20 minutes ago, Swingandalongonetoleft said:

That's pretty much exactly what I expect if they sign him. If you're not going to get a SP via trade, go after one of the top two. If you're not willing to open the wallet for them, stand pat. Addition for the sake of addition sucks, and that's what throwing money at Bumgarner, Keuchel, or Ryu is. 

Ryu finished 2nd in the Cy Young last year.

23 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

 

And this is what I was afraid of.  You miss out on Wheeler and now all the lesser options are ridiculously overpriced.  $100M for Bumgarner would be absolute insanity.

There's going to be a wide gulf between what Bum gets and what Ryu gets, and another gap, likely, between Ryu's and Keuchel's likely payday. Neither of the latter are touching 100MM, for good reasons. The Sox can't punt on the 2020 rotation, it's too large a need.

At this point, my plan A would be to pivot to Cole and Strasburg, understanding that is likely a pipedream.

Plan B: Get Ryu on a reasonable 3 year deal, and find a 1 year stop gap for the other spot.  

Overpaying MadBum ($100M+ for him is insanity), or trading from our elite prospects to add pitching isn't the answer.  

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

At this point, my plan A would be to pivot to Cole and Strasburg, understanding that is likely a pipedream.

Plan B: Get Ryu on a reasonable 3 year deal, and find a 1 year stop gap for the other spot.  

Overpaying MadBum ($100M+ for him is insanity), or trading from our elite prospects to add pitching isn't the answer.  

What is a reasonable 3 year deal for Ryu in your view?

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

At this point, my plan A would be to pivot to Cole and Strasburg, understanding that is likely a pipedream.

Plan B: Get Ryu on a reasonable 3 year deal, and find a 1 year stop gap for the other spot.  

Overpaying MadBum ($100M+ for him is insanity), or trading from our elite prospects to add pitching isn't the answer.  

Anything under 3/60 for ryu would be acceptable, then cross fingers. 

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

What is a reasonable 3 year deal for Ryu in your view?

3/$60M, give or take a few million. 

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What is a reasonable 3 year deal for Ryu in your view?

Up to 70 million, probably a little less.

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

3/$60M, give or take a few million. 

I think he will be closer to 3/$70M.

Just now, Buehrle>Wood said:

Up to 70 million, probably a little less.

That would be my guess.

For ryu, I’m assuming insurance may be higher for him so you may be looking at a 12% or so premium, but it’s also not hard to shed a two year 40 mill deal from a high promise picture with just 25-30% of the cost and then dip back in well next year.

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Anything under 3/60 for ryu would be acceptable, then cross fingers. 

I’d very much expect a higher total amount than that based on these first pitcher signings. Maybe not a ton more than that but whatever your ceiling is, contracts are blowing past it by 20%.

 

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I’d very much expect a higher total amount than that based on these first pitcher signings. Maybe not a ton more than that but whatever your ceiling is, contracts are blowing past it by 20%.

Yeah, I can’t do the AAV math in my head so I stick to round numbers but 20% of that is what, 3/72? I guess that’s in line with some recent pitchers. He is a bizarre guy to benchmark.

We can give up the Cole and Stras dream. We aren’t going to pay $180-200M for any pitcher. 

Edited December 4, 20196 yr by Soxnfins

1 hour ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Let the Twins overpay for him. I’ll take Ryu and Castellanos.

Twins are in on Ryu too supposedly.

Checked Bums stats from last year. A very good year by any standard you choose.Only negative was homers. 30 dingers is a lot. On the other hand he's never done that before. Usually less than 20 a season. I'd rather pony up for Strasburg though.

At 100 plus forget him although I like him. 

I'd rather land Ryu for 3 years and Wood for 1.

It’s been reported we are interested in him, we will not sign him. Unless he really wants to come here, which is possible so he won’t get automatically fined for his constraint chaw (SF automatically fines you even if you have it in your possession, as you can tell Abreu didn’t get fined ha). Abreu & Bum would be best of friends, might have to bum one off them... that being said, 3/75M is the MAX (given the current market) I’d go on MadBum, even though he’s worth around 65... shorter deal, higher AAV, all.the.lefties pt2  still think he’s a bad idea  

 

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Edited December 4, 20196 yr by Soxnfins

1 hour ago, MyNamesRod said:

So are analytics high or low on Bumgarner? He seems like the kind of guy they’d be low on but the fact that his fastball speed increased by so much has me thinking otherwise 

They are both. I put a post and links to articles in the Wheeler thread saying how much his fastball/curveball spin rates improved like top of the league improvement. His hard hit balls % wasn't so good. Bottom 15% if I remember right . I;m not a sabremetrician so I'm sure there re other metrics to use on either side.

I will say I don't dislike him as much as every here besides turnin' two. I have been suggesting that with the increased spin rate he might ve had a few problems with commanding those pitches at the higher spin rate and would look to next year to him having a much better idea on where his pitches were going. Even though his walk rate was good I think he left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate that were hit hard and resulted in a lot of HR's. This is just me trying to project him whereas most people are saying please no, God no ,and hard pass because a player is always who he is especially with the mileage on his arm and being a fly ball pitcher. I think he will be better, most do not.

49 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

Madbum or Ryu, veteran lefty added to a young righty heavy rotation. I'd be good with either. Sox have a plethora of young pitchers, need a workhorse leader in the rotation. MadBum would maybe be rejuvenated in Chicago. The dude is a pure winner, even if the skill has regressed some.  That said, 100 MILLION? Dunno about that.

Yep...MadBum is OK but the money is nuts.  15 million per yr would be tolerable but apparently not doable.

2 hours ago, NotHahn said:

Alot of Hard Passing here today

Viagra sales at SoxTalk are through the roof!

18 minutes ago, zisk said:

Checked Bums stats from last year. A very good year by any standard you choose.Only negative was homers. 30 dingers is a lot. On the other hand he's never done that before. Usually less than 20 a season. I'd rather pony up for Strasburg though.

He’ll give up 25-30 HR annually at the Cell IMO... and we won’t sign Strasberg. Not a snowballs chance. 

I guess I’m a little confused why everyone is firmly in the Ryu over MadBum camp. Is it a strictly the $? I know Bumgarner isn’t the same guy but he’s still a lot younger than Ryu, who can never stay healthy. 

Bob says they haven't entered into negotiations yet with MadBum.