Keith Law out, Bailey to sox again. Abel on board, goes 17.

Passing on Abel if he’s still on the board would be a gigantic mistake.

Figured I'd pull out some bits and pieces from Law's mock that I found interesting.

- Has Martin at number 2 for Baltimore, but notes rumblings of taking Kjerstad at a discount. Also heard they won't go pitcher, so no Lacy.

- Has the Royals taking Veen and notes they are cool on Gonzales.

- Has the Pirates taking Gonzales noting that this is his floor.

- Has the Sox selecting Bailey but notes "they want to take higher-ceiling high school guys later."

- Has Abel as the first prep arm off the board at 18 with Arizona, but notes Bitsko is in consideration for the Giants at 13.

- Kelley goes 23rd to Cleveland. Notes they favor prep arms who slip for non-performance reasons. Mentions that scouts were questioning his conditioning before the shutdown.

- Unsure on Ginn's signability but has the Yankees selecting him at 28.

 

Quote

Guest

12:02

Every mock seems to connect the White Sox to Patrick Bailey. Is this well known throughout the industry or is everyone putting a round peg in a round hole?

Keith Law

12:02

I actually think it's more the latter this time - he'd be the best college player on the board, they like him, catching is a weakness in the system anyway.

Via Law's chat today.

Edited May 28, 20205 yr by DirtySox

Also from the chat.

Quote

Yoyo

12:45

Morning. Almost all mocks have the White Sox on Bailey. Callis noted they are also on all sorts of prep bats/arms which would be a different direction than usual. Does Mike Shirley taking over perhaps change the draft strategy this year?

Keith Law

12:45

The draft strategy there has always been set from above. I don't think that has changed - and if they're on prep guys I would bet on it happening in rounds 2-3 rather than round 1.

 

Edited May 28, 20205 yr by DirtySox

My first mock this year:

1. C Tyler Soderstrom Turlock HS 

2. LHP Jake Eder Vanderbilt 

3. RHP Ben Hernandez De La Salle (IL)

4. OF David Calabrese St. Elizabeth (ON)

5. SS Jimmy Glowenke Dallas Baptist

15 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Ed Howard just seems like it should happen. 

All for this if CWS goes the HS path...although I'm still hoping for Kjertsad>Meyer>Detmers at 11

3 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Figured I'd pull out some bits and pieces from Law's mock that I found interesting.

- Has Martin at number 2 for Baltimore, but notes rumblings of taking Kjerstad at a discount. Also heard they won't go pitcher, so no Lacy.

- Has the Royals taking Veen and notes they are cool on Gonzales.

- Has the Pirates taking Gonzales noting that this is his floor.

- Has the Sox selecting Bailey but notes "they want to take higher-ceiling high school guys later."

- Has Abel as the first prep arm off the board at 18 with Arizona, but notes Bitsko is in consideration for the Giants at 13.

- Kelley goes 23rd to Cleveland. Notes they favor prep arms who slip for non-performance reasons. Mentions that scouts were questioning his conditioning before the shutdown.

- Unsure on Ginn's signability but has the Yankees selecting him at 28.

All for this as well, just makes sense with the draft format this year

Taking a college guy at 11 and then HS rounds 2-5 makes a ton of sense, grab a good amount of college UDFAs too (from my understanding)

6 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

All for this if CWS goes the HS path...although I'm still hoping for Kjertsad>Meyer>Detmers at 11

All for this as well, just makes sense with the draft format this year

Taking a college guy at 11 and then HS rounds 2-5 makes a ton of sense, grab a good amount of college UDFAs too (from my understanding)

They won't be able to sign prep guys in rounds 2-5 unless they save money in round 1. 

You always take the BPA but I think the Sox biggest needs are (in no particular order) athletes, up the middle players (especially catchers), and starting pitching depth. 

Longenhagen mock draft

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-mock-draft-mach-one/

He has  the sox getting Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has hit for a very high average in college but not much game power. Longenhagen has noted though that he actually has big power but a swing which doesn't let him get to it in games and with a swing and approach change he could trade some average for power and hit for good game power. 

The sox don't have a great track record in changing swings but then again they did get more progressive the last years and hired guys like Johansson and lisle (who is gone again but that they tried showed the intention).

Interesting that most mocks now have the sox taking a college hitter when many speculations where they would go pitcher. 

But the speculation is that the attractive pitchers (and HS bats) are already gone so a college hitter which is the strength of this draft could be best value.

If one of the top pitchers or hs bats falls that could change of course but it seems the sox don't view the remaining pitchers and HS bats at 11 as very attractive.

Edited May 29, 20205 yr by Dominikk85

So here is my final prediction for the sox:

Soderstrom

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

So here is my final prediction for the sox:

Soderstrom

I'm gonna take a shot in the dark and guess Crochet so they can go college pitcher underslot, then go HS in rounds 2-5.

That said I hope it's Abel, with Meyer/Detmers as outside shots to fall and grab. 

If Veen falls I'm pulling a ricky williams draft (*don't care*)

9 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They won't be able to sign prep guys in rounds 2-5 unless they save money in round 1. 

We didn't save money last year on Vaughn and still got Dalquist and Thompson,

21 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We didn't save money last year on Vaughn and still got Dalquist and Thompson,

There were also significantly more rounds.

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

There were also significantly more rounds.

Yep, we saved tons of money by going college senior in every round 5-10 last year.  That is quite literally impossible this year.

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

There were also significantly more rounds.

oh shucksssss

4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Longenhagen mock draft

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-mock-draft-mach-one/

He has  the sox getting Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has hit for a very high average in college but not much game power. Longenhagen has noted though that he actually has big power but a swing which doesn't let him get to it in games and with a swing and approach change he could trade some average for power and hit for good game power. 

The sox don't have a great track record in changing swings but then again they did get more progressive the last years and hired guys like Johansson and lisle (who is gone again but that they tried showed the intention).

I would love Mitchell as the pick.  Take the high ceiling defensive speedster.  I am still an advocate for pitching, pitching, pitching but I favor Mitchell over Bailey if we are going hitters first. 

Edited May 29, 20205 yr by sox71

I wasn't on Mitchell but now I find out he has an 80 GF so I'm starting to like him a ittle more.  

7 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I wasn't on Mitchell but now I find out he has an 80 GF so I'm starting to like him a ittle more.  

The issue with Mitchell is the Type 1 diabetes. Even if you think it's a not a huge deal, it limits his value once he's in your organization but many teams wouldn't be interested in trading for him either. 

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We didn't save money last year on Vaughn and still got Dalquist and Thompson,

 

51 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yep, we saved tons of money by going college senior in every round 5-10 last year.  That is quite literally impossible this year.

Exactly. Last year, the Sox gave Andrew Vaughn the full slot. Then they gave Thompson $2.1 million in round 2 ($600K over slot). Andrew Dalquist got $2 million (that was like $1.3 million over slot). They paid their selection in rounds 5-10 $10K each to save the money to pay for it. That's not possible this year. 

In the 2020 draft, these are the bonus amounts.

1st round 11th overall: $4,547,500

2nd Round 47th overall: $1,580,200

3rd Round 83rd overall: $733,100

4th Round 112th overall: $517,400

5th Round 142nd overall: $386,600

Their best would likely be getting their first rounder for $4 million. They can save close to $1 million overall by doing this. This would allow them to spend $2 million in round 2 and over $1 million in round 3 by going 5% over their pool. Full slot will make it tough to accomplish though. 

43 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The issue with Mitchell is the Type 1 diabetes. Even if you think it's a not a huge deal, it limits his value once he's in your organization but many teams wouldn't be interested in trading for him either. 

You're right. It really isn't that big of an issue. Unfortunately, not everyone sees it that way.

59 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

Exactly. Last year, the Sox gave Andrew Vaughn the full slot. Then they gave Thompson $2.1 million in round 2 ($600K over slot). Andrew Dalquist got $2 million (that was like $1.3 million over slot). They paid their selection in rounds 5-10 $10K each to save the money to pay for it. That's not possible this year. 

In the 2020 draft, these are the bonus amounts.

1st round 11th overall: $4,547,500

2nd Round 47th overall: $1,580,200

3rd Round 83rd overall: $733,100

4th Round 112th overall: $517,400

5th Round 142nd overall: $386,600

Their best would likely be getting their first rounder for $4 million. They can save close to $1 million overall by doing this. This would allow them to spend $2 million in round 2 and over $1 million in round 3 by going 5% over their pool. Full slot will make it tough to accomplish though. 

Rounds 4 and 5 you could go 10k (like last year) and then bring round 2 and 3 to 2 mil and 1 mill correct?