COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

Hmm. Wanna hear my thoughts about stimulus checks?

Sir, you really need to stay in your lane.

[Texsox]

5 hours ago, Danny Dravot said:

Well, the idea of $2,000 per person with zero consideration to their individual circumstances is really a great idea. Extend UI and let people apply for benefits without proving hardship, then give everyone a couple grand with an incentive to spend it instead of investing sweetens it a bit more. 

Ask and you shall receive.

Excellent post. 

[StrangeSox]

6 hours ago, Danny Dravot said:

 

You guys are hilarious. Panic to your heart's content, then.

It's a clear way of demonstrating the continued failure of our government, especially at the federal level, that has led to massive death and suffering.

Will it continue at this pace? There is reason to hope it won't. But that doesn't excuse the ongoing failures that are causing more people to die every day.

I don't think mass death events are hilarious. I don't think repeated failure to take available steps to prevent more deaths is hilarious. I think the people who continue to fail and continue to get thousands of Americans killed every single day should be held accountable.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Texsox
Evil misquoter

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

It's a clear way of demonstrating the continued failure of our government, especially at the federal level, that has led to massive death and suffering.

Will it continue at this pace? There is reason to hope it won't. But that doesn't excuse the ongoing failures that are causing more people to die every day.

I don't think mass death events are hilarious. I don't think repeated failure to take available steps to prevent more deaths is hilarious. I think the people who continue to fail and continue to get thousands of Americans killed every single day should be held accountable.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/politics/giroir-better-job-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-cnntv/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/us/florida-coronavirus-vaccine-line/index.html

 

The first time I can remember someone from the Trump administration admitting they need to be doing a better job...of course, they come from a military and not civilian background, so not 100% shocking.

 

 

"Although I'm grateful to get the vaccine, I feel that there's got to be a better way to distribute this," he said afterward. "For people that really need it, elderly that might be disabled in some way, they can't endure this process, so there's got to be a better way to manage this."

The long wait is a preview of what looks to be a tumultuous vaccine rollout and reflects the public's pent-up demand for vaccines as well as the logistical difficulty in administering them in an orderly way.

The issue is partly a consequence of the lack of consistent federal guidance in administering vaccines, as President Donald Trump deferred that decision-making to the states. In turn, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis broke with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to focus first on vaccinating the elderly rather than essential workers, and he has encouraged each county health department to make its own decisions on administering the vaccines.

 

But the Florida situation is a perfect example of what NOT to do, which is making the elderly camp out or wait in lines of up to 8-9 hours.   Imagine if you live in the NE, Rust Belt, Rockies, etc.   They could literally be killing off old people due to exposure...ironically, while waiting in lines to get a vaccine to save themselves, the fighting over the vaccine itself might turn out to be even more dangerous than the virus.

Edited December 31, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

10 hours ago, Danny Dravot said:

Hmm. Wanna hear my thoughts about stimulus checks?

Yes, though I think I read them. Why not offer stimulus checks to those who demonstrate need instead of across the board? I still don’t know why I needed $600 and $1,200...

[StrangeSox]

Means testing inevitably screws some people over and undermines broad political support. You're also trying to do it as stimulus to spur demand rather than direct relief, so even if you don't "need" it but you spend it you're still accomplishing the goal.

 

Better to send everyone a check and recoup them from the wealthy with taxes on the backend. Cleaner, cheaper, simpler.

[StrangeSox]

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

12 hours ago, Danny Dravot said:

 

You guys are hilarious. Panic to your heart's content, then.

You know what's really driving me nuts? I mean, first of all, "panic" has been the right response what, 80 or 90% of this year? But even beyond that, here's the one driving me nuts.

I have been telling Jack Parkman that this vaccine will work and we can get there all year. That the trials were working, that they were being conducted well. Earlier this fall, I said that the plan of 10+ million injections this month was feasible. We have that many shots produced and it's not this hard to distribute the flu vaccine. If they can't find people to give it to, give me a shot for crying out loud I'll take one right now. Yet somehow, only 2 million people have gotten it in the entire month. 

The execution of this has been so poor it has made Jack Parkman's worries correct. (Jack, no offense. Maybe a little offense). 

[StrangeSox]

 

[gatnom]

With the year coming to a close, I thought it might be interesting to check back in on that U of I testing data to see how it played out over the course of the semester. Aside from the initial wave associated with all the kids coming back onto campus to start the semester, it seems to have held up fairly well. The case positivity mainly stayed between ~0.3% to ~0.6% with some outliers on each side, and the total cases per day stayed generally well below 50 until the October surge that hit state/nationwide. Even then, it still stayed below 50 more often than not; there was just a notable uptick in positive cases.

I get that it's impossible to know for sure, but it doesn't seem glaringly obvious to me that the students would be any safer remote learning. Score one for the physicists and the epidemiologist they worked with?

[StrangeSox]

 

 

[Big Hurtin]

15 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

 

 

 

"More than disappointed" is far too soft for what this person did.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Big Hurtin said:

"More than disappointed" is far too soft for what this person did.

It’s obviously not second degree murder, but how can someone who deliberately does such a thing not at least get 30-90 days in jail?

And how long until other enflamed anti-vaxxers come up with similar copycat sabotage efforts?

[bmags]

10 hours ago, gatnom said:

With the year coming to a close, I thought it might be interesting to check back in on that U of I testing data to see how it played out over the course of the semester. Aside from the initial wave associated with all the kids coming back onto campus to start the semester, it seems to have held up fairly well. The case positivity mainly stayed between ~0.3% to ~0.6% with some outliers on each side, and the total cases per day stayed generally well below 50 until the October surge that hit state/nationwide. Even then, it still stayed below 50 more often than not; there was just a notable uptick in positive cases.

I get that it's impossible to know for sure, but it doesn't seem glaringly obvious to me that the students would be any safer remote learning. Score one for the physicists and the epidemiologist they worked with?

Amen

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

 

 

That’s the U.K. right? They decided to use their vaccine to give one dose to as many people as possible. Honestly I wouldn’t do this, but it may well save lives. It’s a country wide gamble. But it is based on the idea that the supply coming to them will be limited, which may be true.

At least they can get the shots to..SOMEONE.

[bmags]

11 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

That’s the U.K. right? They decided to use their vaccine to give one dose to as many people as possible. Honestly I wouldn’t do this, but it may well save lives. It’s a country wide gamble. But it is based on the idea that the supply coming to them will be limited, which may be true.

At least they can get the shots to..SOMEONE.

It’s also in fairfax Canada.

it’s not moving to a one shot dosage like that person is trying to insinuate, it just increased the interval for the second dose beyond 21 days.

I’d support it here, but only when they show they can get the existing supplies into arms. Just get all available first doses into arms now and trust the production will be there. Very little support showing huge drop offs in protection after 21 days that justify keeping millions of more people at zero percent protection.

[StrangeSox]

Very little support showing efficacy and durability of waiting twelve weeks for the booster, though. Use what was actually tested on the timetable it was tested. Don't start screwing around and potentially making things worse. They're already bad enough. If you want to see if this works, do it as an actual trial with regular schedule and delayed doses and closely monitor to see what things actually look like. The UK has already taken a number of big gambles on this pandemic and lost every one.

 

Edit: a number of discussions from smart people with relevant expertise. Big one is that it'll further erode already shakey public confidence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ongoing vaccine rollout disaster and now corruption

 

deSantis did similar at The Villages in Florida.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

Another report out on the UK variant finding increased R0 of +0.4-.7

 

That's a substantial difference in how fast/easily it can spread. No known biological mechanism at this point, thankfully no apparent increased mortality.  More transmissible is worse than more deadly with all other things being equal, though.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/

 

The South African variant spreading nearly as fast but having existing immunity evasion is more troubling but reports are still early on that one.

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

Federal officials said as recently as earlier in December that their goal was to have 20 million people get their first shot by the end of 2020. More than 14 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had been sent out across the United States, federal officials said Wednesday. But, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, just 2.8 million people have received their first dose, although that number may be somewhat low because of lags in reporting.

States vary widely in how many of the doses they have received have been given out. South Dakota leads the country with more than 48% of its doses given, followed by West Virginia at 38%. By contrast, Kansas has given out less than 11%, and Georgia, less than 14%.

Compounding the challenges, federal officials say they do not fully understand the cause of the delays. But state health officials and hospital leaders throughout the country pointed to several factors. States have held back doses to be given out to their nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities, an effort that is just gearing up and expected to take several months. Across the country, just 8% of the doses distributed for use in these facilities have been administered, with 2 million yet to be given.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-distribution-vaccine-taking-134801580.html

[raBBit]

On 12/30/2020 at 9:47 AM, Danny Dravot said:

That "unmitigated disaster" produced multiple vaccines to a major pandemic in nine months. Slower rollout in the first two weeks of distribution is disappointing but hardly destroys the value of the entire enterprise.

Anyone saying Warp Speed was a disaster has so much bias they can't see two feet in front of their face. All year people said it was crazy to think we would have a vaccine in 2021 let alone multiple in 2020 as soon as the media declared Biden the winner. 

[Texsox]

What was the government's role in developing the vaccines? 

 

[StrangeSox]

NIH scientists developed the spike protein in the Moderna vaccine.

 

The federal rollout of the vaccines, just like with testing and ppe, has been a huge disaster with no clear end in sight. But sure, yeah, they've done a bang up job.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

What was the government's role in developing the vaccines? 

 

Guaranteed to buy them even if they failed or were not needed

[Balta1701]

17 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Another report out on the UK variant finding increased R0 of +0.4-.7

 

That's a substantial difference in how fast/easily it can spread. No known biological mechanism at this point, thankfully no apparent increased mortality.  More transmissible is worse than more deadly with all other things being equal, though.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/

 

The South African variant spreading nearly as fast but having existing immunity evasion is more troubling but reports are still early on that one.

 

After looking around for a couple days, it seems like people are genuinely scared by the UK one. In the UK, the available evidence seems to suggest that this strain has already jumped ahead of the other strain to become the dominant circulating variety in the London area in a period of only a couple weeks. 

 

 Numbers are early again, but it looks possible that this variant is increasing symptoms and hospital admittances amongst younger age groups.

 

 If the "50% more transmissable" numbers implied by the 2 studies looking at it over the last month are right, then that's the difference between having an R value of 0.9 and 1.6 in the same area. So, if this variant is actually out there...then it's got a good chance of erupting.

[StrangeSox]

Here's some napkin math illustrating why a big jump in transmissibility is so scary. You go from a baseline of 129 deaths to 978 with the new variant from just a month's worth of infections starting with 10k cases.