Old Sock Drawer, ex Sox player discussion

[thxfrthmmrs]

9 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Wrong. The first season the Astros made the playoffs following their rebuild was 2015. They won 80 something games again in 2016 but failed to make the playoffs. So actually, the first two seasons of the Sox “contention window” is off to a better start than the Astros “contention window.” Let’s see how the next five seasons play out. Unlike the Astros, let’s see if the Sox can win the title without cheating..

Astros were able to extend their window through advanced scouting, player development, and using data analytics to improve their production overall. They lost key contributors over the years but were able to inject homegrown stars like Yordan and Tucker. Then they were able to develop under the radar prospects like Framber, Urquidy, Luis Garcia into legit front line starters. Even established vets like Cole and Verlander had career years after joining them. Not to mentioned they’re able to build bullpen by developing them instead of spending a fortune. The theme here is elite player development and getting more out of their players.

I don’t see Sox having any of those infrastructures in place to enjoy an extended run like the Astros.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

The Astros were the better team for sure but the Sox were sooooo much better at home that things possibly could have possibly been different.  Look, you saying that HFA doesn't matter and just bringing up the top seeds last year just isn't fair.  The Giants were virtually the same team at home and away and the Rays were just a tad better at home.  The Sox were 13 games better at home last year compared to the road, that type of stuff clearly mattered to that team.  Will it matter this year?  I obviously don't know but it certainly could.

It matters but by the slimmest of margins. The more important thing is being healthy and playing well at the right time. Peaking in July doesn’t do much good come October. The Braves peaked at just the right time. Sox starting pitchers being so healthy last season was apparently a blessing and a curse because they looked like shit in the playoffs.

[caulfield12]

39 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

The Astros were the better team for sure but the Sox were sooooo much better at home that things possibly could have possibly been different.  Look, you saying that HFA doesn't matter and just bringing up the top seeds last year just isn't fair.  The Giants were virtually the same team at home and away and the Rays were just a tad better at home.  The Sox were 13 games better at home last year compared to the road, that type of stuff clearly mattered to that team.  Will it matter this year?  I obviously don't know but it certainly could.

Or that Glasnow was out…or that the Giants had to face one of the best second place teams in MLB history, a team that finished with only one more loss on the entire season.

 

As far as Rodon goes, he now has a baseline or foundation of innings to work from now…after that 2-3 year mess of injuries.  Some are arguing he can only make 100-120 innings again, others for 140-150 and beyond.  The proof will be in the pudding.   Most would bet on the Gianys based on the recent success of the Zaidi front office turning lemons into lemonade on the pitching front.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Or that Glasnow was out…or that the Giants had to face one of the best second place teams in MLB history, a team that finished with only one more loss on the entire season.

 

As far as Rodon goes, he now has a baseline or foundation of innings to work from now…after that 2-3 year mess of injuries.  Some are arguing he can only make 100-120 innings again, others for 140-150 and beyond.  The proof will be in the pudding.   Most would bet on the Gianys based on the recent success of the Zaidi front office turning lemons into lemonade on the pitching front.

Which is why being healthy and playing well when the playoffs start is 1000x more important than home field advantage…

Edited April 19, 2022 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Which is why being healthy and playing well when the playoffs start is 1000x more important than home field advantage…

And that’s why the well rested white Sox did so well against the Astros.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

And that’s why the well rested white Sox did so well against the Astros.

The Sox were not playing well down the stretch last season. They were only a few games over .500 after the all star break. Then they played a team that owned them during the regular season too so the combination of not playing their best baseball late in the season combined with a team they did not match up well against was a death knell. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The Sox were not playing well down the stretch last season. They were only a few games over .500 after the all star break. Then they played a team that owned them during the regular season too so the combination of not playing their best baseball late in the season combined with a team they did not match up well against was a death knell. 

They won 8 of their last 11 though...at that point, too late to catch Houston.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They won 8 of their last 11 though...at that point, too late to catch Houston.

16-13 in September/October. Not exactly setting the world on fire especially while playing against a lot of teams that dumped players at the trade deadline and/or were giving their minor leaguers a look at the big league level (only 3 of those last 29 games were against playoff teams).

Edited April 19, 2022 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[SonofaRoache]

25 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The Sox were not playing well down the stretch last season. They were only a few games over .500 after the all star break. Then they played a team that owned them during the regular season too so the combination of not playing their best baseball late in the season combined with a team they did not match up well against was a death knell. 

Houston owned us in Houston, not Chicago. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

Houston owned us in Houston, not Chicago. 

McCullers owned us all season, even in Chicago. I was there for his start in Chicago, first game after ASB. Sox offense looked sick against him. Not surprising he dominated in his two postseason starts as well.

[SonofaRoache]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

McCullers owned us all season, even in Chicago. I was there for his start in Chicago, first game after ASB. Sox offense looked sick against him. Not surprising he dominated in his two postseason starts as well.

In Houston 0-6. In Chicago 3-2. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

In Houston 0-6. In Chicago 3-2. 

We split in Chicago 2-2 regular season, 1-1 postseason. Hard to win a series if you’re splitting your home games but can’t win any of the road games…

[caulfield12]

So basically, best to avoid the team that has gone to five consecutive ALCS and three World Series...

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

So basically, best to avoid the team that has gone to five consecutive ALCS and three World Series...

I’d really like the Sox chances if they played Houston without McCullers like the Braves did in the WS…

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Astros were able to extend their window through advanced scouting, player development, and using data analytics to improve their production overall. They lost key contributors over the years but were able to inject homegrown stars like Yordan and Tucker. Then they were able to develop under the radar prospects like Framber, Urquidy, Luis Garcia into legit front line starters. Even established vets like Cole and Verlander had career years after joining them. Not to mentioned they’re able to build bullpen by developing them instead of spending a fortune. The theme here is elite player development and getting more out of their players.

I don’t see Sox having any of those infrastructures in place to enjoy an extended run like the Astros.

5o be fair, yordan wasn't a home grown star. He was acquired for josh fields I believe.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

5o be fair, yordan wasn't a home grown star. He was acquired for josh fields I believe.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/209185/

UDFA for Dodgers, but his entire minor league career was spent developing with Houston.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

18 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The Sox were not playing well down the stretch last season. They were only a few games over .500 after the all star break. Then they played a team that owned them during the regular season too so the combination of not playing their best baseball late in the season combined with a team they did not match up well against was a death knell. 

And not being at home.

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And not being at home.

Yeah, I'd be willing to risk a 60% insured QO to Rodon that he could pitch in enough games and perform better than Vince Velasquez could over an entire healthy season for VV.

That difference ALONE, even if Rodon were to go down injured by years' end, could mean the difference between playing a series in Houston, Tampa, or Toronto, and facing those teams with HFA.

But, yay! We've got a bullpen, and an injured 34 year old LFer in RF.

[CentralChamps21]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I'd be willing to risk a 60% insured QO to Rodon that he could pitch in enough games and perform better than Vince Velasquez could over an entire healthy season for VV.

That difference ALONE, even if Rodon were to go down injured by years' end, could mean the difference between playing a series in Houston, Tampa, or Toronto, and facing those teams with HFA.

But, yay! We've got a bullpen, and an injured 34 year old LFer in RF.

No chance Rodon takes the QO. Boras pushes his clients to reject the QO, even if it means not getting a serious offer.

See Conforto, Michael.

[Two-Gun Pete]

22 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

No chance Rodon takes the QO. Boras pushes his clients to reject the QO, even if it means not getting a serious offer.

See Conforto, Michael.

And there's also no chance he gets 2/$44MM with a QO attached to him.

I stand by the previous post, even if Rodon would have gotten ~$19-20MM for this year.

Adding negative WAR, whether its VV, or Josh Harrison, is deleterious to your team's chances. 

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I'd be willing to risk a 60% insured QO to Rodon that he could pitch in enough games and perform better than Vince Velasquez could over an entire healthy season for VV.

That difference ALONE, even if Rodon were to go down injured by years' end, could mean the difference between playing a series in Houston, Tampa, or Toronto, and facing those teams with HFA.

But, yay! We've got a bullpen, and an injured 34 year old LFer in RF.

But then the Sox won't have him for the playoffs. I really don't think the Sox need him for the regular season. A rotation of Giolito, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Keuchal, Velasquez and Lopez is enty for the regular season.

I would have preferred another 4-5 type starter to get through the season but spending even 18 mil on Rodon was a luxury they couldn't afford.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Good starting pitching has won a lot of Championships. If it's a luxury at $44M , it's time for the owner to get of the business.

[oldsox]

16 minutes ago, ptatc said:

But then the Sox won't have him for the playoffs. I really don't think the Sox need him for the regular season. A rotation of Giolito, Lynn, Cease, Kopech, Keuchal, Velasquez and Lopez is enty for the regular season.

I would have preferred another 4-5 type starter to get through the season but spending even 18 mil on Rodon was a luxury they couldn't afford.

If they gave Rodon a qualifying offer, he probably would have turned it down.  We missed a draft pick.

[ptatc]

20 minutes ago, oldsox said:

If they gave Rodon a qualifying offer, he probably would have turned it down.  We missed a draft pick.

Probably is the operative word. They didn't want to take the chance he would accept it.

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Probably is the operative word. They didn't want to take the chance he would accept it.

Well, that would have been a huge bargain even if he only put up 100-120 innings because he's currently on pace for a 6+ fWAR.

All he needed was 2-2.25 to be considered "earning his pay" based on $8-9 million for FA f/WAR standards.