Matt

1:04

You guys seem to be the high guys on Madrigal - so what kind of hitter do you see at peak - Pedroia?  2014 Altuve?  Urias? 2016 Altuve??  I guess what kind of stat line do you see?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

He has elements of those guys and Albies but almost certainly isn't as good as Pedroia/Albies/Altuve. Right around Urias, 2-3 win type that may get to 4 wins once or twice and gets to the bigs quickly.

Loop

1:13

Anything new on the White Sox? Still on Madrigal? More so leaning Singer now? Feed me. I hunger.

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

I think it's down to those two, still think it's Madrigal

Frank Menechino's Lazy Eye

1:16

Thank you for the DRAFT BOARD!
Do you get the sense that you and Eric are higher on Swaggerty than the industry consensus?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

Higher than he'll go, but there's definitely scouts that have him right where we do. The ones that don't, we think, are falling into the aforementioned Trea Turner thing, or getting distracted by some worrisome, but ultimately probably meaningless maturity stuff from earlier in the spring.

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Just draft the 70 hit tool and be done with it.

Yeah, I'm not going to act like an MLB draft expert, but if Madrigal is a consistent .310 hitter with 10-12 homers a year (which is pretty attainable at GRF) + solid D, he's an extremely useful piece and I'm not sure why the discussion is even being had. It's a very safe pick, but he seems to be the safest pick in a few drafts. At the worst, he tears up the minor leagues and becomes a big trade chip in a deal for a veteran in 2020-2021.

John S

1:29

Can you explain how Singer was assigned a "low" on variance?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:30

He has a low variance among his possible outcomes. He'll almost certainly be in an MLB rotation pretty quickly and he wont' be an ace. In the draft, the gap between 3rd starter and 5th starter is really small when some guys have a real chance of not getting out of A-Ball.

Ptown

1:28

Any chance you think the White Sox will take Swaggerty to save money on 2nd and 3rd round picks?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:28

Possible, unlikely

I don't see why safe, not to mention 'quick to the majors" should be particularly appealing traits with the # 4 pick in the draft.

Is #3 starter ceiling the best use of the #4 pick?

Both the swaggarty writeups from BA and Fangraphs are very complimentary, regardless of him being 11 and 4. I posted his BA one earlier.

I don't particularly want Singer, but the "He'll only be a #3!", again I remember the same stuff about Aaron Nola and he is the only one of all of that pitching in the top 10 that year to pitch close to a #1.

42 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Matt

1:04

You guys seem to be the high guys on Madrigal - so what kind of hitter do you see at peak - Pedroia?  2014 Altuve?  Urias? 2016 Altuve??  I guess what kind of stat line do you see?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

He has elements of those guys and Albies but almost certainly isn't as good as Pedroia/Albies/Altuve. Right around Urias, 2-3 win type that may get to 4 wins once or twice and gets to the bigs quickly.

Hmmm, a 2-3 WAR player would be pretty disappointing.  I’d hope he’s got a bit more ceiling than that if everything went right.  Are we basically talking Yolmer Sanchez here with more speed?

17 hours ago, fathom said:

still yet to hear Hostetler mention anything about Singer's stuff. It's all about his competitiveness

In defense of Hostetler, Garfein specifically asked about his character, and then he came back with "Tell me more about his intangibles". Nick was never asked anything about Singer's stuff or results.

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hmmm, a 2-3 WAR player would be pretty disappointing.  I’d hope he’s got a bit more ceiling than that if everything went right.  Are we basically talking Yolmer Sanchez here with more speed?

No way Yolmer has a 70 hit tool.

39 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I don't see why safe, not to mention 'quick to the majors" should be particularly appealing traits with the # 4 pick in the draft.

Is #3 starter ceiling the best use of the #4 pick?

I certainly don't think so. The paranoid part of me wonders if the front office sees the pitching struggles of Carson/Giolito/Lopez-ish, and think we need to augment what they see as the opening window, with a quick moving and safe starting pitcher draft pick. 

Reading through the scouting reports on the board and BA's list yesterday, "high floor" has got to be the theme of the draft. Even guys people are holding up as players we should draft instead of the high floor guys have high floor labels on them. If anything sounds like if you don't want that you go Gorman or Swaggerty, not India.

30 minutes ago, tpezz27 said:

No way Yolmer has a 70 hit tool.

I’d be happy if Madrigal was a 2-3 WAR player. That would put him in the 80/90 percentile for #4 picks. Maybe you heard Garfein yesterday say only 1 all-star from #4 in the last 20 years. 

34 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I certainly don't think so. The paranoid part of me wonders if the front office sees the pitching struggles of Carson/Giolito/Lopez-ish, and think we need to augment what they see as the opening window, with a quick moving and safe starting pitcher draft pick. 

i.e. drafting for need - one of many reasons why things are the way they are under this front office.
Of course, how do they know that they don't need a SS, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, C, etc.?  Which is the problem with drafting for need.

Pierzynski and Rowand representing the Sox at the draft next Monday.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hmmm, a 2-3 WAR player would be pretty disappointing.  I’d hope he’s got a bit more ceiling than that if everything went right.  Are we basically talking Yolmer Sanchez here with more speed?

A 2-3 WAR player is still a VERY valuable and useful player to have. A championship team needs several rock solid starters to build around.

 

I would absolutely take a Cesar Hernandez/Luis Urias type player to plug into our lineup for the next 6+ years up the middle. I don't think he's in the Pedroia/Altuve/Albies tier of player, but a tier below that is still a hell of a prospect.

 

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Matt

1:04

You guys seem to be the high guys on Madrigal - so what kind of hitter do you see at peak - Pedroia?  2014 Altuve?  Urias? 2016 Altuve??  I guess what kind of stat line do you see?

 

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

He has elements of those guys and Albies but almost certainly isn't as good as Pedroia/Albies/Altuve. Right around Urias, 2-3 win type that may get to 4 wins once or twice and gets to the bigs quickly.

How do they get a 2-3 WAR player from their own grades? 70 hit 70 speed 60 field 50 game power 50 arm sounds like a 4-5 WAR player to me. 

16 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

A 2-3 WAR player is still a VERY valuable and useful player to have. A championship team needs several rock solid starters to build around.

 

I would absolutely take a Cesar Hernandez/Luis Urias type player to plug into our lineup for the next 6+ years up the middle. I don't think he's in the Pedroia/Altuve/Albies tier of player, but a tier below that is still a hell of a prospect.

 

And if he turns out to to be able to have + positional versatility, that would mean we could buy a plus 3b or elsewhere and constantly move him around, allowing rest/depth without losing production.

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

I certainly don't think so. The paranoid part of me wonders if the front office sees the pitching struggles of Carson/Giolito/Lopez-ish, and think we need to augment what they see as the opening window, with a quick moving and safe starting pitcher draft pick. 

I absolutely, positively believe this is why Singer is in play

I'm not guaranteeing they won't draft Singer, but last year the 2017 draft thread was complaining about how Jared Kendall was just a continuation of Kenny's infatuation with no-hit athletes, and they wen't with a very much anti-no-hit-athlete. 

There is no information to assume that the white sox are actually going with singer, so getting upset prematurely is just that.

30 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

How do they get a 2-3 WAR player from their own grades? 70 hit 70 speed 60 field 50 game power 50 arm sounds like a 4-5 WAR player to me. 

Yeah, that surprised me as well. 

2B recently who had a 2-3 WAR with good defense and average power...

2017 - Josh Harrison (2.6), Yolmer Sanchez (2.2), DJ LaMahieu (1.9)

2016 - Chase Utley (2.2), Joe Panik (1.9)

2015 - Addison Russell (2.6), Kolten Wong (2.5)

2014 - None

2013 - Brian Dozier (2.9), Brandon Phillips (2.7)

 

Of all of those, I think DJ LaMahieu might be the best comp. Now LaMahieu is 8 inches taller, but the results seem to be somewhere around Madrigal, being a .301 career hitter, 7-8 HR a year, 15-20 SB per year, low strikeout rates, very good defense.

 

Edited May 30, 20187 yr by DirtySox

1 hour ago, tpezz27 said:

No way Yolmer has a 70 hit tool.

Of course not, I guess I meant in terms of overall value provided.  Yolmer already appears to a 2-3 WAR infielder.  I’d hope Madrigal with a far superior hit tool and far more speed could exceed that if all went right.

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

I certainly don't think so. The paranoid part of me wonders if the front office sees the pitching struggles of Carson/Giolito/Lopez-ish, and think we need to augment what they see as the opening window, with a quick moving and safe starting pitcher draft pick. 

This is what concerns me as well.