Old Sock Drawer, ex Sox player discussion

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Snopek said:

Yeah, the playoffs being somewhat of a crapshoot is not breaking news. 

I’d rather see the team that spent years losing on purpose in order to have a window of contention put themselves in the best possible position to succeed, rather than cross their fingers and hope for the best like some fringe contender.

But I guess that’s just me!

And they have. Their odds of winning the division are like 75% and once they’re in the playoffs they’ll have as good of a shot as any other team in the AL if the roster isn’t decimated by injuries.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And they have. Their odds of winning the division are like 75% and once they’re in the playoffs they’ll have as good of a shot as any other team in the AL if the roster isn’t decimated by injuries.

You can't possibly believe they are putting themselves in the absolute best possible chance to succeed.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, SleepyWhiteSox said:

You can't possibly believe they are putting themselves in the absolute best possible chance to succeed.

I’d prefer they don’t panic and trade Vaughn for a guy like Montas. Let’s see how things play out and then come July identify where roster improvements are needed. No need to rush into a move right now that they will regret come October. 

[Tony]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’d prefer they don’t panic and trade Vaughn for a guy like Montas. Let’s see how things play out and then come July identify where roster improvements are needed. No need to rush into a move right now that they will regret come October. 

Which means they have to use assets to acquire those pieces, instead of just cash, which they could have done this offseason. 

Additionally, the Houston Astros have made the ALCS 5 years in a row. That’s not luck. The Sox have lost in two consecutive ALDS and seemingly kept the car in neutral this offseason. Sorry for wanting more. Us Sox fans have really been spoiled, seeing the Sox win 3 playoff series the last 100 years (all in 2005 mind you.)

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Which means they have to use assets to acquire those pieces, instead of just cash, which they could have done this offseason. 

Additionally, the Houston Astros have made the ALCS 5 years in a row. That’s not luck. The Sox have lost in two consecutive ALDS and seemingly kept the car in neutral this offseason. Sorry for wanting more. Us Sox fans have really been spoiled, seeing the Sox win 3 playoff series the last 100 years (all in 2005 mind you.)

Every fan wishes their organization would spend like the Dodgers but that’s not realistic. Honestly, I’m surprised Jerry even allowed a payroll 7th highest in the league. Either way, Sox contention window just opened a couple years ago. In Astros rebuild terms, the Sox are in 2017 Astros mode this season. Let’s see how the next five years play out before we label this rebuild a failure.

[Tony]

15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Every fan wishes their organization would spend like the Dodgers but that’s not realistic. Honestly, I’m surprised Jerry even allowed a payroll 7th highest in the league. Either way, Sox contention window just opened a couple years ago. In Astros rebuild terms, the Sox are in 2017 Astros mode this season. Let’s see how the next five years play out before we label this rebuild a failure.

Who called it a failure, other than you?

Who said the Sox had to spend like the Dodgers, other than you? 

That’s really what you took from what I said? Come on…

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

43 minutes ago, Tony said:

Who called it a failure, other than you?

Who said the Sox had to spend like the Dodgers, other than you? 

That’s really what you took from what I said? Come on…

 

Many on this site think the rebuild is destined to fail, already. The Sox have built one hell of a core and they’ll be contending for at least the next 3-4 seasons. Hopefully things break their way in one of those seasons and they bring home the trophy.

[Tony]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Every fan wishes their organization would spend like the Dodgers but that’s not realistic. Honestly, I’m surprised Jerry even allowed a payroll 7th highest in the league. Either way, Sox contention window just opened a couple years ago. In Astros rebuild terms, the Sox are in 2017 Astros mode this season. Let’s see how the next five years play out before we label this rebuild a failure.

This also isn’t true. If you want to be accurate, the Sox would be in the 2019 season of the Astros rebuild. The Sox have made the playoffs in the first two years of their “run” Just like the Astros did in 2017 and 2018. The only difference is the Sox failed to advance in both of their appearances. 

Unless major changes take place, the Sox window is this year and the following season. After that, major pieces of the core with become free agents or be well past their primes. And that isn’t uncommon. Most teams have a 4-5 year window to cash in. 
 

I hope they do. 

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, Tony said:

This also isn’t true. If you want to be accurate, the Sox would be in the 2019 season of the Astros rebuild. The Sox have made the playoffs in the first two years of their “run” Just like the Astros did in 2017 and 2018. The only difference is the Sox failed to advance in both of their appearances. 

Unless major changes take place, the Sox window is this year and the following season. After that, major pieces of the core with become free agents or be well past their primes. And that isn’t uncommon. Most teams have a 4-5 year window to cash in. 
 

I hope they do. 

The Royals were just two, but they REALLY made those two years count.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 hours ago, Tony said:

This also isn’t true. If you want to be accurate, the Sox would be in the 2019 season of the Astros rebuild. The Sox have made the playoffs in the first two years of their “run” Just like the Astros did in 2017 and 2018. The only difference is the Sox failed to advance in both of their appearances. 

Unless major changes take place, the Sox window is this year and the following season. After that, major pieces of the core with become free agents or be well past their primes. And that isn’t uncommon. Most teams have a 4-5 year window to cash in. 
 

I hope they do. 

Wrong. The first season the Astros made the playoffs following their rebuild was 2015. They won 80 something games again in 2016 but failed to make the playoffs. So actually, the first two seasons of the Sox “contention window” is off to a better start than the Astros “contention window.” Let’s see how the next five seasons play out. Unlike the Astros, let’s see if the Sox can win the title without cheating..

[White Sox Park]

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The Royals were just two, but they REALLY made those two years count.

Those Royals teams were exciting teams to watch.

[thxfrthmmrs]

23 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Just get in baby. Then anything can happen…

They’ve already got in two years in a row but exited early. This was supposed to be the year they take a major step forward but with the way the off-season went it’s far from likely. The frustration with is off-season is they had the financial resources to really improve the team but failed miserably.

This thread will serve as a constant reminder that the money went to Kelly, Velazquez and Harrison could have at least went to a QO for Rodon, however many innings he could give you at Cy level performance.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

38 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

They’ve already got in two years in a row but exited early. This was supposed to be the year they take a major step forward but with the way the off-season went it’s far from likely. The frustration with is off-season is they had the financial resources to really improve the team but failed miserably.

This thread will serve as a constant reminder that the money went to Kelly, Velazquez and Harrison could have at least went to a QO for Rodon, however many innings he could give you at Cy level performance.

You hit the nail on the head right there about all that matters is postseason performance at this point in the rebuild. It’s a failure if they win 100+ games but exit in the first round.

The question is who will be bigger contributors come October? Kelly, VV, and Harrison or Rodon? I don’t think that’s a slam dunk answer personally given Rodon’s injury history.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You hit the nail on the head right there about all that matters is postseason performance at this point in the rebuild. It’s a failure if they win 100+ games but exit in the first round.

The question is who will be bigger contributors come October? Kelly, VV, and Harrison or Rodon? I don’t think that’s a slam dunk answer personally given Rodon’s injury history.

Rodon being on the roster and useful in October is a legitimate question.  Kind of hard to be a contributor if you can't play.  The question about Rodon has never been about ability or potential.  It is 100% about health.

[A-Train to 35th]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Rodon being on the roster and useful in October is a legitimate question.  Kind of hard to be a contributor if you can't play.  The question about Rodon has never been about ability or potential.  It is 100% about health.

Agree, and I'm not willing to take a 44 million chance on Carlos staying healthy.  So far he's pitched great in 2 games, much like last years start, but will he be there at the finish when it counts.  In the 2 games, Carlos is 1-1 with 21 K's and he's averaging 89.5 pitches in 6 innings. I would hardly call that watching his workload.  If he keeps up this pace he'll be worn out in July-August and of no use in the playoffs.  

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

44 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Rodon being on the roster and useful in October is a legitimate question.  Kind of hard to be a contributor if you can't play.  The question about Rodon has never been about ability or potential.  It is 100% about health.

Exactly why I posed that question and don’t think there’s a sure answer. But many here seem to think it’s already decided. We’ll find out in 5 months.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Exactly why I posed that question and don’t think there’s a sure answer. But many here seem to think it’s already decided. We’ll find out in 5 months.

It's not a "sure" answer.  Nothing in baseball is.  it is 100% playing the odds.  But at the end of the day, when you have a guy who has qualified for an ERA title ONCE in 7 years, it would make sense to believe that this year won't be different.

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You hit the nail on the head right there about all that matters is postseason performance at this point in the rebuild. It’s a failure if they win 100+ games but exit in the first round.

The question is who will be bigger contributors come October? Kelly, VV, and Harrison or Rodon? I don’t think that’s a slam dunk answer personally given Rodon’s injury history.

As I pointed earlier in the thread, Rodon may miss some time during the season, but he would have pitched into October in all but 2 seasons in his 7 seasons as a pro, had the Sox made the playoffs. I will take those odds 10 times out of 10, especially since 2 out of the 3 guys you mentioned may not even be on the roster come October. Also regular season record, seeding, and home field advantage matters, so let’s not chalk anything Rodon could have provided in the regular season as insignificant.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

12 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

As I pointed earlier in the thread, Rodon may miss some time during the season, but he would have pitched into October in all but 2 seasons in his 7 seasons as a pro, had the Sox made the playoffs. I will take those odds 10 times out of 10, especially since 2 out of the 3 guys you mentioned may not even be on the roster come October. Also regular season record, seeding, and home field advantage matters, so let’s not chalk anything Rodon could have provided in the regular season as insignificant.

Home field advantage matters so much in mlb that both the top seeds were bounced in the first round last year. Home field is overrated in MLB postseason play. This isn’t the NBA or NFL.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/homefield-advantage2017mlbplayoffs

Regarding Rodon, it’s one thing to be pitching in October. It’s another thing altogether to be pitching effectively come October. I don’t like his odds of both pitching and pitching effectively come October. That’s just me though.

Edited April 18, 2022 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[thxfrthmmrs]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Home field advantage matters so much in mlb that both the top seeds were bounced in the first round last year. Home field is overrated in MLB postseason play. This isn’t the NBA or NFL.

Regarding Rodon, it’s one thing to be pitching in October. It’s another thing altogether to be pitching effectively come October. I don’t like his odds of both pitching and pitching effectively come October. That’s just me though.

+8% of winning overall in the playoff for teams with HFA, and that bumps up to +20% for World Series, dating back to 1969. Also with expanded playoffs better seeding would only help.

It pretty crazy we’re debating whether we should have Kelly, VV, Harrison over Rodon. Really, it’s nuts.

[Rowand44]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Home field advantage matters so much in mlb that both the top seeds were bounced in the first round last year. Home field is overrated in MLB postseason play. This isn’t the NBA or NFL.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/homefield-advantage2017mlbplayoffs

Regarding Rodon, it’s one thing to be pitching in October. It’s another thing altogether to be pitching effectively come October. I don’t like his odds of both pitching and pitching effectively come October. That’s just me though.

The Sox were much better at home last year(and I'm sure that'll be the case this year too) and with the top 2 teams having a bye this year that stuff matters a lot this season.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, thxfrthmmrs said:

+8% of winning overall in the playoff for teams with HFA, and that bumps up to +20% for World Series, dating back to 1969. Also with expanded playoffs better seeding would only help.

It pretty crazy we’re debating whether we should have Kelly, VV, Harrison over Rodon. Really, it’s nuts.

Under the new playoff format, I agree that gaining a top two seed is important now that the league introduced the bye. Prior to that, there was very little difference between any of the seeds as long as you stayed out of the wild card round (we even saw a number of recent WC teams win the WS tho). I still like the Sox chances of earning a top two seed and don’t see a big difference between a #1 and #2 seed.

I don’t think we’re going to settle anything now, we’ll see how these guys look come October. If Rodon is still healthy and pitching effectively while the other three flame out then we’ll have our answer. But I’ve got a feeling it won’t be that clear cut.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Rowand44 said:

The Sox were much better at home last year(and I'm sure that'll be the case this year too) and with the top 2 teams having a bye this year that stuff matters a lot this season.  

Yea, I addressed the top two seed thing in my next post. But if you’re being honest, do you really think the Sox beat the Astros last season even with home field advantage? Personally, I think we would have seen the exact same outcome of Astros in 4.

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yea, I addressed the top two seed thing in my next post. But if you’re being honest, do you really think the Sox beat the Astros last season even with home field advantage? Personally, I think we would have seen the exact same outcome of Astros in 4.

No guarantees, but I rather play them with HFA then no HFA. Playing first 2 games at home and splitting 1-1 or maybe even going 2-0 would have put less pressure on them going into games 3 and 4, you could tell they were already deflated coming home. Astros might still have pulled out in 5, but having HFA could have changed dynamics of the series.

[Rowand44]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yea, I addressed the top two seed thing in my next post. But if you’re being honest, do you really think the Sox beat the Astros last season even with home field advantage? Personally, I think we would have seen the exact same outcome of Astros in 4.

The Astros were the better team for sure but the Sox were sooooo much better at home that things possibly could have possibly been different.  Look, you saying that HFA doesn't matter and just bringing up the top seeds last year just isn't fair.  The Giants were virtually the same team at home and away and the Rays were just a tad better at home.  The Sox were 13 games better at home last year compared to the road, that type of stuff clearly mattered to that team.  Will it matter this year?  I obviously don't know but it certainly could.