Kimbrel traded for AJ Pollock

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair on the median v mean, but calling my post "misleading" is kinda BS. It is factual that Pollock has only averaged 107 games played over the past 5 years. And sure, he "possibly" could get healthier as he ages, but I doubt it.

 

And yes, while Suzuki is a gamble, so too is Pollock. For a mere $2MM more, I'll gamble on the guy whose bat profiles like Matsui [look it up], and who's won 5 Gold Gloves in Japan. If healthy, I think we can agree that defense would translate pretty easily from NPB to here. That alone would make him worth ~1.5 fWAR. If he approximates his ZIPs projections, he's a star.

And comparing the best position player to come over since Ichiro to Fukudome is silly. Suzuki is an absolute star, and 27; Fukudome was "good, but not a star," 30 years old, and pre-injured. The two are nothing alike.

Suzuki cost a lot more than 2MM more. He actually costs 70 million dollars more. 

I'm not sure what I need to look up. Hideki Matsui's career high OPS+ was 137. AJ Pollock's OPS+ in 2021 was 137.

Why is it silly? Fukudome's OPS at 26 years old in Japan was 1005, Suzuki's OPS at 26 in Japan was 1069. It's not silly to compare their production. As I noted, Suzuki did it a little earlier than Kosuke, but there hype and fanfare is INCREDIBLY similar at the time of signing. 

EDIT: Koskue OPS at 25 - 943. Suzuki OPS at 25 - 953. To say those guys aren't similar production wise in Japan is honestly just nonsense. People have a way of glowing up the most recent thing. Suzuki might be great, but his contract says the league values him about the same as they valued Kosuke when he came over.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Quin]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I will give the guy credit.  He kept his mouth shut and said all of the right things when he had to.

Dude's a professional.

[mqr]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I will give the guy credit.  He kept his mouth shut and said all of the right things when he had to.

makes me sad it didn't work out, seems like a great dude

[Chicago White Sox]

42 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Burger's value isn't very high. Especially to a team like Oakland, since Burger is pretty much ML ready when they're years away from competing. 

If Burger were to put up a 2 win season for OAK this year like Zips projects, I’d wager he’d have much more value than one year of Manaea.  Whether OAK wants to take that gamble or even believes in his talent remains to be seen, but people are really sleeping on Jake IMO.

[mqr]

7 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

. If healthy, I think we can agree that defense would translate pretty easily from NPB to here. That alone would make him worth ~1.5 fWAR.

I'm not sure any of us knows what "Gold Glove Defense" in Japan translates to in MLB terms. 

Kinda like how Gold Glove college second basemen translated to pretty bad second basement actually.

Edited April 1, 2022 by mqr

[Capn12]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Bull. Suzuki is putting up Matsui numbers, at 27 years old. He also comes with 5 gold gloves.

 

Comparing him to Fukudome is a stretch.

Batting average    .287
Hits    1,951
Home runs    285
Runs batted in    1,075
Stolen bases    76

9 years

 

Batting average    .315
Hits    937
Home runs    182
Runs batted in    562
Runs    548
Stolen bases    82

6 years

 

 

So you're telling me that Suzuki is far and away better than Fukudome was, while in Japan? Because the numbers say differently...

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Suzuki cost a lot more than 2MM more. He actually costs 70 million dollars more. 

 I'm not sure what I need to look up. Hideki Matsui's career high OPS+ was 137. AJ Pollock's OPS+ in 2021 was 137.

Suzuki vs Matsui

Age 26 for Suzuki: .317/.433/.639/1.072

Age 26 for Matsui: .316/.438/.654/1.092

[ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack]

14 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Supply and demand. Oakland pretty much holds the last 2 starting pitchers you can get. We really should have moved on Bassitt. 

Manaea is an UFA after this season.  Rental vs. a "Sign & Trade" would be a different price tag.

[FoxForce2]

8 minutes ago, mqr said:

I'm not sure any of us knows what "Gold Glove Defense" in Japan translates to in MLB terms. 

You're not wrong. Having lived in Japan for some 5 years and taken in several games as well as having made personal contact with many Japanese fans, I can say that the Japanese players are very well grounded in game-play fundamentals. Whether or not they pan out as ML batters, almost all the Nippon guys play their field position very well when coming over to the States.

p.s Played against the Japanese teams in fast pitch softball - they field well at that level too. LOL

Edited April 1, 2022 by FoxForce2

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Suzuki vs Matsui

Age 26 for Suzuki: .317/.433/.639/1.072

Age 26 for Matsui: .316/.438/.654/1.092

Kosuke Fukodome

Age 26: 313/401/604

Edit: And again, the best year of Matsui's career in the MLB = AJ Pollock production from 2021.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kosuke Fukodome

Age 26: 313/401/604

White Sox Great Kosuke Fukodome

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

Batting average    .287
Hits    1,951
Home runs    285
Runs batted in    1,075
Stolen bases    76

9 years

Batting average    .315
Hits    937
Home runs    182
Runs batted in    562
Runs    548
Stolen bases    82

6 years

So you're telling me that Suzuki is far and away better than Fukudome was, while in Japan? Because the numbers say differently...

Yes, ~30 points on BA is a huge difference between the two. [As an aside, why are you citing BA? It seems "so 1985."]

Suzuki is also 27, healthy, and a 5 time Gold Glover.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It’s $15 million guaranteed with a player option for the next $5.

Either way there is no way he doesn’t 1/$15M in free agency.  Realistically he gets something similar to Canha in the realm of 2/$26M.  Either way I see zero argument for him being overpaid based on expected performance for the 2022 season.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kosuke Fukodome

Age 26: 313/401/604

And how old was Fukudome when he came over? And was he healthy?

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 minutes ago, mqr said:

I'm not sure any of us knows what "Gold Glove Defense" in Japan translates to in MLB terms. 

 Kinda like how Gold Glove college second basemen translated to pretty bad second basement actually.

Fair question. But NPB > NCAA in terms of caliber of play. And, NPB players tend to be fairly well-trained at the basics of defending.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If Burger were to put up a 2 win season for OAK this year like Zips projects, I’d wager he’d have much more value than one year of Manaea.  Whether OAK wants to take that gamble or even believes in his talent remains to be seen, but people are really sleeping on Jake IMO.

We really do not want to trade Burger and Sheets right now. Those guys have shown enough that THEY can be the cheap cost controlled average regulars that has so bedviled this org the past 20 years. Trading them for short term vets would be short sighted. 

I'm fine rolling with what we got now. We just added 2.5 WAR today net and probably .5 the other day adding the depth OF from the Phillies. This is a 92-95 win team on paper. Go get it done and keep your powder dry for now.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, ~30 points on BA is a huge difference between the two. [As an aside, why are you citing BA? It seems "so 1985.]

Suzuki is also 27, healthy, and a 5 time Gold Glover.

Interesting, Kosuke also a 5 time gold glover in Japan. Honestly, I didn't realize how similar their production was at the same age until you mentioned how different they were. You gotta admit that's pretty funny.

[mqr]

Dayan Viciedo had an OPS over 900 in Japan in 2018.

We can throw out all the numbers we want, they don't mean anything. 

[Capn12]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes, ~30 points on BA is a huge difference between the two. [As an aside, why are you citing BA? It seems "so 1985.]

Suzuki is also 27, healthy, and a 5 time Gold Glover.

First stats I found, not really worried about comparing BA, but as you say, it is 'so 1985', why would it matter what the difference is between the 2?

Also, signing an unknown commodity for 4-5 years, at a position that we were supposedly eyeing for those we've scouted/signed already, seems odd. Pollock is the ideal filler for RF, considering the organization's plans.

For every Matsui, there are easily 3-4 Fokudome that come over to play in the majors, hyped up, and are not what folks seem to think they'll be.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Fair question. But NPB > NCAA in terms of caliber of play. And, NPB players tend to be fairly well-trained at the basics of defending.

 

I don't know I think most Japanese players that come over, non Shohei/Ichiro division are not ready for the speed of the game defensively.

[mqr]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

I don't know I think most Japanese players that come over, non Shohei/Ichiro division are not ready for the speed of the game defensively.

All I'm getting at is that the only information I know from "5 time gold glover in Japan" is that he was the best RF in Japan for a number of years. I have zero clue how good the second best RF in Japan is. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

And how old was Fukudome when he came over? And was he healthy?

I'm not going to derail this any further, but the market at that time gave Kosuke 4 years at 48 million. That was in 2008. Average salaries are up roughly 50% since 2008. Which would Kosuke at about 4 years 72 million today; 18 million per.

Seiya Suzuki is younger so he got an extra year, and he got 5 years 85 million; 17 million per.

It would seem the leauge talent evaluators around baseball viewed Kosuke and Seiya as near identical players talent and projection wise. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

All I'm getting at is that the only information I know from "5 time gold glover in Japan" is that he was the best RF in Japan for a number of years. I have zero clue how good the second best RF in Japan is. 

I wanted to sign him but I think he'll be an average OF in MLB.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Capn12 said:

First stats I found, not really worried about comparing BA, but as you say, it is 'so 1985', why would it matter what the difference is between the 2?

Also, signing an unknown commodity for 4-5 years, at a position that we were supposedly eyeing for those we've scouted/signed already, seems odd. Pollock is the ideal filler for RF, considering the organization's plans.

 For every Matsui, there are easily 3-4 Fokudome that come over to play in the majors, hyped up, and are not what folks seem to think they'll be.

 

I mean, 30 points difference in BA isn't all that similar over a career.

And yes, there would be a risk in signing Suzuki, but who's scouting department do you trust more, the scrubs or this one?

 

I'd still gamble on Suzuki over Pollock for RF.

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I hate to break it to you but if Sheets is the top offer, they don't have many offers.

What kind of return do you anticipate Manaea commanding?