shysocks

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) Technically this is a new training staff. What happened? Did he reinjure? Not sure, just saw a tweet from Friedell about Thibs saying that was the new timetable.

Butler out 2-4 weeks, per Friedell.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 28, 2014 -> 06:41 PM) Morales is in his 30s and is on a stead 3 year decline. I'll pass on declining veterans. Brown is in his 20s, and arguably was mishandled by the Phils the idea here is just a Vic for Brown swap. He may not work out - but then again, I don't believe in this "all in" stuff But Morales isn't a declining veteran who will require a hefty commitment. He's coming off an exceptionally terrible season with some unusual circumstances and he'll be cheap. I can see why you wouldn't want him but there are reasons to think he'll be a good buy low. QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 28, 2014 -> 07:11 PM) One of the big reasons Brown tanked this year is a dramatic, probably unsustainable collapse of his HR/FB rate. It is distinctly possible that it rebounds and he becomes a 30HR guy. The only thing unsustainable about that collapse is where it started from - his 19.3% in 2013 was well above his career norm, and it's not like he was some power monster in the minors. That was the only year of his pro career that he came anywhere near 30 homers, so just as the word potential was stretched earlier in the thread, I think you're doing the same with the phrase distinctly possible here. If you put his HR/FB last year at his career average, give him another extra homer to be nice, and assume those seven new home runs had been outs before (again, being nice), his new season line becomes .249/.299/.408/.707. We already have a player who can provide offense like that with horrible defense. Brown stinks. He's a classic bust who had one tease of a good season. He's 27. I would not give up anything more than Viciedo for him, but I wouldn't tender Viciedo in the first place.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 28, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) What's Montero's contract status? Pre-arb, so roughly league minimum plus unlimited ice cream sandwiches.

In case anybody out there ever played / still plays Titanfall, the game has been reinvigorated. Last week they put out a big update that includes a new horde mode-styled game type, new achievements, a new ranking system, and much faster lobby loads. Today, the game is half off and the DLC (9 maps) is $8.25 instead of $25. I'm assuming it's all motivated by the looming Halo release, but for anyone who's still a fan of the game it's a good time to jump back in.

QUOTE (Charlie Haeger's Knuckles @ Oct 28, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) 7.5m is pretty low in the grand scheme of things, why wouldnt they just exercise it and then trade him when the market develops? I agree it seems odd not to wait. Maybe they already have a deal they like - they wanted a guy and they're getting him.

QUOTE (flavum @ Oct 28, 2014 -> 10:45 AM) First trade...hmmmmm... 11/19- Viciedo to Seattle for bullpen arm(s), maybe Maurer. Quiet, everybody's busy talking about urine. But I'm hoping we just non-tender Viciedo and move on. I don't want any chance of the Sox paying him again.

Anyway, skipped to the 7th of the game on the DVR last night. I'd forgotten how Thome absolutely annihilated that ball. Ridiculous.

Javy Vazquez OPS allowed, 2006: 1st inning: 0.591 2nd inning: 0.501 3rd inning: 0.821 4th inning: 0.465 5th inning: 0.858 6th inning: 1.000 7th inning: 0.926 8th inning: 0.572 9th inning: 2.000 The spike in the 3rd, and 5-7, certainly make it look like he suffered when hitters saw him again.

Sale is a superhero and Quintana, depending on what sample you look at, has either no platoon splits or reverse ones. Neither's handedness should factor into building the rest of the rotation and if the best guy to bring in is a lefty, bring him in.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 27, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) Another thing about Dunn that I've thought about in regards to his decision to retire: Do you think he was afraid of being the only player with 500 homers to NOT be in the Hall of Fame? If I were him, I might rather just ride off into the sunset than to have my career murdered by media pundits in five years. Assuming that you meant only presumed clean player, because Palmeiro/Sheffield/ManRam/others might never get in, I think boo-ing and age just started to wear him out and he had enough money.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 27, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) Could you not invent wOBA+ and scale it to 100? You sure could, and somebody probably has. I'm not aware of where to find it though, so looking up the league average wOBA is just an extra step. And I think it's necessary to have some type of park factor. Even if the method isn't perfect, penalizing hitters in Coors and rewarding those in Seattle is helpful.

You can always use wOBA. Corrects the OBP/SLG imbalance problem of OPS, without the park adjustment. It lacks my favorite feature and main advantage of wRC+, which is the scaling to 100.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 27, 2014 -> 10:22 AM) Got that, still say that Mark should have known exactly what the end result would be. Agree about his naivete, but I'm not sure it was such a foregone conclusion. If that team had lived up to its payroll the teardown might not have happened. At least not so quickly.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) Matt Cain - 51.1 postseason IP, 2.10 ERA Tim Lincecum - 56.1 postseason IP, 2.40 ERA Madison Bumgarner - 83.1 postseason IP, 2.27 ERA All 1st round picks by the Giants Pretty outstanding success rate, even if it looks like Cain and Lincecum burned out too soon. Hopefully Bumgarner doesn't fall off a cliff like those two.

QUOTE (rowand's rowdies @ Oct 26, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) Rotoworld says Mark has been made available and the Jays will have to eat some of his $19 million salary. Holy crap, I didn't realize how backloaded his contract was. He probably negotiated that in hopes of not getting traded. Didn't quite work out. I'd be happy if the Sox got Mark back as long as the price was right, lefty/righty be damned. When Buehrle was warming up as a visitor this year, a drunk guy offered to trade Sale to get him back. That would probably get it done.

And it ended up barely being about Dunn at all. It was a really good article. So many times when I'm watching a game at home, I find my attention wandering to my tablet or whatever until I hear contact or strike 3. This encouraged me to better appreciate the back-and-forth battle at home plate as it's happening.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Oct 23, 2014 -> 12:39 PM) I know he made highlight plays, but I mean statistically. Systems disagree on him drastically. Just looking at the Fangraphs leaderboard, Eaton is 21st in DRS and he's the only guy in the top 50 with a negative UZR. Gordon Beckham is the next one at 59th.

Not to beat the Volquez Sucks drum too much, but I would be shocked if he got anywhere near 3/$45.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 02:31 PM) I don't want to make this about Buehrle, but why was everybody against paying him and OK with Shields making a ton? I know we don't do eye tests around here on Soxtalk, but Kansas City wants to put this guy on a train to Boston and have him never come back. Now they fans are grateful for the regular season, and happy Dayton Moore made that trade, very happy, but his performance eliminates any angst about letting him go in free agency. Why do you say he doesn't project as a guy whose career has seen its best days? 1) That's exactly the opposite of what I said ("Right now he projects as a slightly worse but still good pitcher..."). You said he projects as a lousy pitcher and that isn't the case. 2) I'm not arguing that the Sox should sign him, I'm arguing about the realities of his career and the market. The fact is, 3/$45 would be a bargain for James Shields (unless you believe every start of his going forward will look like last night), which is why he will be earning more than that. 3) You keep citing the fan reaction in KC. If you ask the fans of a team that lost a World Series game in a blowout the night before about the starting pitcher who lost the game, you are never going to receive a level-headed answer. It's meaningless.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 01:37 PM) Better than Dunn, not Morales. Morales is much better at putting the ball in play, but doesn't have the big power potential of Dunn, Brown, or Alvarez. Alvarez and Brown are both much more athletic than Morales and can at least run the bases, Morales has been more of a monolith since he injured his ankle. I like Morales a lot, but I am not sure how much he fits this team as constructed. I agree with most of this, but I don't agree that Morales can't equal Brown's power. Brown has had one season as high as Morales' career ISO. His ISO in the minors is lower than Morales' career ISO. I'd take Morales before Brown and I don't think it's that close, even if you talk about acquisition cost. I don't see 2014 as the start of a rapid decline for Morales; more like just a rotten fluke. Sounds like you feel roughly the same.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 01:20 PM) Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 8h8 hours ago From ELIAS: The team that wins Game 1 is 70-39 all-time in the World Series. A team that wins Game 1 has one way to lose the series in 5 games (LLLL), four ways to lose in 6 games (WLLLL, LWLLL, LLWLL, LLLWL), and ten ways to lose in 7 games (WWLLLL, WLWLLL, WLLWLL, WLLLWL, LWWLLL, LWLWLL, LWLLWL, LLWWLL, LLWLWL, LLLWWL). If you give both teams a 50% chance of winning each game, the probabilities of all those scenarios add up to 34.4%, which means an expected winning percentage of 65.6% for a team that has already won Game 1. That equates to a record of 72-37. That's a long way of saying COOL STAT MR. OLNEY.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 02:12 PM) Great post. But at some point a baseball professional GM/owner has to "project." Right now he projects as frankly a lousy pitcher. You can make all the excuses about innings and stuff you want, he's looked like a total hack this postseason. He's ineffective. The problem is that you're overrating a few bad games and ignoring that he was not, in fact, a total hack all season or really ever in his career. Right now he projects as a slightly worse but still good pitcher and he'll get paid accordingly. He doesn't project as a guy whose career is doomed because he got lit up a couple times in October.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) No. I think you are insanely low. No chance Shields signs for as little as 3/45. All it takes is one stupid GM, and we all know there are plenty of those out there. I would sign Shields to the Sox at 3/45 without blinking. He'll certainly get more.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 22, 2014 -> 10:44 AM) To that end, I would rather pursue Pedro Alvarez or Dom Brown, both have Dunn like power with potential to hit better. They will also both cost less from a financial and prospect standpoint. Saying Domonic Brown has the potential to hit better is really stretching the word potential to its limits. He stunk just as badly as Morales last year, except he doesn't have Morales' track record or the excuse of signing with a team in the middle of the year. Alvarez, I agree, is an interesting option.