I don't know but how many times do I have to read about WAR being the be all, end all to a players value?

 

I don't get the dismay with Garcia. I've seen people wanting Delmonico playing rather than Avi. That's just wrong. Delmonico will never approach a year like Garcia just had and is not near the plyer.

 

I heard Carlos Pena last night talking about Ozuna and how teams need to let players develop because he was sent down to the minors a couple years ago, made adjustments, and now is the most coveted available trade chip out there.

 

I also heard a GM, think it was Shapiro, talking about a prospect comparing to a current player on their roster. He mentioned how the prospect was in the minors, while at the same age, the other guy was already in the league. Everybody is high on Eloy, and rightfully so, but at his age in high A and AA, Avi was already playing in the bigs. Now that Avi seems to have figured things out.....trade him. Makes zero sense to me.

 

Not surprising it doesn't make sense to you..

I don't know but how many times do I have to read about WAR being the be all, end all to a players value?

 

I don't get the dismay with Garcia. I've seen people wanting Delmonico playing rather than Avi. That's just wrong. Delmonico will never approach a year like Garcia just had and is not near the plyer.

 

I heard Carlos Pena last night talking about Ozuna and how teams need to let players develop because he was sent down to the minors a couple years ago, made adjustments, and now is the most coveted available trade chip out there.

 

I also heard a GM, think it was Shapiro, talking about a prospect comparing to a current player on their roster. He mentioned how the prospect was in the minors, while at the same age, the other guy was already in the league. Everybody is high on Eloy, and rightfully so, but at his age in high A and AA, Avi was already playing in the bigs. Now that Avi seems to have figured things out.....trade him. Makes zero sense to me.

WAR isn’t the end-all-be-all, but completely ignoring is far worse. The same applies to all advanced metrics and the key is to take both what the numbers say on the page and what you see from watching the player actually play to put together a thorough evaluation. Unfortunately, what happens more often than not is people simply stat scout (I’m guilty of this myself at times) and ignore issues/outliers with certain stats. Having said all that, you’re much better stat scouting with advanced metrics than tradional ones. Based on your tone, I have feeling you’re of the tradional variety and think Avi is the bees’ knees because of his batting average & RBIs. And while those stats tell you some things, without looking at advanced metrics you’ll be missing a large part of the story.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=90968

Cardinals closing in on an Ozuna trade. That should open up the Avi market quite a bit. Will be interesting to see the return to get a general sense of what Avi might bring back, even if he’s no doubt worth less.

Great post. There's definitely a different standard regarding current Sox players versus players on other teams. Avi's great season means nothing to many Sox fans on here. They need to see him do it again and again. Wait, Abreu has done it every year he's been a Sox and he's still not considered untouchable by fans.

Greg, stop trolling. Literally no one has said that Avisail's season meant nothing. We are tempering our expectations based on evidence that suggests this was somewhat fluky.

Giants lost out on Ozuna, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for Avi now.

Not surprising it doesn't make sense to you..

nice contribution to the thread. Keep up the good work.

Giants lost out on Ozuna, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for Avi now.

 

Not much in the SF farm that the Sox would want though. Arroyo? Ramos? Beyond them their system is scary thin on talent. Jordan Gonzalez?

Not much in the SF farm that the Sox would want though. Arroyo? Ramos? Beyond them their system is scary thin on talent. Jordan Gonzalez?

 

I have a feeling a team isn't going to need to overpay for Garcia or anything.

I have a feeling a team isn't going to need to overpay for Garcia or anything.

 

Perhaps, but I would not just trade Avi for the sake of trading him. If he is having a good season he could be dealt at the deadline?

Not much in the SF farm that the Sox would want though. Arroyo? Ramos? Beyond them their system is scary thin on talent. Jordan Gonzalez?

 

I like Ramos alot.

I like Ramos alot.

 

Ramos + Anderson + Williams?

 

Sox would have to really like Ramos to make that deal though

Ramos + Anderson + Williams?

 

Sox would have to really like Ramos to make that deal though

 

I'd probably want a better 2nd piece. I don't know a ton about the Giants system but Kelvin Beltre looks like an interesting guy as a backend of deal filler.

Aren't the Giants linked to Cain and Bruce as well as McCutchen? I kinda doubt they would be interested in Avi.

Aren't the Giants linked to Cain and Bruce as well as McCutchen? I kinda doubt they would be interested in Avi.

 

And have made an offer to the Reds for Hamilton apparently. They could potentially pull off a deal for Hamilton and sign Cain for RF and greatly improve the defense in the outfield.

Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs seems to think Avi will return to being a below replacement level player. If that is the industry-wide view, it seems the most the Sox would get for him is a bag of heavily used baseballs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/winter-meet...ive-blog-day-3/

Edited December 13, 20178 yr by Jack Parkman

And have made an offer to the Reds for Hamilton apparently. They could potentially pull off a deal for Hamilton and sign Cain for RF and greatly improve the defense in the outfield.

That would be a very smart plan. All of the NLW ballparks are huge so defense goes a long way.

That would be a very smart plan. All of the NLW ballparks are huge so defense goes a long way.

 

Yeah and Span and Pence were both brutal out there. They need guys who can cover ground in their own ballpark.

Edited December 13, 20178 yr by soxfan2014

ChiSox2020: can you tell us the ZIPS for Avi Garcia yet? Do you see anyone trading for him?

 

Dan Szymborski: Imagine your projection for Avi. Now make it much worse.

 

I didn't see that as Dan saying he'll be below replacement level, just that he thinks Sox fans will expect a repeat of last year (although most of us don't). Steamer has him as a roughly league average player and I don't see his ZIPS projection as being much worse than that.

I didn't see that as Dan saying he'll be below replacement level, just that he thinks Sox fans will expect a repeat of last year (although most of us don't). Steamer has him as a roughly league average player and I don't see his ZIPS projection as being much worse than that.

Well I expect him to be Melky Cabrera from 2017, at best, so if much worse than that, then he would be below replacement level at that point given that Melky had a 0 fWAR last season, lol.

Edited December 13, 20178 yr by Jack Parkman

Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs seems to think Avi will return to being a below replacement level player. If that is the industry-wide view, it seems the most the Sox would get for him is a bag of heavily used baseballs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/winter-meet...ive-blog-day-3/

Not trying to be argumentative, but am curious as to how often those projections are close to being accurate?

There is such a wide disparity about expectations for Avi, going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting to conduct a poll, in which everyone could offer their own projections, regarding what kind of year they expect Avi to have? Irrespective of whether, or not, he's traded, I'd just love to see how close some of us might end up being. Maybe more interesting; how far off some of us might be.

It's an understandable projection, given his BAPIP.

But that just means hold onto him....won't get much by trading him, but if he builds on last year, his value escalates significantly.

There is such a wide disparity about expectations for Avi, going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting to conduct a poll, in which everyone could offer their own projections, regarding what kind of year they expect Avi to have? Irrespective of whether, or not, he's traded, I'd just love to see how close some of us might end up being. Maybe more interesting; how far off some of us might be.

 

While nobody expects Avi to put up a repeat of 2017, you do not end up batting .330 over an entire season strictly by luck. Sure that average is inflated a bit, but he still showed improvement at the plate.

 

Avi absolutely murdered lefties batting .424 against them, albeit with over a .500 BABIP.

 

It's not absurd to think he could be a .290+ hitter with 15-20 home runs next season, which is still a solid player