Sunday 4pm is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers. Deadline to decline or accept is 10 days after the offer is extended. Players accepting the offer are immediately under contract for 1 year at $18.4 million. Players who decline become free agents, but if they sign with any team other than their former team, the signing team must surrender a draft pick to the former team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-2021-qualifying-offer-choices

This article predicts that Rodon will receive and reject the QO. I agree that the offer is almost certain to be extended but I lean towards thinking he'll accept it. Rejecting the offer can be perceived as Rodon believing that he won't perform well enough in 2022 to get a bigger contract than he could now.

 

Players extended qualifying offers (updated 11/7 14:00)

Reds: Castellanos

Mets: Conforto, Syndegaard

Blue Jays: Ray, Semien

Dodgers: C Seager

Rockies: Story

Astros: Correa

Braves: Freeman

This article predicts that Conforto will accept the qualifying offer this year since he had a bad year and may be better off heading into free agency in 2023. Makes sense.

Edited November 4, 20214 yr by maloney.adam

32 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Sunday 4pm is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers. Deadline to decline or accept is 10 days after the offer is extended. Players accepting the offer are immediately under contract for 1 year at $18.4 million. Players who decline become free agents, but if they sign with any team other than their former team, the signing team must surrender a draft pick to the former team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-2021-qualifying-offer-choices

This article predicts that Rodon will receive and reject the QO. I agree that the offer is almost certain to be extended but I lean towards thinking he'll accept it. Rejecting the offer can be perceived as Rodon believing that he won't perform well enough in 2022 to get a bigger contract than he could now.

Rodon's definitely rejecting so he can secure the bag this offseason, unless his shoulder is well and truly fucked and it'll show up in team medicals.

I kind of hope Rodon and Conforto accept their qualifying offers. I want Rodon back and I don’t want to spend the off-season talking about Conforto coming to the White Sox only for us to be beaten out by another team who’s willing to spend more money. 

Bold predictions: if Boras’s side rejects the Qualifying Offer, Rodon makes less than $18 million on the season.

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Bold predictions: if Boras’s side rejects the Qualifying Offer, Rodon makes less than $18 million on the season.

well sure, he could sign 4/60 (15 mil) nd that would be good for him

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

well sure, he could sign 4/60 (15 mil) nd that would be good for him

Do you think he is getting a deal like that with a QO attached? I would guess almost a zero chance of that. I’m struggling to remember someone signing a deal about that level with a QO attached. Last one I can find was AJ Pollock.

32 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Do you think he is getting a deal like that with a QO attached? I would guess almost a zero chance of that. I’m struggling to remember someone signing a deal about that level with a QO attached. Last one I can find was AJ Pollock.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone gambles on his 2021 performance/health.  Did Eovaldi have a QO attached? 

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I wouldn't be surprised if someone gambles on his 2021 performance/health.  Did Eovaldi have a QO attached? 

Yes, but he didn't change teams. Do you think the White Sox are giving him that kind of money?

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, but he didn't change teams. Do you think the White Sox are giving him that kind of money?

I don't know.  I would not be for or against that contract for Rodon.  I'd be willing to take some risk on him

I can’t see giving Rodon more than a two-year deal, even if you like him. I could imagine some team caves and goes three years to be the winner. QO will def drive down the AAV if he goes elsewhere

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

I can’t see giving Rodon more than a two-year deal, even if you like him. I could imagine some team caves and goes three years to be the winner. QO will def drive down the AAV if he goes elsewhere

That's how I would think, but who knows with pitching.

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's how I would think, but who knows with pitching.

True

I can’t see Rodon passing on the QO if he gets extended one.

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can’t see Rodon passing on the QO if he gets extended one.

Agreed....if he bets on himself and shows he can stay healthy, he could get one hell of a contract next offseason....and that QO is some nice $$.

But if Rodon can get 3/$45-50...that's still going to be really hard to turn down, too.

But just guaranteeing that $18.4 million for one season would completely set the family for life...right now, including the original signing bonus, his career earnings are:

$19,311,276

 

So he would almost double his career earnings with the QO acceptance, putting him at at almost $38 million for 11.9 (plus 2022's numbers) fWAR...

But if Rodon can get 3/$45-50...that's still going to be really hard to turn down, too.

But just guaranteeing that $18.4 million for one season would completely set the family for life...right now, including the original signing bonus, his career earnings are:

$19,311,276

 

So he would almost double his career earnings with the QO acceptance, putting him at at almost $38 million for 11.9 (plus 2022's numbers) fWAR...

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But if Rodon can get 3/$45-50...that's still going to be really hard to turn down, too.

But just guaranteeing that $18.4 million for one season would completely set the family for life...right now, including the original signing bonus, his career earnings are:

$19,311,276

 

So he would almost double his career earnings with the QO acceptance, putting him at at almost $38 million for 11.9 (plus 2022's numbers) fWAR...

Are you trying to convince Hard Carl to take the QO by posting it twice??

Just now, wegner said:

Are you trying to convince Hard Carl to take the QO by posting it twice??

No, since nearly every US site is being blocked these days in China...Yahoo.com just this week, I have to keep flipping back and forth between VPN and regular internet and sometimes it just gets "stuck" or frozen because our school WiFi sucks.

SoxTalk admins will be happy to know that their website hasn't been targeted for a ban, YET.

Just now, caulfield12 said:

No, since nearly every US site is being blocked these days in China...Yahoo.com just this week, I have to keep flipping back and forth between VPN and regular internet and sometimes it just gets "stuck" or frozen because our school WiFi sucks.

SoxTalk admins will be happy to know that their website hasn't been targeted for a ban, YET.

The operative word.

Crazy stuff.

Conforto hit free agency one year too late, unfortunately; after posting a spectacular 154 OPS+ in the shortened 2020, he managed only a league-average 101 OPS+ in '21, and ask any Mets fan, it sure felt like less than “league average.” The ongoing uncertainty in the Mets' front office isn’t helping matters, though they would reportedly extend him an offer anyway,understandable given his track record of success. But would he accept? The $18.4 million qualifying offer would be a sizable raise over the $12.3 million he made this year, and he'd be stepping into an extremely uncertain market given the year he just had. At 29, he might well prefer to head into free agency next year coming off a better season than the mediocre one he just completed.

Prediction: Receives offer, accepts it

 

Rodón’s path has been wild. A year ago, the oft-injured lefty was non-tendered by the White Sox, who months later signed him to a mere one-year, $3 million deal without a promise of a rotation spot. They were rewarded with a stunning season, as Rodón threw a no-hitter, made the All-Star team and will probably get some Cy Young votes. The problem, given his history, is that he had repeated issues with shoulder soreness down the stretch; he pitched just 28 innings in the final two months. This is a tricky one, but because Rodón was so good this year (and managed to hit 99.4 mph in his brief ALDS appearance) that we think he’ll try his luck on the market.

Prediction: Receives offer, declines it

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-the-2021-qualifying-offer-choices?partnerId=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20211104-496309-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=nCdHRqxaITklTvrd%2Fd1gnoo2TStugw9Uj3%2FJYC8%2B5FW%2F7j%2B0BVgaVzrGxBQpcgnT&bt_ts=1636032644134

 

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can’t see Rodon passing on the QO if he gets extended one.

It’s Boras, so even though I fully get the logic of accepting it, I wouldn’t guess what they will do.

Rodon is an interesting case.  I wonder what the number is/would be for Rodon/Boras to "hope" for as a justification to turn down a QO?  If the QO is $18 million...would they be satisfied/justified in turning one down for a 2 year $40 million deal?  Or would they view that as a lost opportunity to cash in by taking the QO and earning a much larger contract than $40 million over 2.  Lots of unknowns in regards to Rodon and his health. 

To me, the answer is simple. Rodon gets a QO if his late season injury was just fatigue. If it was a legit shoulder concern, thanks for 2021 you were outstanding, but if you want to come back, getting really rich will require hitting on incentives.

https://nypost.com/2021/11/06/mets-give-qualifying-offer-to-michael-conforto-noah-syndergaard/
Conforto and Syndegaard offered, Post seems mostly concerned about Nationals and Phillies…