Timmy U

Here’s my theory of what things may look like in a month. Feel free to point out that I am likely very wrong. Mason Adams, rep, Aldrin Batista, rhp Prelander Berroa, rhp * Cam Booser, lhp Sean Burke, rhp *Ky Bush, lhp Jonathan Cannon, rhp Juan Carela, rhp *Fraser Ellard, lhp Jairo Iriarte, rhp Yoendrys Gomez, rhp Wikelman Gonzalez, rhp *Bryan Hudson, lhp Jordan Leasure, rhp Davis Martin, rhp Tanner McDougal, rhp *Shane Murphy, lhp Peyton Pallette, rhp Shane Smith, rhp Grant Taylor, rhp Drew Thorpe, rhp Mike Vasil, rhp Steven Wilson, rhp Korey Lee, c #Edgar Quero, c Kyle Teel, c #Brooks Baldwin,ss/2b/3b/of Tim Elko, 1b Curtis Mead, 1b/3b/2b Chase Meidroth, inf *Colson Montgomery, ss Bryan Ramos, 3b Lenyn Sosa, 2b/3b/1b Miguel Vargas, 1b/3b/dh *Andrew Benintendi, of Luis Robert, of * Mike Tauchman, of (arb 3) Rule 5 Eligible but leaving off *Samuel Zavala, of Duncan Davitt, rhp Ben Peoples, rhp% Eric Adler, rhp% Adisyn Coffey, rhp% *Tyler Schweitzer, lhp Wilfred Veras, of DJ Gladney, of Connor McCullough, rhp

There’s a lot to criticize the Getz regime on, but their performance in the Rule 5 draft seems to be a pretty thin reed. Drohan wasn’t a sexy pick, but a lefty with starter traits who had success at AAA isn’t a horrible gamble for essentially nothing. Real problem there was health. Obviously they did much better this year. Also, why are people dogging on some JC pitching coach for getting his dream job? Seems kinda extreme, but I suppose there’s not a lot of news until after the WS.

Derek Hill survived nothing. He’s arb eligible and to cut him they would non-tender, not try to pass him through waivers.

The theory on Mead is that he was a really hyped prospect who couldn’t pick a lane hit vs. power. The Sox grabbed and said, “You gotta get stronger and hit for power.” They have a plan for him this offseason similar to Vargas. Is it gonna work? Who the heck knows? Gotta wait until next year to find out. But they are betting they can help him reach his ceiling. Not a terrible bet for a guy they picked up after he opted out of his AAA contract. Mead certainly has a higher ceiling than either of the pitchers they got.

James Franklin is out at Penn State. As someone who grew up in Michigan, he will be missed. Also, just letting the universe know, I would take a $49 million buyout.

No fan of the Cubs but I look forward to the day when cheering for a Cub loss is not the best thing a Sox fan can hope for.

Here’s a prediction: Sox go HS again next year. I’ll say Tyler Spangler and Sox Area Code guy Ethan Bass from Northbrook.

The fact that the Sox have only 3 arbitration guys, like 3 guys under contract and the rest pre-arb is all to the good. The tear down is finally complete and they can start building. I expect them to be very quiet this winter and then they can add payroll after the lockout when they know more clearly what they have. Tearing down the Anderson-Eloy-Moncada core has been one of the most disastrous periods I can remember as a Sox fan, but it does feel like they’re turning a corner. As to these 3 guys, for sure nontender Hill. They need the roster spot. The other 2? Meh. Insignificant either way in the long term.

This free agent class doesn’t exactly inspire me, but I would take Bellinger. It seems like his injuries are behind him and his positional versatility would come in handy as the Sox continue to figure out what they have. The pitchers are a real crapshoot. You don’t know what you’re getting from year to year with Cease and while I love his track record, Framber scares the hell out of me. There is a ton of mileage on that arm. in reality I will take the Josh Rojas/Nicky Lopez OF equivalent and I’ll be forced to like it.

Luckily for the Sox, the top of this draft is really deep. I would be happy with any of the top 4 guys: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lombard, or Spangler. Plus, Curiel, Burress, and Lebron could all up their stock. Sox should get someone really good no matter how the lottery turns out.

I think when considering the Sox farm system, rankings tell very little of the story. Rankings try to combine two really different things: high-end talent and depth. Of the two I think high-end talent is way more important unless you do a lot of prospect for salary trades like the Yankees do. The Sox have very good (not great) high-end talent. They do not have good depth. Their system would be much more highly rated had they drafted Konnor Griffin as the scouts wanted. But if you look at their 8th and 9th ranked guys, they are better than most systems. They issue is that they're top top guys slightly underperformed this year so instead of 65 at the top, they have like 8 55's and a 50. Those are all potential major league regulars, which is pretty darn good. Add that to the young guys they already have in mlb, you can start to see a corps developing. Now, they are likely to add a Top 5 pick in a deep draft. Also, there are several young players who may rise in the coming year. Fauske could be viewed very differently 12 months from now, for instance. Put all that together and there is definitely reason to be optimistic even if systems like the Brewers have even more reasons to be optimistic.

Drafting is so important. The difference between getting a #1 starter and a guy who maybe ends up in the pen can get a GM fired. Gotta say, I'm having Yesavage envy right now.

Post-hype prospect: Would you be into the Sox doing a buy low on Heston Kjerstad? He was BRUTAL this year in mlb and AAA. Fuller knows him. If he approves, I could see it. Likely out of options does not control the zone enough and is not a great defender. Wouldn’t give up hardly anything for him, but may be worth a flyer.

Imagine pitching Soroka AND Civale in a playoff game. They are this close to a position player pitching.

Don’t forget that his fastball tops out over 100.

I think 5% chance if he just destroys the Fall League. Otherwise, I think he gets half a season in the minors at least. I actually don’t think any of their top prospects are gonna make the team out of Spring. Schultz, Smith, and McDougal will probably get AAA time. Montgomery and Antonacci may start in AA. Oppor and Bonemer are unlikely to make the majors this year. Carlson and Fauske will be in A ball. Everybody else is either a utility ceiling, a project, or a reliever. So, guys who have a shot at making the team are lower ranked guys like Franklin, Pallette, and Shane Murphy, IMHO.

Actually, the Sox have something more powerful than TWTW: TWTS. The will to suck.

Shortstops can generally move to other positions, look at Jackson Merrill. If Carlson works out, Bonemer is going to move, and I bet he could handle an OF position, possibly even center. As far as the new Top 100, all 5 Sox sport a 55 FV, so there’s no clear cut number 1. Personally, I have Bonemer > B. Montgomery just cuz there’s more upside there. I also have McDougal and Oppor in essentially the same tier as the Top 5 guys. Would not be surprised to see one or both of them sneak onto top 100s soon. After the top 9 guys, though, I think the system falls off a cliff. They really need to do better in LatAm to get depth.

I don't know if that's fair, especially for pitchers. I mean, Oppor and McDougal are both 5th rounders and they should be fringe Top 100 guys right now just based on stuff. The good news is that, like McDougal, even with TJS they have a lot of time to develop Larson. I would be surprised if he saw full season ball next year, but he doesn't turn 21 until 2027.

Happy for Crochet. I always believed he should be starting. I wonder who is going to end up paying Smith, Smith, Schultz, McDougal, and Oppor.

I am surprised Wise wasn’t canned cuz the bullpen has been historically bad for the last two years.

Jose Valentin

Nice to see the Sox are gonna carry over actual legitimate major leaguers into next year. Smith, Teel, Vargas, Montgomery, Meidroth, Sosa, Baldwin, Quero, Taylor, Vasil, Leasure all seem like legit players. That’s a lot better than where they were at last year.

And I would argue KW was in charge from 2000-2023 so he had a huge hand in not just the smoking wreckage but also a putrid record of drafting and developing talent. In 23 years, what are the successes? Abreu, Sale, Crochet. Then a few guys acquired in trade like Eaton which lead to Giolito. Otherwise, high draft picks were mostly bad and occasionally horrible. Getz might suck, but please don’t pretend that KW was even average let alone plus when it came to talent acquisition.

Counterpoint: Kenny Williams took over a team that already had Ordonez, Thomas, Konerko, Carlos Lee with Joe Crede on the way. That’s a Hall of Famer, two franchise players, an All Star and an above average regular. Getz inherited the smoking wreckage of a failed rebuild in Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, and Robert. Kind of a big difference.