I thought I'd start to discuss this...

1. It seems like because most MLB stadiums are outdoors, there is a good chance that there will be some fans in the stands. I think they might be able to operate at 25% capacity. 

2. With 25% of gate revenue, how many games will the owners be willing to play? I think chances are high for another shortened season. Either  80 or 100 games is my guess. 

3. Given how contentious the last negotiation was between the MLB/MLBPA, can they even agree to have a season, or will they go directly to CBA negotiations? 

That's all I have for now. 

 

Ask again in February or March.

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

Ask again in February or March.

Nothing is likely to get any better by then, it can only get worse. 

A vaccine is unlikely. 

Edited September 22, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nothing is likely to get any better by then, it can only get worse. 

A vaccine is unlikely. 

Nonsense. Every word of it.

Would guess there's going to be significantly more than 25% capacity, but it's too early to really say.

6 months is a TON of time to get through in a pandemic.

27 minutes ago, chitown87 said:

Nonsense. Every word of it.

They are saying 6 to 9 mo the at least for vaccination of the people. It may be a problem for the season. 

5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

They are saying 6 to 9 mo the at least for vaccination of the people. It may be a problem for the season. 

No.  That's the absolute best case scenario from right now if the vaccine is actually vetted and ready to go.    6-9 months is extremely optimistic 

Just now, Kyyle23 said:

No.  That's the absolute best case scenario from right now if the vaccine is actually vetted and ready to go.    6-9 months is extremely optimistic 

Yep. That's my point. 6 to 9 months is the start, and hoping all goes well. 

I think the two biggest impacts will be as follows: 

1. Attendance - 25% without a vaccine, 50% once they have one mid summer. 

2. Minor leagues - I think this is once again the biggest risk. Teams are going to be really struggling financially with a reduced gate and the Minors will be a shell of what it was. 
ALL focus will be put on the big league club. 

Next year will be played entirely normally. Full fans from day 1. Mark it down.

34 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

6 months is a TON of time to get through in a pandemic.

Agreed.  Think about how long this pandemic has been going on...it feels like an eternity, but it's been just over 6 months.

I printed out the 2021 schedule last night, and the spring training schedule came out last week too. All I can say when I look at that schedule is, “Really?”

Hoping for the best, but the Sox being in Anaheim on April 1st is a big “I’ll believe it when I see it”.

I also expect a full season.

Jack Parkman also told us there would be no baseball until at least 2023.  So his claim of maybe 25% capacity next season is to be taken with a major grain of salt.

There are a lot of unknowns about the future with this pandemic, but the idea that next April 25% capacity is a best case scenario is laughable, considering football stadiums are already allowing fans.

Count me in as optimistic that next season will be much closer to 'normal' than not.

16 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Jack Parkman also told us there would be no baseball until at least 2023.  So his claim of maybe 25% capacity next season is to be taken with a major grain of salt.

There are a lot of unknowns about the future with this pandemic, but the idea that next April 25% capacity is a best case scenario is laughable, considering football stadiums are already allowing fans.

Count me in as optimistic that next season will be much closer to 'normal' than not.

I think 25% capacity is likely and 50% is possible. 

However, I do think that anything more than 50% is highly improbable. 

Indoor sports like the NBA and NHL are going to have a more difficult time playing with fans. 

 

Btw I had no idea that Manfred had the authority to mandate a season when I made that comment(no baseball until 2023) I thought any season with reduced pay for the players had to be collectively bargained. Given they were nowhere near close to a deal, I think it wasn't crazy under that assumption. 

Edited September 22, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

Whatever it is as long as we have the "new normal" of White Sox postseason baseball, I am all in!!!

Let's see how flu + COVID season goes before we make any assumptions. 

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Let's see how flu + COVID season goes before we make any assumptions. 

Yeah, that's the big one. 

 

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

No.  That's the absolute best case scenario from right now if the vaccine is actually vetted and ready to go.    6-9 months is extremely optimistic 

This^

Could see teams resorting to more revenue sharing to get through next season, if they choose to hold it. Owners stated they lose $640,000 by every game played, highly suspect, and wouldn't put it past them to cancel the next season and beyond between their "losses" and the CBA, if fans aren't allowed in at or near capacity. And I don't see that happening by Opening Day 2021; by year end is a possibility.

In terms of strictly baseball:

Best case scenario:

1. A full season (I suspect owners will try to weasel out of paying players for lack of attendance, just like this year when they demanded additional cuts beyond pro-rated salaries).
2. A return to the prior postseason format (not 16 team every team sniffing .500 is in). I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.
3. Postseason will be played, and fans will be able to attend at home stadiums, at a rate of 50-100%.

Worst case scenario:

1. Owners lock out / players walk out due to owner demands for additional salary cuts. Season and or post season not finished / conducted, or another slashing of 60-100 games to hold a second straight farcical season.
2. 16 team playoffs (or more, NHL increased the count to 24 teams).
3. Another off-season of collusion, this time with COVID as an excuse, forces a walkout.

1994 occurred without COVID, but with Jerry. Anything can happen with either between now and a year from now. 

I think the more interesting question is as a fan, would you be willing to attend games without a vaccine? There are many die-hards here, but I don't see a large portion of the populace willing to plunk down money to sit in a packed ballpark, with or without masks.

Edited September 22, 20205 yr by South Side Hit Men

I expect that baseball could manage a full season but that many teams will be facing attendance restrictions at least to start the year. Some teams may still be empty.  States like Texas, Georgia, and Florida will probably have no limits, because they continue trying hard to make sure people do get sick and die. Given that, even in optimistic situations the US won't have the outbreak under control early next year, and even if an effective vaccine is available it won't be distributed widely enough to allow fans safely, even in the ballparks where the government says its ok. MLB will need to use some sort of contact tracing and quarantine rules for places that do, so that they can cover their own tails. Hopefully, vaccine distribution goes up during the year and we start getting past this.

Could the owners say they're not willing to take losses and demand paycuts/fewer games, such that the season doesn't begin on time? Maybe. 

I am sure the players will all be vaccinated. CDC said late 2nd quarter early 3rd for some normalcy seems to be fair. What will be interesting is how many will get vaccinated. It’s going to take a while and many, I keep reading over 40% insist they wont get it. Who knows where we will be at. Go back 6 months and I doubt anyone really thought those fortunate enough to still be working would be working from home. It was 5 months ago POTUS  was hoping for an Easter re open. The VP said the virus would be behind us by Memorial Day. Now it looks like it may get bad again. The other thing is the vaccine supposedly won’t give you full immunity. It will just make it more mild if you do catch it. I would suspect they will have some fans at the parks at the beginning, probably delaying opening day if that isn’t feasible in April. 

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It’s going to take a while and many, I keep reading over 40% insist they wont get it.

I am FAR from an anti-vaxxer, but I don't think I'll be first in line for a vaccine that was developed in 8 months

10 minutes ago, mqr said:

I am FAR from an anti-vaxxer, but I don't think I'll be first in line for a vaccine that was developed in 8 months

^^^

1 hour ago, mqr said:

I am FAR from an anti-vaxxer, but I don't think I'll be first in line for a vaccine that was developed in 8 months

Let's see what sort of data is released. You can pull this off this quickly in a crisis situation, and 3-4 months after the widespread trials begin is enough to know how the risks of side-effects compare to the huge risk of long-term damage from this thing. 

If they put one out in October and refuse to release information on what was done or what the results were, lots of obvious red flags. It took the NYT publishing a big "Hey why aren't they releasing any information" article last week for a couple of the vaccine candidates to suddenly do big data dumps of their procedures, but not all have done so yet.