4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I think its been well established that he would have / could have gotten paid more in a different offseason when certain other teams were in the shopping mood.  A little bit of bad timing for MM, no doubt. 

But he could also sustain a career ending injury playing on a 1 year deal in 2019 and cost himself $200M+.  It isn't happening man.   I am far more inclined to believe the current offer is 8/$250M as opposed 7/$175M, so that is partially why I am so confident.  

But when does this offseason exist? Didn't exist last year. Didn't exist year before that.

 

He would also have Arenado to deal with next offseason.

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I think its been well established that he would have / could have gotten paid more in a different offseason when certain other teams were in the shopping mood.  A little bit of bad timing for MM, no doubt. 

But he could also sustain a career ending injury playing on a 1 year deal in 2019 and cost himself $200M+.  It isn't happening man.   I am far more inclined to believe the current offer is 8/$250M as opposed 7/$175M, so that is partially why I am so confident.  

Of course he could, but I think the Reward outweighs the risk. How often do position players get beaned nowadays? It really doesn't happen all that often. The only real risk he has is blowing a knee running the bases and that only happens to two or three guys a season. The risk is minimal. 

Edited January 17, 20197 yr by Jack Parkman

1 minute ago, bmags said:

But when does this offseason exist? Didn't exist last year. Didn't exist year before that.

I think its pretty safe to say that if a couple of the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees did not have luxury tax issues, Manny would have signed a contract in excess of Stanton's.  And he still may (though I'd be shocked at this point). 

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Of course he could, but I think the Reward outweighs the risk. How often do position players get beaned nowadays? It really doesn't happen all that often. The only real risk he has is blowing a knee running the bases and that only happens to two or three guys a season. The risk is minimal. 

he can tear his knee stepping on a first baseman

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

 

78 huh?  Lets just sign Keuchel and Ottavino too and go to the playoffs!

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

But when does this offseason exist? Didn't exist last year. Didn't exist year before that.

When a new CBA is signed. Big market teams will still be treating the luxury tax as a hard cap next winter. A year from now, people will be wondering why it's mid-January and Arenado/Paul Goldschmidt remain unsigned.

58 minutes ago, kevo880 said:

Prove what? It's not like he had a disappointing season that he has to make up for. I don't see how things would be any different next offseason. 

It's not proving anything. its the players union saying take the highest AAV and waiting. At some point this will boil over and there will be a big meeting about FA spending and contracts.

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Of course he could, but I think the Reward outweighs the risk. How often do position players get beaned nowadays? It really doesn't happen all that often. The only real risk he has is blowing a knee running the bases and that only happens to two or three guys a season. The risk is minimal. 

So let me get is straight - you think the reward of getting perhaps $5M more on an average annual basis over the course of a 8-10 year contract (so $40-50M total) is worth risking $200M+?

Your math doesn't add up.  

2 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

78 huh?  Lets just sign Keuchel and Ottavino too and go to the playoffs!

Man I though 74.5 was a pretty easy under

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think its pretty safe to say that if a couple of the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees did not have luxury tax issues, Manny would have signed a contract in excess of Stanton's.  And he still may (though I'd be shocked at this point). 

Ok but we thought many of those teams were resetting specifically for this offseason, but many were still too scared to be in a position where it would be too difficult to re-set again.

1 minute ago, mqr said:

Man I though 74.5 was a pretty easy under

Adding Machado and calling it an off-season basically puts them at 74 projected wins on fangraphs.

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Of course he could, but I think the Reward outweighs the risk. How often do position players get beaned nowadays? It really doesn't happen all that often. The only real risk he has is blowing a knee running the bases and that only happens to two or three guys a season. The risk is minimal. 

What other teams are going to jump into the bidding next year that can't this year? If he can't get the huge contract he wants at 26 why would it be any easier when he's a year older and has one fewer year of his prime left?

1 minute ago, OmarComing25 said:

What other teams are going to jump into the bidding next year that can't this year? If he can't get the huge contract he wants at 26 why would it be any easier when he's a year older and has one fewer year of his prime left?

Red Sox and Cubs

Outside of the usual big spenders, it still amazes me more teams aren't involved.

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Red Sox and Cubs

They would pick Manny over Bryant...Damn.

I just want to know what is keeping the Cardinals, Rangers, Padres, Angels and Tigers out of the Machado/Harper buzz?

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Outside of the usual big spenders, it still amazes me more teams aren't involved.

Which is why 7/175 just makes no sense as being accurate

6 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I just want to know what is keeping the Cardinals, Rangers, Padres, Angels and Tigers out of the Machado/Harper buzz?

I could see teams at towards the start of a rebuild (KC, Bal, Det) being out of it, but yeah teams that have payroll space and need a huge bat should be all over it. 

I don't know what the Rangers plans are either, but he would make sense as a long-term replacement for Beltre. Or the Rockies dealing away a year of Arenado for prospects and signing a younger star now as opposed to an older Arenado. Or like you said for the Cardinals, they can shift DeJong to 2B and play Machado at SS for a year. Or shift Carpenter back to 2B and play him at 3B, whatever. 

Maybe not preferred destinations, but if they offered the most money they would look desirable. 

Edited January 17, 20197 yr by soxfan2014

3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I could see teams at towards the start of a rebuild (KC, Bal, Det) being out of it, but yeah teams that have payroll space and need a huge bat should be all over it. 

I don't know what the Rangers plans are either, but he would make sense as a long-term replacement for Beltre. Or the Rockies dealing away a year of Arenado for prospects and signing a younger star now as opposed to an older Arenado. Or like you said for the Cardinals, they can shift DeJong to 2B and play Machado at SS for a year. Or shift Carpenter back to 2B and play him at 3B, whatever.

Supposedly the Cards did inquire but the price was too high.  That is assuming any rumors we have heard so far are actually accurate.

18 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

He would also have Arenado to deal with next offseason.

And Rendon. And Bogaerts.  And, just for a twist, Josh Donaldson has a career resurgence and puts up All-Star numbers.

Edited January 17, 20197 yr by caulfield12

4 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I could see teams at towards the start of a rebuild (KC, Bal, Det) being out of it, but yeah teams that have payroll space and need a huge bat should be all over it. 

I don't know what the Rangers plans are either, but he would make sense as a long-term replacement for Beltre. Or the Rockies dealing away a year of Arenado for prospects and signing a younger star now as opposed to an older Arenado. Or like you said for the Cardinals, they can shift DeJong to 2B and play Machado at SS for a year. Or shift Carpenter back to 2B and play him at 3B, whatever. 

Maybe not preferred destinations, but if they offered the most money they would look desirable. 

Dejong and carp ss/2b, heck of an infield.

6 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I just want to know what is keeping the Cardinals, Rangers, Padres, Angels and Tigers out of the Machado/Harper buzz?

Twins too, they have just as much financial flexibility as the Sox.  Rangers and Tigers are rebuilding, and Angels already have a hefty payroll 

The Brewers are another team that makes sense. 

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

And Rendon. And Bogaerts.

Yup.  Good call.