9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’ve said it for over a year now. The Sox model is the Astros and Royals, not Cubs. I would welcome a Harper signing though just because it would put the Sox on the map. However I could also see his contract hamstringing the Sox for years to come.

Let’s hope the Royals aren’t the model unless you like 10 year rebuilds.

37 minutes ago, ptatc said:

If its 8/275, I don't blame the Sox for not beating that by a significant margin. He would not be worth 40 million AAV.

10/$350 beats that significantly. Also, if there's anyone out there worth $40 million AAV, it's Machado. He's averaged over 5 WAR/162 for his career. Provided he stays healthy, he's a good bet for 6 WAR per season. So you're likely paying $7-8 million per WAR at $40 million AAV, which is still below market rate for WAR.

1 minute ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Homer Bailey's deal didn't help matters either. 

No doubt. But that’s the predicament for mid market teams. No to very little margin for error when signing to mid to high end free agents. The reds basically couldn’t afford a single miss whereas the Dodgers or Yankees just brush off a BAILEY signing like its nothing.

45 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

Then we all may as well accept we’re never going to land a top tier FA. Why go through the bidding process knowing we have to significantly outbid a more well known, well respected franchise? 

Either we’re going to have to draft our own Manny Machado, or trade for him on the back end of his career

Unfortunately we traded our Machado away to San Diego.

So if Eloy is the stud we all hope, he is a 5 year White Sox since their mid market status would make a giant extension foolish.

 

Better start winning aoon.

18 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Unlike other mid market teams, the White Sox always have the possibility of upgrading to a large market if they play their cards right. Bringing one of these guys in, especially Harper IMO would be a big step.

I 100% agree with this, there is a ton of untapped potential with the Sox.  I’ve said it many times, but it’s going to require our ownership group to actually invest in the team and build a product that demands attention.  Signing a whale would be a great first step in that regard.

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

There are so many holes on this roster right now that finding a fit for Harper is my last concern. The current OF situation is a far bigger mess than the infield situation. Yes, I understand that they have a dozen OF prospects in the minors but that can be used as trade currency to fill other holes like the starting rotation, which is also a mess.

Basically everything is a mess right now.  There's not one person on the current roster where you can confidently say they will still be a key contributor come 2022.  It's why 2018 was such a lost season.

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So what? I would think if $9 million is nothing now, it will be nothing down the line. And chances are it will eventually  be someone else's problem either through trade or shift in ownership down the line. Except for Pujols who is immovable most of the giant contract guys eventually find their way to other teams. Will the money really look bad 5 years from now?

I mean I can buy that to a point, but everyone has a line. 

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s hope the Royals aren’t the model unless you like 10 year rebuilds.

If that’s the price for back to back World Series appearances including one win, I’d take it. We’re going on 14 years now since 2005 so I’m immune to long draughts and that was only one WS appearance.

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So what? I would think if $9 million is nothing now, it will be nothing down the line. And chances are it will eventually  be someone else's problem either through trade or shift in ownership down the line. Except for Pujols who is immovable most of the giant contract guys eventually find their way to other teams. Will the money really look bad 5 years from now?

Miguel Cabrera also comes to mind, if we include team extensions...Alex Gordon and Cespedes, but those are expiring sooner than the really huge deals.

1 minute ago, iamshack said:

I mean I can buy that to a point, but everyone has a line. 

I get that. But if the White Sox were ever really serious the line has to be really high. Some actually thought even MSM guys, they were in position to sign both.

26 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Well, Alonso has at most a 2 year deal. You’re comparing a similar expenditure for 9 years.

They throw away that money and more on nonproductive aging players ever year.  In 2016, it approached $25 million.  The production of many of  the Sox $4-$10 million players can be found for a fraction of the price.

Time for something different.

1 minute ago, GreenSox said:

They throw away that money and more on nonproductive aging players ever year.  In 2016, it approached $25 million.  The production of many of  the Sox $4-$10 million players can be found for a fraction of the price.

Time for something different.

I totally get it. But you still have to be responsible. There are going to be 5-6 guys we will likely be trying to extend down the road, some of which could be outperforming Machado or Harper by that time. You don’t want to be looking back and saying “if we had only not paid Machado $75 million more than market.” 

1 minute ago, iamshack said:

I totally get it. But you still have to be responsible. There are going to be 5-6 guys we will likely be trying to extend down the road, some of which could be outperforming Machado or Harper by that time. You don’t want to be looking back and saying “if we had only not paid Machado $75 million more than market.” 

Who knows though what 5 years down the road will be like. The luxury tax limit could be even high than it is now, hell it could be completely overhauled and different after the next CBA. There’s also a very good chance both Harper and Machado will use their opt outs. I’d be shocked if either of them make it through the entirety of their deals. They are both young enough that I think it would be pretty hard to imagine them falling off a cliff before age 30 and not get another payday.

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Who knows though what 5 years down the road will be like. The luxury tax limit could be even high than it is now, hell it could be completely overhauled and different after the next CBA. There’s also a very good chance both Harper and Machado will use their opt outs. I’d be shocked if either of them make it through the entirety of their deals. They are both young enough that I think it would be pretty hard to imagine them falling off a cliff before age 30 and not get another payday.

That's why the Sox should be front loading the crap out of their offers, and that way if they do have to make tough choice in 5-6 years with extensions, the Machado or Harper deals aren't as restricting.

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Who knows though what 5 years down the road will be like. The luxury tax limit could be even high than it is now, hell it could be completely overhauled and different after the next CBA. There’s also a very good chance both Harper and Machado will use their opt outs. I’d be shocked if either of them make it through the entirety of their deals. They are both young enough that I think it would be pretty hard to imagine them falling off a cliff before age 30 and not get another payday.

As for the opt outs, it depends on how the contract is structured. If the Sox were to weight the money so that a significant portion of it comes during the opt-out years and immediately following them, I find it hard to believe that there are going to be much higher offers out there than the remaining $ on the contract. We’ll see though. A lot of variables there. 

1 minute ago, fathom said:

That's why the Sox should be front loading the crap out of their offers, and that way if they do have to make tough choice in 5-6 years with extensions, the Machado or Harper deals aren't as restricting.

Yeah, I’m just not sure that’s wise. I think there needs to be a decent portion of money up front, but I think the FO would be sensitive of offering a contract that makes it too easy for the player to walk after 3 years. 

20 minutes ago, iamshack said:

I totally get it. But you still have to be responsible. There are going to be 5-6 guys we will likely be trying to extend down the road, some of which could be outperforming Machado or Harper by that time. You don’t want to be looking back and saying “if we had only not paid Machado $75 million more than market.” 

I agree; in many ways it's not a great distribution of assets.  But it's still better than what they've been doing.

For example, last year, the Astros paid a little  more than $16.7 million for the bulk of their bullpen (annualized):  Rondon, harris, peacock, Osuna, Devenski and Pressly.  The White Sox paid nearly $17 million for Soria, Jones, Santiago and Avilan.   None of this really has to do with player development (only Peacock, Devenski and Jones really came from the organizations).  It's management, evaluation and opportunity.  Will Harris was pitching well when cut by Arizona, and the Astros moved on him; still effective and cheap. (2.8 million).

Now I left Sipp and his $6 million out of the analysis - he's an obvious overpay.  Still they got a lot more bang for the buck out of their $23 million on the pen.

Edited December 30, 20187 yr by GreenSox

One thing I'm not worried about is deal structure, Hahn is good at this .

1 minute ago, justBLAZE said:

One thing I'm not worried about is deal structure, Hahn is good at this .

I'd be more concerned about their willingness to do early opt-outs, but thankfully we haven't heard about that so far.

53 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So if Eloy is the stud we all hope, he is a 5 year White Sox since their mid market status would make a giant extension foolish.

 

Better start winning aoon.

6.9 years, correct? He’d be a free agent after the 2025 season. And who’s to say they don’t lock him up to an early affordable extension like Eaton, Sale, Q, Anderson?

Edited December 30, 20187 yr by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

1 hour ago, Quinarvy said:

Damn reporters, reporting.

The audacity 

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

6.9 years, correct? He’d be a free agent after the 2025 season. And who’s to say they don’t lock him up to an early affordable extension like Eaton, Sale, Q, Anderson?

If Eloy was willing to sign an extension like that, they would have come to some sort of deal last season and he'd have been called up already. 

FWIW---Longtime beat writer Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is usually a pretty good source on baseball.  He does not list the White Sox as finalists for either Machado or Harper.  Otherwise he has a lot of baseball stuff in today's Globe. 

 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/12/29/baseball-top-free-agents-this-year-and-beyond/a538V444ifBDiTkVE3BNjI/story.html

4 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

FWIW---Longtime beat writer Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is usually a pretty good source on baseball.  He does not list the White Sox as finalists for either Machado or Harper.  Otherwise he has a lot of baseball stuff in today's Globe. 

 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/12/29/baseball-top-free-agents-this-year-and-beyond/a538V444ifBDiTkVE3BNjI/story.html

I feel very comfortable in saying that to not even mention the White Sox for either player means he doesn’t know shit.