August 22, 20214 yr This is continuing on some of the discussion that was going on in the game thread. Vaughn has hit an atrocious .043 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs and we're obviously wondering...how? How does a guy who looks so good the rest of the time be so horrible when it really matters? With RISP and 2 outs, Vaughn is striking out 28.6% of the time and walks only 4.1% of the time. This is in comparison to a 20.6% K rate and 10.6% walk rate with no runners on. It's like he's a completely different hitter up there. But wait, that's not all. Below are the pitch profiles he faces in these 2 scenarios. The first one is with RISP and 2 outs and second is with nobody on. Notice how the pie looks pretty different? That's because with no runners on, Vaughn sees some type of fastball almost 60% of the time. He only sees a slider on 23.6%. With RISP and 2 outs, he sees a slider 43.7% of the time. That's a huge difference in pitch profile. Vaughn's numbers on sliders: .136 AVG with a 35.4% K rate. Vaughn's numbers on fastballs: .344 with a 12.8% K rate. Most likely explanation: when the going gets tough, teams follow the scouting report a bit more and possibly throw pitchers who have better sliders against Vaughn. Who, despite his improvement this year vs. righties and sliders, still struggles mightily against them. Edited August 22, 20214 yr by chw42
August 22, 20214 yr Excellent analysis chw42, thank you! "Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill!" Seriously, someone needs to go get some rum and wake that guy up.
August 22, 20214 yr 57 minutes ago, chw42 said: This is continuing on some of the discussion that was going on in the game thread. Vaughn has hit an atrocious .043 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs and we're obviously wondering...how? How does a guy who looks so good the rest of the time be so horrible when it really matters? With RISP and 2 outs, Vaughn is striking out 28.6% of the time and walks only 4.1% of the time. This is in comparison to a 20.6% K rate and 10.6% walk rate with no runners on. It's like he's a completely different hitter up there. But wait, that's not all. Below are the pitch profiles he faces in these 2 scenarios. The first one is with RISP and 2 outs and second is with nobody on. Notice how the pie looks pretty different? That's because with no runners on, Vaughn sees some type of fastball almost 60% of the time. He only sees a slider on 23.6%. With RISP and 2 outs, he sees a slider 43.7% of the time. That's a huge difference in pitch profile. Vaughn's numbers on sliders: .136 AVG with a 35.4% K rate. Vaughn's numbers on fastballs: .344 with a 12.8% K rate. Most likely explanation: when the going gets tough, teams follow the scouting report a bit more and possibly throw pitchers who have better sliders against Vaughn. Who, despite his improvement this year vs. righties and sliders, still struggles mightily against them. chw42: That is how a mlb scout makes his money and here you do it for free. It's up to Vaughn now to counter the scouting reports by looking for those sliders and taking them to RF.
August 22, 20214 yr Don't forget Vaughn is a rookie with not that much time spent in the minors, he is playing all over the place and with the pressure of a pennant race plus he's not the only guy having trouble with RISP.
August 23, 20214 yr He’s spent a lot of energy learning new positions in real time. He should make gains in the off-season
August 23, 20214 yr Like all rookies, going to struggle against sliders off the corners. Im sure he has never seen these types of breaking pitches before. We saw it with Eloy, we saw it with Robert, and we still see it with Yoan (kidding, kind of) edit: great and informative opening post by the way, ill keep an eye on that for the next couple of months Edited August 23, 20214 yr by reiks12
August 23, 20214 yr The fact that people are drilling down to specific samples of situations to find warts tells me the kid has had a great 1st season, especially considering his entire minor league career consists of 245 PAs, and nothing higher than A+. A month ago he was never going to be able to hit RHP.
August 23, 20214 yr I am very confident this is one of those things that will just work itself out over time/general improvement. Hopefully sooner than later, but no reason to believe he can’t lead the team with RISP and two outs in the playoffs.
August 23, 20214 yr He’s 23 and was playing in single A last year. Dudes gunna be a fucking stud, Paul freakin Konerko recognizes game.
August 23, 20214 yr Every RH hitter has trouble hitting well placed outside sliders/sinkers/curveballs from top RH pitchers. Vaughn will make the adjustments necessary because he is and has been a great hitter. The thing is, we need him to do that in short order like we need other guys like Moncada to start clicking before the playoffs. All cylinders need to be firing in order to beat the Yankees, Tampa Bay etc. It is a lot of pressure for a rookie but what a great ride this will be for Vaughn if the Sox win the whole damn thing. Edited August 23, 20214 yr by tray
August 23, 20214 yr 12 hours ago, chw42 said: This is continuing on some of the discussion that was going on in the game thread. Vaughn has hit an atrocious .043 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs and we're obviously wondering...how? How does a guy who looks so good the rest of the time be so horrible when it really matters? With RISP and 2 outs, Vaughn is striking out 28.6% of the time and walks only 4.1% of the time. This is in comparison to a 20.6% K rate and 10.6% walk rate with no runners on. It's like he's a completely different hitter up there. But wait, that's not all. Below are the pitch profiles he faces in these 2 scenarios. The first one is with RISP and 2 outs and second is with nobody on. Notice how the pie looks pretty different? That's because with no runners on, Vaughn sees some type of fastball almost 60% of the time. He only sees a slider on 23.6%. With RISP and 2 outs, he sees a slider 43.7% of the time. That's a huge difference in pitch profile. Vaughn's numbers on sliders: .136 AVG with a 35.4% K rate. Vaughn's numbers on fastballs: .344 with a 12.8% K rate. Most likely explanation: when the going gets tough, teams follow the scouting report a bit more and possibly throw pitchers who have better sliders against Vaughn. Who, despite his improvement this year vs. righties and sliders, still struggles mightily against them. Good analysis. Vaughn still struggles against sliders on the outer half, albeit I think some of those numbers is also bad luck. Where can you find those numbers how someone does against certain pitch types?
August 23, 20214 yr 11 hours ago, tray said: chw42: That is how a mlb scout makes his money and here you do it for free. It's up to Vaughn now to counter the scouting reports by looking for those sliders and taking them to RF. Saw an article that the giants have a slider machine that throws super tough sliders to prepare for games. Maybe Sox can get one too.
August 23, 20214 yr I have zero stats to back this up, but by just watching Vaughn batting in many games, it seems as if he is either robbed by a great play or he hits a screamer right at someone very often. I hope I am right, because this kind of luck usually evens out.
August 23, 20214 yr good analysis. i've felt like when ive watched in real time that he was pressing and that appears to be the case. so far he's answered the call each time pitchers adjust to him, so hopefully that continues and he readjusts over the next 4-5 weeks in time for playoffs.
August 23, 20214 yr Author 5 hours ago, oldsox said: I have zero stats to back this up, but by just watching Vaughn batting in many games, it seems as if he is either robbed by a great play or he hits a screamer right at someone very often. I hope I am right, because this kind of luck usually evens out. His exit velocity with RISP and 2 outs is far below his exit velocity with nobody on. His EV with nobody on is in the top 90 percentile while his EV with RISP and 2 outs is probably bottom 10 percentile. His expected batting average with RISP and 2 outs is better than his actual average of .043 at .137, but it's still pretty bad. He's just not making a lot of hard contact in those situations. I understand the sample size isn't huge, like southsider2k5 mentioned, but it's gotten to the point where people are noticing. Edited August 23, 20214 yr by chw42
August 23, 20214 yr Author 6 hours ago, Dominikk85 said: Good analysis. Vaughn still struggles against sliders on the outer half, albeit I think some of those numbers is also bad luck. Where can you find those numbers how someone does against certain pitch types? Statcast search.
August 23, 20214 yr 16 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said: Don't forget Vaughn is a rookie with not that much time spent in the minors, he is playing all over the place and with the pressure of a pennant race plus he's not the only guy having trouble with RISP. Nope that is not allowed from the fanbase. He is suppose to be the MVP version of Thomas.
August 23, 20214 yr 3 hours ago, chw42 said: Statcast search. Thanks. How can you find k rate in that search?
August 23, 20214 yr Author 24 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said: Thanks. How can you find k rate in that search? Add it in the included stats. It's one of the buttons on the bottom of the search.
August 23, 20214 yr Great information. Now if you are the opposition, it also tells me to throw him more sliders period. Only show him fastballs to f with him.
August 23, 20214 yr 4 hours ago, kitekrazy said: Nope that is not allowed from the fanbase. He is suppose to be the MVP version of Thomas. It's incredible. If you compiled a list of concerns with this team if Vaughn's hitting with RISP and 2 outs even makes the list it would be last.
August 23, 20214 yr 9 minutes ago, RG23SoxFan said: It's incredible. If you compiled a list of concerns with this team if Vaughn's hitting with RISP and 2 outs even makes the list it would be last. That’s dumb to say though because it’s actually had a big impact on games, especially the last few weeks
August 23, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, fathom said: That’s dumb to say though because it’s actually had a big impact on games, especially the last few weeks I don't share your opinion, but I don't think your dumb for thinking what you do. It is a small sample size for a rookie who most likely would have started the year in the minor leagues if not for an injury to Eloy. Like many young players he is learning at the big league level and it will take time. What do you want to do? move him down in the lineup, bench him, send him to Charlotte? Sorry, I am just not worried about it. Oh well, I guess that makes me dumb lol.
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