Rick Hahn & The Art of Resource Allocation

[SpringfieldFan]

So much of this  the Kimbrel trade. Lots of money for (now) little projected return weights the resource allocation numbers. That’s half of it. They also lost Madrigal, who could potentially provide wins at a negligible cost. Now they can’t get him back and Kimbrel is damaged goods on the market. Horrible.

 Just spitball wishing, but I would dream they could find a team that would really like an elite CLOSER and offer them a 3 week try before you buy on Kimbrel and if he returns back to being a effective in the closer role they finalize and the other team buys out the contract. Just dreaming…

[poppysox]

10 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

So much of this  the Kimbrel trade. Lots of money for (now) little projected return weights the resource allocation numbers. That’s half of it. They also lost Madrigal, who could potentially provide wins at a negligible cost. Now they can’t get him back and Kimbrel is damaged goods on the market. Horrible.

 Just spitball wishing, but I would dream they could find a team that would really like an elite CLOSER and offer them a 3 week try before you buy on Kimbrel and if he returns back to being a effective in the closer role they finalize and the other team buys out the contract. Just dreaming…

More like hallucinating.😉

[FoxForce2]

36 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes they are ready to get a rental. If they can dump the Kimbrel salary and even eat $4-5M of it that frees up money for Manaea's $9.75M. Lynn was a rental in the window. This is exactly what I think they are trying to do. They need to stop pussy footing around and just rid themselves of Kimbrel as long as it frees up his money. Refusing his option would've accomplished that already.

I'm pretty much onboard with well, what the board thinks of the Kimbrel move. We didn't need another closer last year, we needed a 6th-7th-8th inning type of reliever. Picking up his option and painting the team into a corner was boneheaded and the boneheadedness has compounded into a slow market on him. From an outsiders POV, I have my doubts the Sox get anything approaching the value of his contract (+ the loss of prospects) in the near term.

I get the fact that Kimbrel was the hottest pitcher in the NL at the time of last year's trade, but considering his overall tenure with the Cubs, was he really more than a flavor of the month? Hindsight is almost always 20-20, but even at the time there were real reservations regarding his value and the fit into what the Sox were doing. Both the Kimbrel and Cesar trades have had unforeseen negative effects over time. Mostly unforeseen that is.
As for moving him - face has been lost, it's time to live with it and get him gone..

Edited March 27, 2022 by FoxForce2

[Bob Sacamano]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, except for Samardzija/Semien & Bassitt.

I can see Manaea, but Montas is a bridge too far.  Just not sure why the A’s are bothering to hold onto those two, Laureano, etc.  Guess they believe they’ll get even more at the TDL with a full-scale bidding war developing.

Suspended the first 28 games I think. I also ready this will cause the team to gain an extra of year control (4 years instead of 3).

[FoxForce2]

7 minutes ago, poppysox said:

More like hallucinating.😉

Timothy Leary's dead.

[Sarava]

23 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There has been a lot of discussion on Soxtalk and elsewhere within the broader White Sox community about the effectiveness of our offseason.  Many fans are upset with the moves made so far, while others point to a strong core and limited places to supplement.  As such, I wanted to put pen to paper and take an objective look at what Rick Hahn has accomplished this offseason and see if there was potentially a better path in terms of resource allocation.

To start, let’s level where the team stands today.  Fangraphs’ Depth Charts has the Sox projected for 47.1 fWAR this year, which ranks 5th overall in baseball.  Here is the break-out by area along with our corresponding payroll allocation:

• Lineup: 25.2 | $80.0M | $3.2M/win
• Bench: 1.8 | $8.9M | $4.9M/win
• Rotation: 14.9 | $46.2M | $3.1M/win
• Bullpen: 5.3 | $53.1M | $10.M/win
• Total: 47.1 | $188.2M | $4.0M/win

Now, what’s fascinating is that Hahn has committed $34M of this year’s payroll to relievers this offseason in Kimbrel, Graveman, Kelly, & Velasquez.  Those four guys are projected for 1.5 wins total over 233 innings.  That’s an effective cost of $22.7M per win.  For reference, Fangraphs typically values 1 fWAR at being worth ~$8M.  While I don’t believe that fWAR is the end-all-be-all when it comes to evaluating relievers, I think it’s very clear that paying anywhere near $22.3M per incremental win is an atrocious use of limited resources.

So you may be asking where else should we have invested?  The easy answer is 2B and the obvious solution there would have been Eduardo Escobar.  Right now, our group of 2B are projected for 1.6 fWAR this year.  For an additional $6M in payroll for 2022 vs. what we’re paying Harrison, we could have improved our 2B projections by 1.1 wins.  That’s at an effective cost of $5.5M per win.  And yes, a two year commitment would be required, but even if you got 0 fWAR out of EE in 2023 you’d be paying $13.2M, which is substantially better than return on our bullpen investment.  Signing Eduardo Escobar should have been an absolute no brainer for us even with the 2023 requirement.

The other obvious spot is RF.  Right now Fangraphs projects us to get 1.6 fWAR out of the position, tied for lowest on the team with 2B.  Now, this one comes down to what kind of production you think Michael Conforto will provide next year.  If you go with Fangraphs’ projections of him being a 2.2 win player across 530 PAs, his addition would be worth a single win over our Frankenstein RF group is expected to provide.  At an expected salary of ~$20M, that’s not a great way to allocate funds in isolation.  But if you believe he’s closer to the 2017 to 2020 guy, then we’re talking 2+ incremental wins out of RF at a cost of $10M per win or less.  And while harder to value, you also improve your depth significantly by allowing Sheets to move to an insurance role offering protection at multiple spots.

Ultimately, if you take the optimistic view on Conforto, signing both him and Escobar at a combined $25M (net of Harrison - one rookie contract) provides roughly three incremental wins on the positional side of things.  To fund this, you don’t pick up Kimbrel’s option and you don’t sign Kelly, which saves ~$21M (after buy-out + one rookie contract) but results in a loss of 0.9 fWAR.  Yes, you are a little short, but to cover that gap you don’t extend Leury and instead hand the utility role to Romy Gonzalez, who is projected to provide very similar production next year.  Overall, you end up with a team projected to win 2 more games and with less major question marks, but at the expend of less bullpen depth.  That’s a trade-off worth making IMO and also makes it easier to trade Sheets / Cespedes / Popeye to address pitching needs at the deadline.

Look, my hypothetical “sign Conforto & Escobar” plan is just one way to skin a cat.  We could have made a harder effort for Ray or Gausman or even brought back Rodon and gone cheaper at 2B or RF.  But the key point here is paying  top dollar for relievers who will be pitching medium and low leverage innings is a horrible use of resources.  Don’t get me wrong, we definitely needed legit bullpen help and I’m ok spending for premium talent, but there has to be a limit and 28% of total team payroll is way too much when other obvious needs exist.  Rick still has a chance to undo some of the damage by trading Kimbrel and using those resources toward Conforto or a SP, but he’s quickly running out of time.  When opening day hits, it will be very interesting to see if that win projection remains at 47.1 or if Hahn has pulled off some minute moves that better utilize our limited resources.

Good post.

If you want to compare RF - Castellanos had 3.2 WAR last year (despite his defensive shortcomings), and could of been had for the same $20 mil per. And his WAR could easily go up if he continues to improve on defense.

For 2B - I still go back to Marcus Semien. IMO there was no player available this off-season that could of impacted the Sox in a positive way like Semien would of. I  wouldn't assume the Sox would of had to of paid him the same $175 mil that Texas gave him. Texas was a 102 loss team and they have that horrid Texas heat in the summer. It's probably a team that has to massively overpay a guy to get him down there. And they did that. If the Sox had a solid offer in the $120 mil range, I'm not so sure he might not of taken that.  Who knows.

For relievers - I think just about all of us agree they way overspent on relievers. Even if you get the expected performance out of these guys - it still wasn't money spent wisely. And unfortunately - relievers are about as volatile as any position on the field. So they're not likely to get the performance they're paying for out of all of them. It's just a poor use of resources.

It is true the Sox have few holes. It's just baffling when you go out of your way to not fill them. Why not put your best foot forward in this short championship window?

[SpringfieldFan]

12 minutes ago, Sarava said:

It is true the Sox have few holes. It's just baffling when you go out of your way to not fill them. Why not put your best foot forward in this short championship window?

Apparently they don’t need to because they can just use their Swiss Army knife (Leury) for their heavy duty everyday needs.

[FoxForce2]

7 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Apparently they don’t need to because they can just use their Swiss Army knife (Leury) for their heavy duty everyday needs.

Between Keuchel and Kimbrel - the Sox have a $34M pie smacking them in the face every morning they walk into the kitchen. I can only shake my head wondering at how many alternate ways there could be to slice and parse that pie. Sigh.
With this pie in mid air, they almost have to go the Leury route.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Good post.

If you want to compare RF - Castellanos had 3.2 WAR last year (despite his defensive shortcomings), and could of been had for the same $20 mil per. And his WAR could easily go up if he continues to improve on defense.

For 2B - I still go back to Marcus Semien. IMO there was no player available this off-season that could of impacted the Sox in a positive way like Semien would of. I  wouldn't assume the Sox would of had to of paid him the same $175 mil that Texas gave him. Texas was a 102 loss team and they have that horrid Texas heat in the summer. It's probably a team that has to massively overpay a guy to get him down there. And they did that. If the Sox had a solid offer in the $120 mil range, I'm not so sure he might not of taken that.  Who knows.

For relievers - I think just about all of us agree they way overspent on relievers. Even if you get the expected performance out of these guys - it still wasn't money spent wisely. And unfortunately - relievers are about as volatile as any position on the field. So they're not likely to get the performance they're paying for out of all of them. It's just a poor use of resources.

It is true the Sox have few holes. It's just baffling when you go out of your way to not fill them. Why not put your best foot forward in this short championship window?

Beyond the reliever issue (which could be partially solved via a Kimbrel trade), my biggest beef is how they’ve gone about addressing 2B.  Like what is the plan there?  Out of all the options in free agency and trade, how in the world did they settle on Josh “Big Energy” Harrison?  I can somewhat understand (and I must stress somewhat) being hesitant to commit big dollars in RF, especially for a RH hitter, but who are you worried about blocking at 2B if you’re Rick Hahn?  Romy Gonzalez?  Jose Rodriguez?  Yogurt Sanchez?  Those three all project as RH utility guys and you showed little confidence in them by extending Leury for the next three years.

Marcus Semien would have been the most impactful addition, but I get not wanting to commit seven years and $175M to him.  If he were willing to take less to play for a contender, then I would have been all over that.  Still, a guy like Eduardo Escobar was right there for the taking at a very reasonable cost.  No idea why they didn’t pursue him harder.  And Brad Miller would have at least addressed our weakness against RHP if you were willing to give him a second year.  Again, not sure who we’re blocking at 2B.

All that being said, from my perspective, either the Sox misread the free agent market completely or have struggled  to find trade partners due to their weak farm system.  Part of me believes the Sox might feel their system has a dozen or so prospects who could really ascend next year and make it easier to fill needs at the deadline.  And perhaps that ends up being the right call, but it’s way too risky to head into the regular season with so many holes unaddressed and it’s inexcusable to have a farm system being so week you’re incapable of acquiring a solid 2B.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Apparently they don’t need to because they can just use their Swiss Army knife (Leury) for their heavy duty everyday needs.

Swiss Army Knive's would be very useful Post-Apocalypse but I agree the White Sox are not at the Post-Apocalypse stage yet.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

25 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Beyond the reliever issue (which could be partially solved via a Kimbrel trade), my biggest beef is how they’ve gone about addressing 2B.  Like what is the plan there?  Out of all the options in free agency and trade, how in the world did they settle on Josh “Big Energy” Harrison?  I can somewhat understand (and I must stress somewhat) being hesitant to commit big dollars in RF, especially for a RH hitter, but who are you worried about blocking at 2B if you’re Rick Hahn?  Romy Gonzalez?  Jose Rodriguez?  Yogurt Sanchez?  Those three all project as RH utility guys and you showed little confidence in them by extending Leury for the next three years.

Marcus Semien would have been the most impactful addition, but I get not wanting to commit seven years and $175M to him.  If he were willing to take less to play for a contender, then I would have been all over that.  Still, a guy like Eduardo Escobar was right there for the taking at a very reasonable cost.  No idea why they didn’t pursue him harder.  And Brad Miller would have at least addressed our weakness against RHP if you were willing to give him a second year.  Again, not sure who we’re blocking at 2B.

All that being said, from my perspective, either the Sox misread the free agent market completely or have struggled  to find trade partners due to their weak farm system.  Part of me believes the Sox might feel their system has a dozen or so prospects who could really ascend next year and make it easier to fill needs at the deadline.  And perhaps that ends up being the right call, but it’s way too risky to head into the regular season with so many holes unaddressed and it’s inexcusable to have a farm system being so week you’re incapable of acquiring a solid 2B.

Is Yolbert Sanchez even in camp ? He's supposed to be a very good defender and if his hitting continues like it did in Birmingham and the AZ Fall League his upside could be a solid regular at 2nd base very soon. Romy is nothing to sneeze at either with his power but I can't say how valuable his 2nd base defense would be. We've seen multiple guys struggle defensibly at 2nd base between Madrigal and Moncada.

[Sarava]

And I'll add. This Kimbrel debacle.... unless they solve it soon, probably should be viewed as a firable offense from Rick Hahn. While I hated that trade from the moment it happened, I'm not getting in to that now. What was done was done.

But to pick up his option. When the Sox did pick up the option - I was fine with it, because I assumed they already had a trade worked out. There was plenty of time to of gauged the market or worked out a trade by the time they had to decide on the option.

If it's true that nobody wants to touch Kimbrel at $16 mil, then why not just cut bait and not pickup the option?  Why are they doubling down on the mistake from last summer, which in turn causes holes in this team to be left unfilled? Because we all know Reinsdorf will only spend so much money.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Sarava

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Sarava said:

Good post.

If you want to compare RF - Castellanos had 3.2 WAR last year (despite his defensive shortcomings), and could of been had for the same $20 mil per. And his WAR could easily go up if he continues to improve on defense.

For 2B - I still go back to Marcus Semien. IMO there was no player available this off-season that could of impacted the Sox in a positive way like Semien would of. I  wouldn't assume the Sox would of had to of paid him the same $175 mil that Texas gave him. Texas was a 102 loss team and they have that horrid Texas heat in the summer. It's probably a team that has to massively overpay a guy to get him down there. And they did that. If the Sox had a solid offer in the $120 mil range, I'm not so sure he might not of taken that.  Who knows.

For relievers - I think just about all of us agree they way overspent on relievers. Even if you get the expected performance out of these guys - it still wasn't money spent wisely. And unfortunately - relievers are about as volatile as any position on the field. So they're not likely to get the performance they're paying for out of all of them. It's just a poor use of resources.

It is true the Sox have few holes. It's just baffling when you go out of your way to not fill them. Why not put your best foot forward in this short championship window?

$175 vs. $120?   Better make it $150-160, and we saw how well that worked with Machado.   Plus, you’re assuming that Semien would actually want to return to the organization that didn’t 100% believe in him and/or feel his defense would ever be good enough for a full-time starting role.  
 

The White Sox … sailed their way into October last year, winning the Central by 13 games, and they’re projected to be the class of the division again in 2022. It’s not hard to see why, anyway; few teams can match the star power of a group with Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, Lance Lynn, Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez, Liam Hendriks, Jose Abreu, Yoán Moncada, Craig Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal and the best reliever you don’t know, Aaron Bummer. They could have done little else besides bring last year’s team back and they’d still be very good.

Of course, that mostly is what they’ve done, aside from welcome but relatively minor moves for Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman. The White Sox don’t really have a great answer at second base or right field, and the bottom third of the lineup feels short a bat, particularly one who hits lefty. This is a really very good team, especially on the mound. It just feels like they’re one step away from being a great team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-2022-team-tiers?partnerId=zh-20220327-509597-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20220327-509597-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=lY%2Bc3%2F%2FT4A3LDbTKypSjBztJaFLdYAwOlk8hMOr%2Bfoj3EC6hjKE%2FYThH0o9r2BFm&bt_ts=1648390914404

And yes, Tyler Glasnow is hurt, and Shane Baz is hurt, and Nick Anderson is hurt, and Luis Patiño may be hurt, and Corey Kluber has a recent track record of being hurt. But it’s sort of their whole deal to do an excellent job preventing runs while using 38 different pitchers, at least a dozen of whom you’ve never heard of. Throwing a dart at the board: We'll ask you to remember Colin Poche.

Rays’ analysis made me laugh.

And this…”avoid the catastrophe that saw late-season starts going to Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez.”

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by caulfield12

[Backwash07]

If Kimbrel can’t be traded for anything to help us in 2022, are we better off trying to fix the bullpen expenditure issue by trading Liam Hendricks and give Kimbrel the closer role he apparently desires even if not deserved?  I don’t know what Hendricks trade value would be but it’s clearly higher than Kimbrel. 

[caulfield12]

35 minutes ago, Backwash07 said:

If Kimbrel can’t be traded for anything to help us in 2022, are we better off trying to fix the bullpen expenditure issue by trading Liam Hendricks and give Kimbrel the closer role he apparently desires even if not deserved?  I don’t know what Hendricks trade value would be but it’s clearly higher than Kimbrel. 

No, no, no….just making a third mistake, first the trade, then the option.  Actually we’re on error #4 if you include Harrison because we no longer have Madrigal.  Or #5 if you include Cesar.  All somehow related to one original move.  Granted, Madrigal was already out for the year.

Edited March 27, 2022 by caulfield12

[Two-Gun Pete]

17 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

1. The Durham & Koch trades took place 20+ years ago.  I’m not sure those are very relevant, especially when Hahn was either not in the organization or his first year as assistant GM.

2. The Shark trade sucks simply because they missed on their self evaluation of Semien.  I don’t really care about Bassitt being included because he was an older C prospect at the time and wasn’t someone you lose sleep over trading.  The other two guys were irrelevant.

3. the Swisher trade?

# 1 & 3. The fact that Oakland have been beating the everloving shit of the SOX FO for over 20 years is not a reason for celebration. It merely shows that KW/RH vs Oakland is like you or me vs Usain Bolt in the 200 meter.

Also, thank you for reminding me of how this FO both bought high and sold low on Swisher. It really inspires confidence in those bums.

#2. And this is important:

Posters routinely gloss over the overall shittiness of a trade. The Samardzija trade was a fireable offense FIRSTLY because it never should have happened in the first place. That was a team that came off a 73 win season. And NO series of moves was going to add 25+ wins to their record.

So even BEFORE you consider cost, the Samardzjia rapeage, like the Shields and Kimbrel trades, should have been aborted at conception. None of them would have gotten the Sox over the top.  So all of them were stupid ideas in the first place.

Now, adding in that they couldn't self-scout Semien or Bassitt, as well as bother to do, like, ANYTHING to improve Semien's defense, just shows how lazy and dumb they were and are.

 

Insofar as a theoretical or Manea trade, I have full confidence in Oakland to once again embarrass, humiliate, and crush RH/KW in trade negotiarion. I also have confidence that once Montas or Manea leave Oakland, that they'd regress to being "just guys" once here.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete