baserunning are things good teams improve on to get over the hump and deeper into the playoffs once a pitching staff and capable lineup have been established. We still need to figure out the later part or defense is irrelevant. If you're an AL team and you can't even score 4 runs a game it won't matter if you have the greatest defense ever. And besides, not paying Alexei $10M was a 1st key step in improving the D. It's obvious and known that we are trying to upgrade both 3b and RF, so if we can get guys who are at least average defenders at both of those spots + an improvement over Alexei at SS (saladino is already a huge upgrade) we all of a sudden don't have a horrible defense already.

To me Avi for Lawrie makes a lot of sense. Maybe we have throw in a pitching prospect too, but shouldn't have to be anyone in our top 10. Beck would probably be ideal, but maybe a guy like wheeler, jaye, or Lowry.

Sign Upton Trade Avi + a decent prospect for Lawrie Bring back Alexei last minute Sound about right?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 08:59 PM) How does Thompson platoon with 2 guys in this scenario? Neither Parra not LaRoche should play against lefties. Didn't say it was a bullet proof plan lol. Didn't even realize Para was that bad against lefties. Just throwing a general scenario out there. Basically, would adding 1 slightly above average middle IF and OF to go with Frazier be enough to propel us to the playoffs?

I'm not sure myself so throwing it out there: If we were to trade for Frazier (not involving fullmer/anderson) and then sign 2 marginally priced free agents would we be legit contenders for at least a wild card spot? Say Gerrardo Parra and Asdrubal Cabrerra. C- Avila/Navarro 1b- Abreu 2b- Cabrerra 3b- Frazier ss- Saladino/sanchez lf- Melky cf- Eaton rf- Parra/Thompson dh- Laroche/Thompson Same rotation with EJ

I'd definitely trade for Frazier but Anderson and Fullmer are without a doubt off the table. Montas, Micah, Avi? If it took 1 more piece I might throw in 1 of Engle/May or Guerrero but that's about as far as I'd go. Not sure if that would be enough, but if it's not I'd look else where. He's a nice piece, but he alone it's turning us into a playoff team.