Guys 2020 was a small sample where teams played freakishly unbalanced schedules, against an all time high number of debutees. 

Throw 2020 out. 

Just now, ptatc said:

Lynn is a really good pitcher for 8 mil for next year. We all know the budget is going to be really restrictive due to the lack off revenue this year. The rotation after Lynn leaves will be Giolito,  Keuchal, Cease , Kopech and probably steiver or Lambert, unless they acquire someone else. They will use next year to get kopech and other up to speed again.

To your point - Lynn's contract is so good for the next year, this deal basically puts the Sox in the same spot as they were entering the day, which is having a ton of flexibility. What is to say they aren't pushing their chips forward and plan on leveraging another prospect or two, plus payroll to get another front line, yet cost controlled starter with the intent to eventually replace Lynn with one of their younger pitchers who hopefully takes a step forward (Kopech, Cease, Croquet).  Could the Sox land Darvish without giving up one of those other names, but more going down an alternative path - I don't know, but whose to say they can't go get one more front of the rotation type of guy at this point.  Or maybe they figure they are buying themselves a year while they try to lock down Gio a bit longer and better see what they have in others while maintaining massive flexibility. 

Like I said - I think I would have preferred other options, but I don't think Dunning for Lynn is a massive overpay or anything of that elk.  

4 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Dunning was worth 0.7 WAR in 2020. Lance Lynn was worth 1.5 WAR in 2020. If those trends continue, the White Sox massively lose this trade. What's worse, because of the aging curve, Lynn is likely to get worse while Dunning is likely to remain the same or get better.

That 1.5 put him in the top 20 or so guys in the game, ahead of Gerritt Cole.   He put up 6.8 WAR the year before and there’s a legit chance Dunning never sniffs 6.8 for his career

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Lynn is a really good pitcher for 8 mil for next year. We all know the budget is going to be really restrictive due to the lack off revenue this year. The rotation after Lynn leaves will be Giolito,  Keuchal, Cease , Kopech and probably steiver or Lambert, unless they acquire someone else. They will use next year to get kopech and other up to speed again.

And you realize we need what 70% of the population immunized before these lovely restrictions that are causing things like states to lock down to go away right.  2021 will be diminished capacity or no fans to start or a limited season.  We are into 2022 before its back to normal.  I dont see JR forking up money for future dollars then in 2022.  So really 2023 is about the time he is ready to pay for a premier FA again if he does ever.  

Not a fan.  At all.   Hahn gonna Hahn.

The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres for two months of Chapman. And they'd do it again if they had the chance, because it got them a ring.

These are the type of moves you make at this point in a rebuild. I get being bummed to see Dunning go, I like him too. But this is how the sport works.

There are still plenty of arms in the stable: Kopech, Cease, Crochet, Stiever, Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, etc.

My last piece on the deal. 

The frustration for me is the Sox are now all in next year - you dont trade for a rental if you aren't. Yet after FA they're payroll will likely rank outside the top 10 in baseball. It's honestly a joke at this point. They just won't spend.

Just now, Chisoxfn said:

To your point - Lynn's contract is so good for the next year, this deal basically puts the Sox in the same spot as they were entering the day, which is having a ton of flexibility. What is to say they aren't pushing their chips forward and plan on leveraging another prospect or two, plus payroll to get another front line, yet cost controlled starter with the intent to eventually replace Lynn with one of their younger pitchers who hopefully takes a step forward (Kopech, Cease, Croquet).  Could the Sox land Darvish without giving up one of those other names, but more going down an alternative path - I don't know, but whose to say they can't go get one more front of the rotation type of guy at this point.  Or maybe they figure they are buying themselves a year while they try to lock down Gio a bit longer and better see what they have in others while maintaining massive flexibility. 

Like I said - I think I would have preferred other options, but I don't think Dunning for Lynn is a massive overpay or anything of that elk.  

I agree. It sucks to lose Dunning as I really liked him but if they were going to add someone of Lynn's caliber they needed to give someone of quality up.

Its not that easy to trade for talented players, teams dont just give them away. Lynn is cheap and good. 1 year doesnt kill his value because plenty of other teams are glad to get him for 1 year.

Could the Sox have gotten someone better than Lynn for what they gave up?

Probably not.

The Sox have drafted a bunch of pitchers, Dunning is 26. You cant keep them all.

16 minutes ago, mqr said:

Gotta say, I take umbrage with team control so often being brought up regarding an almost complete unknown. 

That's fair.  But also unknown is who is pitching for the Sox in 22 onward.  It's a win now move that I understand, but don't love.  It's less about Dunning the pitcher as it is trading for a rental.  

* my opinion might also change after we see what other moves are made. 

Edited December 8, 20205 yr by SouthWallace

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

My last piece on the deal. 

The frustration for me is the Sox are now all in next year - you dont trade for a rental if you aren't. Yet after FA they're payroll will likely rank outside the top 10 in baseball. It's honestly a joke at this point. They just won't spend.

Doesn’t Lynn actually allow them to spend?  6.8 WAR for $8M opens up tons of doors. 

3 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

That 1.5 put him in the top 20 or so guys in the game, ahead of Gerritt Cole.   He put up 6.8 WAR the year before and there’s a legit chance Dunning never sniffs 6.8 for his career 

Think about how bad Lopez has been. He has put up 6.4 WAR for his career. That's not that hard. 

Edited December 8, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

1 minute ago, southsideirish71 said:

And you realize we need what 70% of the population immunized before these lovely restrictions that are causing things like states to lock down to go away right.  2021 will be diminished capacity or no fans to start or a limited season.  We are into 2022 before its back to normal.  I dont see JR forking up money for future dollars then in 2022.  So really 2023 is about the time he is ready to pay for a premier FA again if he does ever.  

This is all the more reason they needed affordable good pitching. Plus I agree with JR that long term high money deals for pitching fail often for a number of reasons, injury being a key one. The Sox dont run on a budget where they can afford that kind of an issue. It better to take the solid prospect and trade up. This is what the minor league depth is for.

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Think about how bad Lopez has been. He has put up 6.4 WAR for his career. That's not that hard. 

I will absolutely take 1 year of 4 WAR over 10 spread over 6. 

12 minutes ago, mqr said:

I’m fairly confident 2 of Kopech, Cease, Crochet, Kelley, Dalquist, Thompson, Steiver etc will be about as good as Dunning, one of those guys likely ending up significantly better. Which is why I’m not sweating losing dunning. 

And Dunning is 2 years older than the oldest of that group. 

I know it’s dangerous to do this, but if you take away Lynn’s final start, his numbers were incredible.

2 minutes ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

And Dunning is 2 years older than the oldest of that group. 

Dunning is 16 months older than Kopech. 

Kopech is likely to be 25 before he pitches again. 

Edited December 8, 20205 yr by Jack Parkman

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Think about how bad Lopez has been. He has put up 6.4 WAR for his career. That's not that hard. 

That’s exactly my point.  Lopez has 10x the stuff Dunning has and has back to back 180+IP seasons.  
 

Dunning is 26, coming of TJ and probably has 2-3 years before he even ramps up to 180+IP.  Lot of things can happen but the smart money isn’t on Dunning being successful.  

Just now, fathom said:

I know it’s dangerous to do this, but if you take away Lynn’s final start, his numbers were incredible.

Yeah, I know this because I had him on my fantasy team and that shit-show of a start cost me like $500.  At least I didn’t completely crumble like @Look at Ray Ray Run’s team ?.

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I know it’s dangerous to do this, but if you take away Lynn’s final start, his numbers were incredible.

He also had a 4.34 xFIP.

Let’s say Dane dunning puts up 10 WAR in his 6 years, but they majority of it comes in year 4 and 5. Dane Dunning would also not have figured into the White Sox equation. 

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yeah, I know this because I had him on my fantasy team and that shit-show of a start cost me like $500.  At least I didn’t completely crumble like @Look at Ray Ray Run’s team ?.

Lol the most epic collapse to not win a league maybe in fantasy history. Biggest lead and meltdown I've ever seen. It was painful

Just now, mqr said:

Let’s say Dane dunning puts up 10 WAR in his 6 years, but they majority of it comes in year 4 and 5. Dane Dunning would also not have figured into the White Sox equation. 

10 WAR is very conservative, as long as he sticks in MLB. It could be much worse. 

4 minutes ago, mqr said:

I will absolutely take 1 year of 4 WAR over 10 spread over 6. 

Exactly.  And what the hell team is going to let some dude pitch 6 seasons of 1-2 WAR

Just now, Jerksticks said:

Exactly.  And what the hell team is going to let some dude pitch 6 seasons of 1-2 WAR

Only if Cooper finds a job elsewhere