2021 MLB Draft Thread

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Rebuilding teams won’t trade major league players for young prospects? What? What did the Padres just trade for Yu Darvish? 

Yeah, like literally no one said the bolded, but I'll grant you that it was a decent STRAWMAN on your part. In effect, the Padres traded to the scrubs salary relief, since the scrubs' ownership decided to stop spending money.

 

What I did state is that players that could take longer to develop might take longer to become trade chips. Prep players tend to take longer to develop than college players. Thus, I think I'd prefer college players in the draft, given where this org is in the competitive window.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, I'll concede that this is hard to adjudicate, given the lack of a 2020 MiLB season. But, think of a prep kid like Gladney. He ain't helping this year's team, or next year's team. And no other org will trade anything we can use NOW for a kid like him that will need YEARS to develop into anything. 

OTOH, a faster climber could help during this window, by being a piece to trade away. While I'd like the system to get younger, I don't think this org has the luxury of time for prep players to develop, at least right now.

Given whats leaving via FA in the nearer term, and a questionable level of talent throughout the system, I'm thinking whoever they draft will help more by being a trade piece.

More succinctly, the system looks like its pretty devoid of potential impact. Most/all of it is already here, IMO. More likely, whatever 2nd wave that'll come into the 26 man will probably come from other orgs.

And with what;s left of the older prospects, you have Kopech and Crochett who are being conditioned for those spots potentially.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And with what;s left of the older prospects, you have Kopech and Crochett who are being conditioned for those spots potentially.

Indeed. I dont yet know what to make of Crochett, though. Here's hoping he can find that next level that Cease may not have without the sticky substances.

 

In any case, it does look like there will be vacancies in the 26 man next season.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[bmags]

4 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, like literally no one said the bolded, but I'll grant you that it was a decent STRAWMAN on your part. In effect, the Padres traded to the scrubs salary relief, since the scrubs' ownership decided to stop spending money.

 

What I did state is that players that could take longer to develop might take longer to become trade chips. Prep players tend to take longer to develop than college players. Thus, I think I'd prefer college players in the draft, given where this org is in the competitive window.

High school players don't take longer to become trade chips, see Matt Liberatore, Jarred Kelenic, both traded a year after selection in high profile deals. Teams shedding major league talent are trying to get the best players and scouts are quite capable of giving opinions on whether success is due to competition or age, they do it every draft.

[Boopa1219]

18 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I dunno.

I get that the draftniks around here prefer prep players. However, given that this org is in their competitive window, I think I'd rather try to find talent that can get to MLB quickly, either as pieces to use here, or as trade ammo. I dont think that the current competitive window matches up well with drafting prep players, and then maybe waiting a few years for them to mature. 

There already will be a vacancy or two in the rotation next season. And even if that means "promoting" Kopech to the rotation, that leaves a big hole in the pen. At the same time, other parts of this team are aging, even as the team is right now trying to win.

 

To me, that means maybe this org should target college players, be they position players or arms. (Shrugs)

If you want to extend the window and keep things going long term, prep guys help you do that. They might not be ready a quickly but they generally offer more upside. 

[Boopa1219]

On 7/7/2021 at 11:33 AM, Two-Gun Pete said:

What I did state is that players that could take longer to develop might take longer to become trade chips. Prep players tend to take longer to develop than college players. Thus, I think I'd prefer college players in the draft, given where this org is in the competitive window.

Look around baseball, high upside prep players are high valuable. The pieces the Cubs got back from SD aren’t bad, it’s been reported that a lot of the team analytics models really like Owen Cassie for example. The Dads drafted him in 2020 and were able to move him quickly.

Look at another SD trade, the Joe Musgrove deal was headlined by Hudson Head.

If the Sox had more of a prep focus in recent years, they would’ve have an easier time making trades now. Their farm system is old, it lacks upside across the board and that has to change. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Joshua Strong
Spelling

[oldsox]

3 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

Look around baseball, high upside prep players are high valuable. The pieces the Cubs got back from SD aren’t bad, it’s been reported that a lot of the team analytics models really like Owen Cassie for example. The Dads drafted him in 2020 and were able to move him quickly.

Look at another SD trade, the Joe Musgrove deal was headlined by Hudson Head.

If the Sox had more of a prep focus in recent years, they would’ve have an easier time making trades now. Their farm system is old, it lacks upside across the board and that was to change. 

Probably true.  If Sox had been able to keep their team in Great Falls, I wonder how bad they would have been.

[Two-Gun Pete]

16 hours ago, bmags said:

High school players don't take longer to become trade chips, see Matt Liberatore, Jarred Kelenic, both traded a year after selection in high profile deals. 

Both of these guys played at the old rookie level that no longer exists. Perhaps there are some prep players that can reliably make the jump from HS to A Ball, but I haven't looked at this carefully. This will he interesting to see what the effect would be.

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

Probably true.  If Sox had been able to keep their team in Great Falls, I wonder how bad they would have been.

Great Falls probably would have helped a lot of prep players and college players that did not face top competition, and/or had no experience with wooden bats. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

If you want to extend the window and keep things going long term, prep guys help you do that. They might not be ready a quickly but they generally offer more upside. 

This window ain't gonna be about longer term, in all honesty. We're losing 1 or 2 SPs (and the best 2 SPs from the rotation) this offseason. Who knows what Giolito will be, and if he'd re-sign here.  Keuchel is aging before our eyes. Hendriks and Grandal are on the wrong side of 32. And significant injuries seem to be all over the roster. 

All these issues, taken together, can be curtailing forces on the length of this window. Meanwhile, Detroit and KC will be improving in the ALC. So who knows how long we'll be where we are?

5 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

Look around baseball, high upside prep players are high valuable.

If the Sox had more of a prep focus in recent years, they would’ve have an easier time making trades now. Their farm system is old, it lacks upside across the board and that was to change. 

Don't disagree that they could/should have had more of a prep focus in the recent past. And yes, while this system is old, ALL MLB systems are older, given the lack of a MiLB season last year.

But this window is closing faster than we think. And I don't know that this org has the luxury of time to wait for prep players to "arrive," particularly given the short timeframe of the window, and the lack of a rookie level nowadays.

This is not to say that prep draftees do not have value by any means. Rather, I'm looking at where this org is, and how long this org might be here. YMMV.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

 

[PolishPrince34]

Keith Law 3rd mock

21. Chicago Cubs: Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS

I’d heard them heavily on Will Taylor, but he’s going to be long gone. Their approach seems to be more for high-upside high school position players, which could mean Pacheco, Allen, Braden Montgomery (if he’d sign), or maybe Tyler Whitaker.

22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge (IN) HS

All spring it’s been Colson Montgomery, Chase Petty and Pacheco for the White Sox. They might have their pick of all three.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Kiley McDaniel's latest is very interesting. Last year, he projected Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley on the morning of the draft. This is what he has this year. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

22. Chicago White Sox

Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA), Arkansas commit

I think they're hoping for Colson Montgomery and are probably his floor, but I think this pick will come down to Muncy and Joe Mack. The backup options are mostly the leftover college arms with McGreevy the only one who makes it here. Keep an eye on Cody Morissette, Andrew Abbott and some power prep arms (Painter, Jackson Baumeister, Petty, Chase Burns) at their later picks.

57. Chicago White Sox: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ), Florida commit

[Quin]

2 hours ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Keith Law 3rd mock

21. Chicago Cubs: Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS

I’d heard them heavily on Will Taylor, but he’s going to be long gone. Their approach seems to be more for high-upside high school position players, which could mean Pacheco, Allen, Braden Montgomery (if he’d sign), or maybe Tyler Whitaker.

22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge (IN) HS

All spring it’s been Colson Montgomery, Chase Petty and Pacheco for the White Sox. They might have their pick of all three.

Doesn't have Hoglund in the first, for anyone that would be a fan of that pick.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Kiley McDaniel's latest is very interesting. Last year, he projected Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley on the morning of the draft. This is what he has this year. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

22. Chicago White Sox

Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA), Arkansas commit

I think they're hoping for Colson Montgomery and are probably his floor, but I think this pick will come down to Muncy and Joe Mack. The backup options are mostly the leftover college arms with McGreevy the only one who makes it here. Keep an eye on Cody Morissette, Andrew Abbott and some power prep arms (Painter, Jackson Baumeister, Petty, Chase Burns) at their later picks.

57. Chicago White Sox: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ), Florida commit

Wow,, Montgomery all of the way up to #10.

[Timmy U]

I hope Law is right, but McDaniel knows his stuff.  Muncy seems like a slight reach at 22.  I am not on Petty, but what do I know?

[ChiSoxJon]

22 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Kiley McDaniel's latest is very interesting. Last year, he projected Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley on the morning of the draft. This is what he has this year. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

22. Chicago White Sox

Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA), Arkansas commit

I think they're hoping for Colson Montgomery and are probably his floor, but I think this pick will come down to Muncy and Joe Mack. The backup options are mostly the leftover college arms with McGreevy the only one who makes it here. Keep an eye on Cody Morissette, Andrew Abbott and some power prep arms (Painter, Jackson Baumeister, Petty, Chase Burns) at their later picks.

57. Chicago White Sox: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ), Florida commit

This would be absolutely awesome, 2 first round talents again? Sign me up

[bmags]

With Laws notes on petty I did start to think he sounds like a 2nd round target

[Y2Jimmy0]

56 minutes ago, bmags said:

With Laws notes on petty I did start to think he sounds like a 2nd round target

27th overall player on pipeline. If they can do Montgomery/Muncy at 22 and Petty at 57, that’s a real jolt to the system 

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

27th overall player on pipeline. If they can do Montgomery/Muncy at 22 and Petty at 57, that’s a real jolt to the system 

I’d love it but also re: Petty he just feels like a guy that a scouting sites will have higher than team boards because of risk. 

[ChiSoxJon]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I’d love it but also re: Petty he just feels like a guy that a scouting sites will have higher than team boards because of risk. 

Health risk on arm?

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Health risk on arm?

He's a short HS pitcher that throws 100 mph. The industry usually doesn't like those types. Fulmer was a college pitcher and the industry (outside of the Sox brass) didn't really like him either. Then add the HS vs college aspect on and go from there. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[DirtySox]

New BA mock.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

Quote

Colson Montgomery

Southridge HS, Huntingburg, Ind.SS

Notes:

The names linked to the White Sox haven’t changed significantly since our last update, so we’re thinking powerful prep hitters like Montgomery, James Wood, Peyton Stovall and Wes Kath. We haven’t heard Izaac Pacheco mentioned specifically with the White Sox, but he is getting talked about more of late, and could fit as well.

 

Edited July 9, 2021 by DirtySox

[PolishPrince34]

After graduations of Kopech, Crochet, Vaughn, Madrigal, and Heuer, White Sox are dead last. Not surprising.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

Edited July 10, 2021 by PolishPrince34

[PolishPrince34]

Great article on sleepers from Fangraphs.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statistical-diamonds-in-the-rough-2/

[hi8is]

5 hours ago, PolishPrince34 said:

After graduations of Kopech, Crochet, Vaughn, Madrigal, and Heuer, White Sox are dead last. Not surprising.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

Good.