What The Actual F# Is Wrong With This Team?

[southsider2k5]

 

[Tnetennba]

Bump

Maybe these guys just aren’t as good as everyone thought?

And hiring a drunken corpse washed up has-been was a stupid as many of us feared and predicted?

And doing absolutely nothing of note in the off-season and fielding a worse team than last year was actually a bad idea?

Maybe, just maybe, this whole organization is really bad at this?

[Snopek]

7 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Bump

Maybe these guys just aren’t as good as everyone thought?

And hiring a drunken corpse washed up has-been was a stupid as many of us feared and predicted?

And doing absolutely nothing of note in the off-season and fielding a worse team than last year was actually a bad idea?

Maybe, just maybe, this whole organization is really bad at this?

Counterpoint: Once the weather warms, and we have zero injuries, and the other teams stop being good, and we all wish upon a star, the league is in trouble.

[Highland]

22 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Bump

Maybe these guys just aren’t as good as everyone thought?

And hiring a drunken corpse washed up has-been was a stupid as many of us feared and predicted?

And doing absolutely nothing of note in the off-season and fielding a worse team than last year was actually a bad idea?

Maybe, just maybe, this whole organization is really bad at this?

I don't think there is any maybe to it.

[SonofaRoache]

9 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Counterpoint: Once the weather warms, and we have zero injuries, and the other teams stop being good, and we all wish upon a star, the league is in trouble.

Yeah the weather is one of the worst excuses I hear. If we can't play in Spring type weather then we aren't winning a WS with this group. 

[PorkChopExpress]

3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Yeah the weather is one of the worst excuses I hear. If we can't play in Spring type weather then we aren't winning a WS with this group. 

Especially since the weather starts to get bad again around September-October.  

[JoeC]

Seems like folks missed the sarcasm with the "we all wish upon a star" bit.

[he gone.]

Probably a shit storm combo of the below. Ask a different people and they'll assign a different weight to each category

 

1 - the obvious and simple answer is injuries. it's not the full answer, but I doubt we'd be having the conversation about the real underlying issues if we had a healthy Lynn, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Moncada, etc. etc. 

2 - hustle/accountability. I remember a month ago when Anderson didn't run out a ball to first base in a 1 run game in the 9th. Yesterday obviously is another example w/ McGuire jogging home. Or Mendick running there... or Boston sending Mendick? Or Boston sending Mendick, but not going over the consequences. Or TLR not setting a fire? Or maybe he is behind the scenes. But to me, there's some sort of cloud here. Whether that's batting approach, fielding approach, hustling, etc. And when it goes wrong? lack of accountability

3 - which then leads into my next one which may fit in #2 ... leadership. We don't see what goes on behind doors so I'm not going to assume, but at least whats going on outside closed door is uninspiring to say the least. I don't necessarily need a rah rah moment (we had one with the Anderson moment), but we do need some vocal leadership

4- If you look at the stats, BA is an indicator - generally the top teams are near the top, and bottom near the bottom. there are exceptions ... the nationals at the top, astros at the bottom. surprisingly we sit middle ... which is insane to me. We seem awful. OBP is a much better indicator with only the Rays being a top tier team while their OBP is in the bottom tier. Tigers, A's, Pirates, Orioles, Reds, Royals, DBacks, Rangers ... then go to slugging ... all of a sudden those bottom BA and OBP teams start disappearing from the bottom. The Astros all of a sudden are a top 1/3 team. Rays are closer to middle. We are not. If you look at defensive stats they aren't necessarily telling, but they do imply some things. For instance the Reds are tops in the leauge - least errors, best fielding percentage. They're not so great. Royals are top 5. Mariners top 7. That said you go to the bottom? It's the same crew over and over.. Rangers, Nats, DBacks, Rockies, Pirates ... White Sox. 

Finally if you do pitching ... the bottom teams? Reds, Nats, Royals, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Orioles, A's, etc We're about mid league again.  The top teams are the Dodgers, Yanks, Houston, TB, Mil, SD, Min, etc. 

Put it all together? I think you have to say the slugging and OBP are probably the biggest issues alongside just average D and average Pitching. Teams like the Rays are overcoming bad offense and defense by having great pitching. Teams like Astros are overcoming poor contact with slugging, defense and pitching. Teams like Washington and Cinci are negating their offense with horrible pitching. We have terrible offensive stats and just meh everywhere and just eeking out a .500 record on pure talent. 

5- coaching staff. i tend not to focus on this one. i do think it's a problem, i also think it's fools errand to think that JR will fire anybody midseason. He doesn't do it and he doesn't do it to friends like TLR - he's too loyal. So as much as I'd love to address this one, we all see it. maybe it's a hitting coach to shake it up ... i'd guess that's the most likely. everybody else is probably in due to loyalty. 

How'd I break it out? 60% injuries, 20% lack of accountability, 10% coaching, 10% roster (even when healthy)

How I'd fix it?

You need to send down Sheets. he's not good. now i've never been a fan of his so i'm tough on him, but he doesn't bring a bat, D, etc.

Harrison needs to go. There was never any upside. Take the next 3 weeks while anderson is out and learn what you have in Yolbert. Romy, etc. If you don't find lightning in a bottle you need to acquire. And acquire a super talented guy. an overpay. 

You need consistency from the manager. That means stop with the off-days. Robert back from Covid? Play him. Play Pollock. set the tone. I don't care if you have a minor injury -- if it's not a hammy or groin? If it's something that's pain management they need to be out there. Assuming we're getting the full lineup back ... i.e. Pollock, Robert, Vaughn in OF, Eloy at DH and infield of Moncada, Anderson, --- and Abreu. Grandal at C? Assuming that? You then have Leury at IF utility (actually okay with that in UTIL role) and you have Engel in reserve OF role. 

rotation? in a perfect world you need Kopech for the postseason ... without a Kopech that can go 5ip every fourth game? you might as pack it up. You'll never survive the grind with Lynn, Gio and Cease only. So fine, let Cueto and VV go out every 6th day ... or ... acquire someone. Because at a time you're going to need to sit Kopech down for a month with a fake injury. You need a guy. 

So my needs: 2b, SP

My options: 

Arizona - Rojas, Daulton Varsho (backup catcher and OF)

Cubs: Madrigal (seriously, why not? haha), Simmons (Defense/2B/Backup SS), Wade Miley

Cinci - Moustakas (his statcast are very poor though), Kyle Farmer, Nick Senzel, Luis Castillo, Tejay Antone

Detroit: unlikely, but Schoop

Miami: Brian Anderson, Jon Berti, Eleiser, Trevor Rogers

Mets: Dom smith

Oakland: Elvis Andrus, Ramon Laureano,, Frankie

Pitt: Reynolds, Brubaker, Keller, Q

Texas - Nick Solak

Now, not all of these guys fit exactly. at this point I think it's all hands on deck ... aka, Moncada sliding over to 2b needs to be on the table this year. It's a team sport and he's capable. If the price or fit of finding a 3b is easier, then that needs to be a sacrifice made this year. I also don't think we need to make a big splash at pitcher ... i'd welcome it, but at the same time we just need innings. Keuchel with a 4.5era wouldve worked... and that's all we need. Someone like Brubaker is a perfect fit in my opinion. 

My overall choice would be Brubaker or Eleiser for an arm and then honestly proably someone like Brian Anderson/Berti/Senzel/Farmer/Rojas for IF help. 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, he gone. said:

Probably a shit storm combo of the below. Ask a different people and they'll assign a different weight to each category

 

1 - the obvious and simple answer is injuries. it's not the full answer, but I doubt we'd be having the conversation about the real underlying issues if we had a healthy Lynn, Eloy, Anderson, Robert, Moncada, etc. etc. 

2 - hustle/accountability. I remember a month ago when Anderson didn't run out a ball to first base in a 1 run game in the 9th. Yesterday obviously is another example w/ McGuire jogging home. Or Mendick running there... or Boston sending Mendick? Or Boston sending Mendick, but not going over the consequences. Or TLR not setting a fire? Or maybe he is behind the scenes. But to me, there's some sort of cloud here. Whether that's batting approach, fielding approach, hustling, etc. And when it goes wrong? lack of accountability

3 - which then leads into my next one which may fit in #2 ... leadership. We don't see what goes on behind doors so I'm not going to assume, but at least whats going on outside closed door is uninspiring to say the least. I don't necessarily need a rah rah moment (we had one with the Anderson moment), but we do need some vocal leadership

4- If you look at the stats, BA is an indicator - generally the top teams are near the top, and bottom near the bottom. there are exceptions ... the nationals at the top, astros at the bottom. surprisingly we sit middle ... which is insane to me. We seem awful. OBP is a much better indicator with only the Rays being a top tier team while their OBP is in the bottom tier. Tigers, A's, Pirates, Orioles, Reds, Royals, DBacks, Rangers ... then go to slugging ... all of a sudden those bottom BA and OBP teams start disappearing from the bottom. The Astros all of a sudden are a top 1/3 team. Rays are closer to middle. We are not. If you look at defensive stats they aren't necessarily telling, but they do imply some things. For instance the Reds are tops in the leauge - least errors, best fielding percentage. They're not so great. Royals are top 5. Mariners top 7. That said you go to the bottom? It's the same crew over and over.. Rangers, Nats, DBacks, Rockies, Pirates ... White Sox. 

Finally if you do pitching ... the bottom teams? Reds, Nats, Royals, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Orioles, A's, etc We're about mid league again.  The top teams are the Dodgers, Yanks, Houston, TB, Mil, SD, Min, etc. 

Put it all together? I think you have to say the slugging and OBP are probably the biggest issues alongside just average D and average Pitching. Teams like the Rays are overcoming bad offense and defense by having great pitching. Teams like Astros are overcoming poor contact with slugging, defense and pitching. Teams like Washington and Cinci are negating their offense with horrible pitching. We have terrible offensive stats and just meh everywhere and just eeking out a .500 record on pure talent. 

5- coaching staff. i tend not to focus on this one. i do think it's a problem, i also think it's fools errand to think that JR will fire anybody midseason. He doesn't do it and he doesn't do it to friends like TLR - he's too loyal. So as much as I'd love to address this one, we all see it. maybe it's a hitting coach to shake it up ... i'd guess that's the most likely. everybody else is probably in due to loyalty. 

How'd I break it out? 60% injuries, 20% lack of accountability, 10% coaching, 10% roster (even when healthy)

How I'd fix it?

You need to send down Sheets. he's not good. now i've never been a fan of his so i'm tough on him, but he doesn't bring a bat, D, etc.

Harrison needs to go. There was never any upside. Take the next 3 weeks while anderson is out and learn what you have in Yolbert. Romy, etc. If you don't find lightning in a bottle you need to acquire. And acquire a super talented guy. an overpay. 

You need consistency from the manager. That means stop with the off-days. Robert back from Covid? Play him. Play Pollock. set the tone. I don't care if you have a minor injury -- if it's not a hammy or groin? If it's something that's pain management they need to be out there. Assuming we're getting the full lineup back ... i.e. Pollock, Robert, Vaughn in OF, Eloy at DH and infield of Moncada, Anderson, --- and Abreu. Grandal at C? Assuming that? You then have Leury at IF utility (actually okay with that in UTIL role) and you have Engel in reserve OF role. 

rotation? in a perfect world you need Kopech for the postseason ... without a Kopech that can go 5ip every fourth game? you might as pack it up. You'll never survive the grind with Lynn, Gio and Cease only. So fine, let Cueto and VV go out every 6th day ... or ... acquire someone. Because at a time you're going to need to sit Kopech down for a month with a fake injury. You need a guy. 

So my needs: 2b, SP

My options: 

Arizona - Rojas, Daulton Varsho (backup catcher and OF)

Cubs: Madrigal (seriously, why not? haha), Simmons (Defense/2B/Backup SS), Wade Miley

Cinci - Moustakas (his statcast are very poor though), Kyle Farmer, Nick Senzel, Luis Castillo, Tejay Antone

Detroit: unlikely, but Schoop

Miami: Brian Anderson, Jon Berti, Eleiser, Trevor Rogers

Mets: Dom smith

Oakland: Elvis Andrus, Ramon Laureano,, Frankie

Pitt: Reynolds, Brubaker, Keller, Q

Texas - Nick Solak

Now, not all of these guys fit exactly. at this point I think it's all hands on deck ... aka, Moncada sliding over to 2b needs to be on the table this year. It's a team sport and he's capable. If the price or fit of finding a 3b is easier, then that needs to be a sacrifice made this year. I also don't think we need to make a big splash at pitcher ... i'd welcome it, but at the same time we just need innings. Keuchel with a 4.5era wouldve worked... and that's all we need. Someone like Brubaker is a perfect fit in my opinion. 

My overall choice would be Brubaker or Eleiser for an arm and then honestly proably someone like Brian Anderson/Berti/Senzel/Farmer/Rojas for IF help. 

 

 

 

 

Imagine if we severely overpaid to get back Q to replace the $18 million Keuchel lol?  He's entering today with a 2.18 ERA.  Hahn just won't or can't go there, right?

Edited June 1, 2022 by caulfield12

[he gone.]

i'm guessing that despite the stats on quintana that his price is still quite low. thinking somehwere along the lines of conor pilkington ... isn't that the guy who we traded for ceasar hernandez and is getting some starts this year? I think you need a controllable, quasi AAAA majors guy. Gavin Sheets?

 

Honestly, just thought of that out loud ... but that's the perfect type of guy to go acquire someone like a Quintana or Brubaker in my opinion. You squint and can see the upside, but likely he bounces around like a Vogelbach type guy who has an up year or two, but is mostly bench fodder. Just too bad Sheets didn't raise his trade value this year... kinda messed it up more than anything. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, he gone. said:

i'm guessing that despite the stats on quintana that his price is still quite low. thinking somehwere along the lines of conor pilkington ... isn't that the guy who we traded for ceasar hernandez and is getting some starts this year? I think you need a controllable, quasi AAAA majors guy. Gavin Sheets?

 

Honestly, just thought of that out loud ... but that's the perfect type of guy to go acquire someone like a Quintana or Brubaker in my opinion. You squint and can see the upside, but likely he bounces around like a Vogelbach type guy who has an up year or two, but is mostly bench fodder. Just too bad Sheets didn't raise his trade value this year... kinda messed it up more than anything. 

I would ask for more than Sheets as the Pirates.  Probably Colas or Vera to start with...might not get it of course. Never hurts to ask. 

Brayan Ramos...although they are building franchise around Hayes.  Kelley as second piece...change of scenery guy.