6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And how much of the Cubs attendance in that season was driven by their local fanbase?  There is no doubt in my mind the Cubs are more popular locally, but a lot of that is casuals looking for a good time.  Their core base is definitely not 3:1 the size of ours.  Ultimately, the biggest difference is the Cubs are a huge regional & national draw.  That doesn’t make us a small market club or mean we have 25% of the city.  [/b]Using the number of Twitter followers to estimate the size of each fanbase is just stupid.[/b]

It isn't the end all be all, but it is the only set of data publicly available that gives some sort of representation. 

Just a decade ago, one of the ESPN writers (Greenberg) posited that the Cubs and White Sox possessed the exact same local attendance.

It was the regional tour groups and those who came from around the country/world due to the historic nature of Wrigley Field (and day baseball, to a lesser extent) that provided the Cubs another 25-35% on top of the local attendees.

Not to mention the current disparity in corporate season tickets.

When both teams are playing well (let’s say 2003-2008), the local numbers are basically a stalemate.   Whether it’s 67/33 or 65/35 or even 60/40...it’s definitely not as lopsided as it appears now because of the dormant or inactive/in hiding Sox fans.

You could probably argue the last half decade has shifted it another 5% or so towards the Cubs because of the last decade of kids in the city growing up with all Cubs, all the time...

19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It isn't the end all be all, but it is the only set of data publicly available that gives some sort of representation. 

It gives no sort of representation whatsoever unless you’re able to filter it on people in Chicago.  Even then, I’d wager a much larger portion of the Cubs core fanbase uses Twitter than ours.  What your doing with this “data” is quite frankly lazy & wrong.

Twitter activity has about the same correlation (or Facebook likes) as predicting the eventual success or box office opening of a new movie.  (Not to mention how many Millennials are opting out of social media altogether the last 2-3 years and are not being captured or represented at all.)

It’s just one indicator.

If you went by hats/jerseys/T-shirt’s worn or sold the last five years in the Midwest, you’d think it 90/10 Cubs to Sox.

Edited November 17, 20187 yr by caulfield12

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

The going rate for 1 WAR is $9 million. Manny Machado's average season over the last 4 seasons has been worth 5.4 WAR. Should similar results continue, Machado would have to exceed $48.6 million AAV to be a bad deal. Any lower contract would have surplus value.

The $9 million/WAR figure comes from a study done on how free agents have performed relative to the contracts they were given, I don’t think it’s an actual reflection of how front offices value WAR. I don’t think any GM is valuing league average players at $20 million/year or that they’re expecting league average production out of players they’re giving $20 million/year. 

Despite my personal preference for a LH power bat, I think Id rather have Machado than Harper. 

I'm more confident in Mahado being good for ~3+ fWAR over the next 3-4 seasons, given Machados relative consistency over his career. I'm also looking at an abject lack of options @ 3B in the system, & see Machado as filling a gaping hole. I also would bet on Machado's dickish nature attenuating over the years as he gets older (& hopefully more mature).

While Harper is the more "marketable option" (as far as baseball players go), he alone can't fix decades of missteps in building an attractive brand. Also, given the wild balance in his performance over his career, coupled with the NL-to-AL adjustment, I could easily see him laying a steaming "Adam Dunn" were he to come here.

That said, if Harper does sign here, I won't complain. Id just prefer Machado over Harper.

15 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Despite my personal preference for a LH power bat, I think Id rather have Machado than Harper. 

I'm more confident in Mahado being good for ~3+ fWAR over the next 3-4 seasons, given Machados relative consistency over his career. I'm also looking at an abject lack of options @ 3B in the system, & see Machado as filling a gaping hole. I also would bet on Machado's dickish nature attenuating over the years as he gets older (& hopefully more mature).

While Harper is the more "marketable option" (as far as baseball players go), he alone can't fix decades of missteps in building an attractive brand. Also, given the wild balance in his performance over his career, coupled with the NL-to-AL adjustment, I could easily see him laying a steaming "Adam Dunn" were he to come here.

That said, if Harper does sign here, I won't complain. Id just prefer Machado over Harper.

We have to build a team out of young players and I personally would prefer Harper as a role model to show Eloy and the others how to play the game.  I don't want any of the bad habits and attitude that Machado has displayed to run off on our young guys 

5 minutes ago, Moncada said:

We have to build a team out of young players and I personally would prefer Harper as a role model to show Eloy and the others how to play the game.  I don't want any of the bad habits and attitude that Machado has displayed to run off on our young guys 

 So Eloy can watch Harper half-ass it in the outfield?

33 minutes ago, Moncada said:

We have to build a team out of young players and I personally would prefer Harper as a role model to show Eloy and the others how to play the game.  I don't want any of the bad habits and attitude that Machado has displayed to run off on our young guys 

Id rather rely on the Spanish-speaking Abreu to work with Machado.

 

YMMV.

I hope this shit doesn't drag on for a couple months

6 hours ago, aeichhor said:

Yet how many world championships do they have since Billy beane has been going this so called running the baseball team the correct way lol. Boston spent and won a world series. You can not totally win in baseball without spending some chunks of money 

They have twice as many playoff appearances as the White Sox do since Beane/KW took over their respective teams. KW has the title, but they had more cracks at it. Baseball is so random. All you can really ask for is playoff appearances. Titles are gravy, unless your team prints money. 

Edited November 17, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They have twice as many playoff appearances as the White Sox do since Beane/KW took over their respective teams. KW has the title, but they had more cracks at it. Baseball is so random. All you can really ask for is playoff appearances. Titles are gravy, unless your team prints money. 

Well, I am much happier with the title.

Just now, turnin' two said:

Well, I am much happier with the title.

Me too, but again we should feel lucky and blessed that we got one. 

7 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Well, I am much happier with the title.

For sure, but how many titles does KW have if he gets to work with Beanes budget? Only 2 times have they had a $100 million payroll. And that was barely.

You’d be hard-pressed to find any owner willing to select KW to run an organization over Beane at this point in time...that said, it hasn’t been as easy for another small market “genius,” Friedman in TB, to translate that to a World Series win even with three times the budget.  

And surely the Indians’ GM gets the same opportunity someday soon.

 

At any rate, Beane’s front office also produced four MLB GM’s in Farhan Zaidi (now in SF), David Forst, Paul DePodesta and Alex Anthopolous.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Moneyball-at-20-Inside-Billy-Beane-s-legacy-11958848.php

Moneyball’s Legacy at 20 Years

Yeah Friedman is clearly terrible with his, uh, two straight World Series appearances and NLCS appearance.

If only he could do as well with a budget as the previous GM that had similar budget.

We definitely need some real rumors.  You know these are trying times when KW vs. Beane debates start filling the thread.  Although I will admit that Royce Ring section in Moneyball still gives me a chuckle to this day.

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We definitely need some real rumors.  You know these are trying times when KW vs. Beane debates start filling the thread.  Although I will admit that Royce Ring section in Moneyball still gives me a chuckle to this day.

Or another attendance thread.

Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get much through thanksgiving. Maybe a surprise lower tier FA (league signing not necessarily white Sox)

9 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

I hope this shit doesn't drag on for a couple months

I can virtually guarantee it will.

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Or another attendance thread.

Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get much through thanksgiving. Maybe a surprise lower tier FA (league signing not necessarily white Sox)

Lol...let’s hope we don’t drop to attendance thread levels.  But in all seriousness, even some small signings, (Sox or not) would be nice.  I still think we make some pitching move before the Winter Meetings.

8 minutes ago, daggins said:

I can virtually guarantee it will.

No you can't

1 hour ago, Hot FiRe said:

No you can't

Great post. You should “ban bet” him. 

5 hours ago, Sox72 said:

Great post. You should “ban bet” him. 

No one would ban bet Ron. Ron would just back out first.

18 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Despite my personal preference for a LH power bat, I think Id rather have Machado than Harper. 

I'm more confident in Mahado being good for ~3+ fWAR over the next 3-4 seasons, given Machados relative consistency over his career. I'm also looking at an abject lack of options @ 3B in the system, & see Machado as filling a gaping hole. I also would bet on Machado's dickish nature attenuating over the years as he gets older (& hopefully more mature).

While Harper is the more "marketable option" (as far as baseball players go), he alone can't fix decades of missteps in building an attractive brand. Also, given the wild balance in his performance over his career, coupled with the NL-to-AL adjustment, I could easily see him laying a steaming "Adam Dunn" were he to come here.

That said, if Harper does sign here, I won't complain. Id just prefer Machado over Harper.

They're both good for 4-6 WAR per healthy season. The difference is Harper will be in the 4-5 end of that range while Machado will be in the 5-6+ end of that range.

22 hours ago, tray said:

When you account that the Cubs own 75% of Chicago, you can't really say they are a large market team. If that is the case, they are in one of the smallest markets in Baseball. I hate to burst everyone's bubble. 

Please just become a full time cub fan since you have already bought in to the hype.

 

Never in a million years. I despise the Cubs. I like the Sox more than I despise the Cubs. That doesn't mean you don't live in reality though. 

Edited November 17, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman