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Your 2023 Off-Season Plan


ChiSox59
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First, let's lay out 2023 contract commitments:

Guaranteed

  • Lynn - $18.5M
  • Grandal - $18.25M
  • Moncada - $17M
  • Hendriks - $14M
  • Pollock - $13M (player option with $5M buyout)
  • Anderson - $12.5M (team option)
  • Jimenez - $9.5M
  • Robert - $9.5M
  • Kelly - $9M
  • Graveman - $8M
  • Garcia - $5.5M
  • Bummer - $3.75M
  • Diekman - $3.5M

*This assumes White Sox turn down Harrison's $5.5M team option*

*Other impending FA's include Abreu, Cueto, Valasquez, and Andrus*

TOTAL GUARANTEED = $142M

Arbitration Eligible *updated based on MLBTR projections*

  • Cease (arb 1) - $5.3M
  • Kopech (arb 1) - $2.2M
  • Mendick (arb 1) - $1M
  • Giolito (arb 3) - $10.8M
  • Lopez (arb 3) - $3.3M
  • Engel (arb 3) - NON TENDER (MLBTR projection of $2.3M)
  • Crick (arb 3) - NON TENDER (MLBTR projetion of $1.5M)
  • Ruiz (arb 1) - NON TENDER (MLBTR projection of $1M)
  • Crochet (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Gonzalez (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Lambert (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Sheets (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Vaughn (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Zavala (pre-arb) - $700k

TOTAL ARB = $26.8M; TOTAL PAYROLL = $168.8M

The White Sox 2022 payroll was ~$197M, so this gives the Sox around $30M to spend to match 2022 payroll

My Offseason Moves

  • First order of business is announcing Tony is re-retiring, and a full blown managerial search is underway.  An entirely new coaching staff with fresh and modern perspectives is sorely needed.  
  • Sign Brandon Nimmo to 4/$80M.  Jump the market and get it done.  He's the best fit on the market and solves a ton of team needs.
  • Sign SP Andrew Heaney (1 year/$9M)
    • There are a slew of options in that $6-12M range, pick one
  • Make the very hard, but necessary, decision to let Jose Abreu play elsewhere.  The other alternative here of course is the Sox resign Abreu to 1/$15M or something, and look to trade AV or Eloy for larger roster shakeup.  Problem is, this makes signing an impact LH bat in the OF that can actually field his position impossible without a legit increase in payroll.  The time is now; let him walk before its too late, but FFS, build him a statue. 

Total payroll comes in ~$194M, a slight reduction on 2022.  

2023 Roster / Lineup

 Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Nimmo RF, Vaughn 1B, Pollock LF, Yaz/Seby C, Mendick/Romy 2B

BN: Seby/Yaz, Mendick/Romy, Leury, Sheets

*Colas arrives in May, takes Pollock spot in LF, and makes Pollock 4th OF. Sheets goes to AAA*

*Other 2B options throughout season include Sosa, Yolbert and Rodriguez*

Rotation: Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Kopech, Heaney

Bullpen: Hendriks, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Crochet, Lambert, Diekman 

*Martin is 6th SP waiting for his opportunity in AAA*

Edited by ChiSox59
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21 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

First, let's lay out 2023 contract commitments:

Guaranteed

  • Lynn - $18.5M
  • Grandal - $18.25M
  • Moncada - $17M
  • Hendriks - $14M
  • Pollock - $13M (player option with $5M buyout)
  • Anderson - $12.5M (team option)
  • Jimenez - $9.5M
  • Robert - $9.5M
  • Kelly - $9M
  • Graveman - $8M
  • Garcia - $5.5M
  • Bummer - $3.75M
  • Diekman - $3.5M

*This assumes White Sox turn down Harrison's $5.5M team option*

*Other impending FA's include Abreu, Cueto, Valasquez, and Andrus*

TOTAL GUARANTEED = $142M

Arbitration Eligible *my estimates for arb totals / non tenders*

  • Cease (arb 1) - $2.5M
  • Kopech (arb 1) - $1.25M
  • Mendick (arb 1) - $1M
  • Giolito (arb 3) - $10M
  • Lopez (arb 3) - $3.5M
  • Engel (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Crick (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Ruiz (arb 1) - NON TENDER
  • Crochet (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Gonzalez (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Lambert (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Sheets (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Vaughn (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Zavala (pre-arb) - $700k

TOTAL ARB = $22.45M; TOTAL PAYROLL = $164.45M

The White Sox 2022 payroll was ~$197M, so this gives the Sox around $30M to spend to match 2022 payroll

My Offseason Moves

  • First order of business is announcing Tony is re-retiring, and a full blown managerial search is underway.  An entirely new coaching staff with fresh and modern perspectives is sorely needed.  
  • Sign Brandon Nimmo to 4/$80M.  Jump the market and get it done.  He's the best fit on the market and solves a ton of team needs.
  • Sign SP Andrew Heaney (1 year/$9M)
    • There are a slew of options in that $6-12M range, pick one
  • Make the very hard, but necessary, decision to let Jose Abreu play elsewhere.  The other alternative here of course is the Sox resign Abreu to 1/$15M or something, and look to trade AV or Eloy for larger roster shakeup.  Problem is, this makes signing an impact LH bat in the OF that can actually field his position impossible without a legit increase in payroll.  The time is now; let him walk before its too late, but FFS, build him a statue. 

Total payroll comes in ~$194M, a slight reduction on 2022.  

2023 Roster / Lineup

 Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Nimmo RF, Vaughn 1B, Pollock LF, Yaz/Seby C, Mendick/Romy 2B

BN: Seby/Yaz, Mendick/Romy, Leury, Sheets

*Colas arrives in May, takes Pollock spot in LF, and makes Pollock 4th OF. Sheets goes to AAA*

*Other 2B options throughout season include Sosa, Yolbert and Rodriguez*

Rotation: Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Kopech, Heaney

Bullpen: Hendriks, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Crochet, Lambert, Diekman 

*Martin is 6th SP waiting for his opportunity in AAA*

Very close to what I would do. The only difference coming in the batting order but that is something that is pretty fluid throughout a season anyway.

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23 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

First, let's lay out 2023 contract commitments:

Guaranteed

  • Lynn - $18.5M
  • Grandal - $18.25M
  • Moncada - $17M
  • Hendriks - $14M
  • Pollock - $13M (player option with $5M buyout)
  • Anderson - $12.5M (team option)
  • Jimenez - $9.5M
  • Robert - $9.5M
  • Kelly - $9M
  • Graveman - $8M
  • Garcia - $5.5M
  • Bummer - $3.75M
  • Diekman - $3.5M

*This assumes White Sox turn down Harrison's $5.5M team option*

*Other impending FA's include Abreu, Cueto, Valasquez, and Andrus*

TOTAL GUARANTEED = $142M

Arbitration Eligible *my estimates for arb totals / non tenders*

  • Cease (arb 1) - $2.5M
  • Kopech (arb 1) - $1.25M
  • Mendick (arb 1) - $1M
  • Giolito (arb 3) - $10M
  • Lopez (arb 3) - $3.5M
  • Engel (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Crick (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Ruiz (arb 1) - NON TENDER
  • Crochet (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Gonzalez (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Lambert (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Sheets (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Vaughn (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Zavala (pre-arb) - $700k

TOTAL ARB = $22.45M; TOTAL PAYROLL = $164.45M

The White Sox 2022 payroll was ~$197M, so this gives the Sox around $30M to spend to match 2022 payroll

My Offseason Moves

  • First order of business is announcing Tony is re-retiring, and a full blown managerial search is underway.  An entirely new coaching staff with fresh and modern perspectives is sorely needed.  
  • Sign Brandon Nimmo to 4/$80M.  Jump the market and get it done.  He's the best fit on the market and solves a ton of team needs.
  • Sign SP Andrew Heaney (1 year/$9M)
    • There are a slew of options in that $6-12M range, pick one
  • Make the very hard, but necessary, decision to let Jose Abreu play elsewhere.  The other alternative here of course is the Sox resign Abreu to 1/$15M or something, and look to trade AV or Eloy for larger roster shakeup.  Problem is, this makes signing an impact LH bat in the OF that can actually field his position impossible without a legit increase in payroll.  The time is now; let him walk before its too late, but FFS, build him a statue. 

Total payroll comes in ~$194M, a slight reduction on 2022.  

2023 Roster / Lineup

 Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Nimmo RF, Vaughn 1B, Pollock LF, Yaz/Seby C, Mendick/Romy 2B

BN: Seby/Yaz, Mendick/Romy, Leury, Sheets

*Colas arrives in May, takes Pollock spot in LF, and makes Pollock 4th OF. Sheets goes to AAA*

*Other 2B options throughout season include Sosa, Yolbert and Rodriguez*

Rotation: Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Kopech, Heaney

Bullpen: Hendriks, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Crochet, Lambert, Diekman 

*Martin is 6th SP waiting for his opportunity in AAA*

That's pretty much it.  Almost no choice but to run it back.  And I'd much prefer an OF in their prime than selling Vaughn and likely overpaying Abreu.  

Only question I have: 

Will there be a better defensive outfielder available for under or near the 8 million you spent to keep Pollock?  JBJ, Laureano, Marisnick, Kiermaier? 

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Just now, GREEDY said:

That's pretty much it.  Almost no choice but to run it back.  And I'd much prefer an OF in their prime than selling Vaughn and likely overpaying Abreu.  

Only question I have: 

Will there be a better defensive outfielder available for under or near the 8 million you spent to keep Pollock?  JBJ, Laureano, Marisnick, Kiermaier? 

Its a player option.  Pollock isn't beating $8M net on the FA market.  The only way Pollock isn't on the 2023 roster is if he's miserable, wants out and is willing to take a few million less to play elsewhere.  We should all assume Pollock is on the roster for 2023 until he declines the player option, which seems incredibly unlikely. 

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I have the same exact plan as heading into 2022.

  • Fire everyone (FO / Manager / Staff) but Paddy and perhaps Katz
  • Trade or dump as many Hahn acquired veterans as possible, for younger players.
  • Target top late age 20s Free Agents for the holes.
  • Improve analytics and defensive shifting.

Here was my 2022 Plan: 

 

My trade proposals were with Miami who was interested in Eloy and Yermin (Pablo Lopez), Grandal for Gallo, Burger, Collins and prospects for Contreras, and FAs Robbie Ray, Yan Gomes, Leury Garcia (though not for $17M), and a few RPs. This lineup, dugout staff and a proper manager would be preparing for October at this stage.

This year, I don't believe there is a firm path to postseason success, and would seriously consider moving good players with bad, depending on teams needs like the Dodgers. If you can couple Anderson, Liam and or Lynn, who they want (Anderson if they aren't resigning Trea Turner) with contracts they will eat or DFA (Grandal, Pollock, Kelly, a smart GM could use that payroll flexibility to field a stronger overall team in 2023, or continue moving pieces to target 2025 (Colas, Montgomery, others).

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Since TR is the only salary option available, I would try to trade him and sign Elvis while we wait for Colson.

We're not going anywhere with a team made up of 5 starting DH's (Eloy, Vaughn, Sheets, Abreu, and Yas)  We need speed, and although TR is our fastest player I would trade him for a couple of  prospects that have speed and play good defense.

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46 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

First, let's lay out 2023 contract commitments:

Guaranteed

  • Lynn - $18.5M
  • Grandal - $18.25M
  • Moncada - $17M
  • Hendriks - $14M
  • Pollock - $13M (player option with $5M buyout)
  • Anderson - $12.5M (team option)
  • Jimenez - $9.5M
  • Robert - $9.5M
  • Kelly - $9M
  • Graveman - $8M
  • Garcia - $5.5M
  • Bummer - $3.75M
  • Diekman - $3.5M

*This assumes White Sox turn down Harrison's $5.5M team option*

*Other impending FA's include Abreu, Cueto, Valasquez, and Andrus*

TOTAL GUARANTEED = $142M

Arbitration Eligible *my estimates for arb totals / non tenders*

  • Cease (arb 1) - $2.5M
  • Kopech (arb 1) - $1.25M
  • Mendick (arb 1) - $1M
  • Giolito (arb 3) - $10M
  • Lopez (arb 3) - $3.5M
  • Engel (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Crick (arb 3) - NON TENDER
  • Ruiz (arb 1) - NON TENDER
  • Crochet (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Gonzalez (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Lambert (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Sheets (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Vaughn (pre-arb) - $700k
  • Zavala (pre-arb) - $700k

TOTAL ARB = $22.45M; TOTAL PAYROLL = $164.45M

The White Sox 2022 payroll was ~$197M, so this gives the Sox around $30M to spend to match 2022 payroll

My Offseason Moves

  • First order of business is announcing Tony is re-retiring, and a full blown managerial search is underway.  An entirely new coaching staff with fresh and modern perspectives is sorely needed.  
  • Sign Brandon Nimmo to 4/$80M.  Jump the market and get it done.  He's the best fit on the market and solves a ton of team needs.
  • Sign SP Andrew Heaney (1 year/$9M)
    • There are a slew of options in that $6-12M range, pick one
  • Make the very hard, but necessary, decision to let Jose Abreu play elsewhere.  The other alternative here of course is the Sox resign Abreu to 1/$15M or something, and look to trade AV or Eloy for larger roster shakeup.  Problem is, this makes signing an impact LH bat in the OF that can actually field his position impossible without a legit increase in payroll.  The time is now; let him walk before its too late, but FFS, build him a statue. 

Total payroll comes in ~$194M, a slight reduction on 2022.  

2023 Roster / Lineup

 Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Eloy DH, Nimmo RF, Vaughn 1B, Pollock LF, Yaz/Seby C, Mendick/Romy 2B

BN: Seby/Yaz, Mendick/Romy, Leury, Sheets

*Colas arrives in May, takes Pollock spot in LF, and makes Pollock 4th OF. Sheets goes to AAA*

*Other 2B options throughout season include Sosa, Yolbert and Rodriguez*

Rotation: Cease, Lynn, Giolito, Kopech, Heaney

Bullpen: Hendriks, Graveman, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Crochet, Lambert, Diekman 

*Martin is 6th SP waiting for his opportunity in AAA*

I'm on board with this.  Well thought out and logical.

It pains me to let Abreu walk, but it is the right move.  I would also DFA Leury and give anyone else a shot at 2B/Util.  Yaz is also the backup and only the backup C, never DH and only an emergency 1B.  Sunk costs/bad contracts don't entitle playing time when you suck.

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First of all, I'm hoping Hahn gets the boot and they put a new FO in that doesn't suck ass at signing veteran free agents. Also, I'm assuming Tony is gonna be gone as manager. Please do a real managerial search. Cairo has obviously shown that he has more energy than a corpse, but some of the in-game decisions were just as bad, if not worse, than Tony (see: Tuesday's bullpen decisions). 

My Offseason Moves:

  • Offer Jose Abreu a 1 year $10 million deal. Is it a bit insulting? Maybe, but if he agrees to it, that's a near market value deal for what he is projected to produce. First basemen after the age of 35 typically fall off a cliff in terms of production. 
  • If Jose doesn't take the deal, go with plan A and try to sign Brandon Nimmo for 4 years and $70 million. I feel like that's in the ballpark the Sox are comfortable with. I'm not sure if that's gonna be enough though, as the OF market outside of Judge is fairly thin this year.
  • If we miss out on Nimmo or Jose takes the 1 year deal, try signing Gallo or Comforto to a short term deal to improve their value. Something like 1 year $10-12 million but with a team option attached. 
  • If we swing and miss on all of those, there's always Tyler Naquin and David Peralta to go after for real cheap. Like a 1 year $5 million type deal. 
  • Sign one of Cueto, Manaea, Wacha, Gibson, Clevinger as 5th starter for 1 year and $8 million.  My preference here is probably Manaea, although his stuff has deteriorated big time this year as the season has gone on. Cueto would make a great 5th starter if he continues to pitch like he has this year, but he's going to be 37 next year and his stuff his been very suspect recently. So who knows where he's really headed. 
  • Re-sign Elvis Andrus to a 1 year $5 million deal with a team option ($1 million buyout) for 2024 to play 2B. Andrus won't hit like he has so far with the Sox over the course of a whole season, but he's a smart player and actually does the little things well. Something you need on a winning team and something this team lacks quite a lot of. I'm also not convinced the options the Sox have in-house (Romy, Sosa, Yolbert) aren't gonna be a roulette wheel of strikeouts. 
  • Colas will probably come up in late April, early May to replace whoever gets injured in the OF. 

OD roster:

1. SS Anderson
2. RF Nimmo (L)
3. CF Robert
4. DH Jimenez
5. 1B Vaughn
6. 3B Moncada (S)
7. LF Pollock
8. C Garandal (S)
9. 2B Andrus 

BN - Sheets (L)
BN - Garcia (S)
BN - Zavala
BN - Payton (L)

SP1 - Cease
SP2 - Lynn
SP3 - Giolito
SP4 - Kopech
SP5 - Manaea (L)

LR Foster
MR Lambert
MR Kelly
MR Diekman (L)
MR Lopez
SU Bummer (L)
SU Graveman
CP Hendriks

Total payroll: $195 million

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12 minutes ago, flavum said:

I want more blood than this, this offseason, but seems realistic.
The new manager needs to run spring training like nothing some of these players have ever seen. The expectations need to be set before they even get there. 

Yep. I get that and am not opposed.  There will be trades.  Its just really difficult to figure out what those look like until the Abreu decision is made.  Its also tough because our most tradable assets are our obviously our most impactful players, and the guys everyone wants to move on from have very little value and are worth more to the Sox than anyone else.  Sox seems better off letting guys like Moncada, Eloy, and Yaz try to improve on their 2022 health and performance wise rather than trading for some fraction on the dollar.  

But I am all for a huge roster shake up.  Its just tough to even know where to start.  Trading TA might be the domino that makes the most sense, honestly.  I just don't think the Sox will go that route, realistically.  I do, however, think it is very possible the Sox do decide to keep Abreu, pay him more than anyone else will, and then trade AV for a SP.  Which I would dislike a lot.  

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4 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

I'm on board with this.  Well thought out and logical.

It pains me to let Abreu walk, but it is the right move.  I would also DFA Leury and give anyone else a shot at 2B/Util.  Yaz is also the backup and only the backup C, never DH and only an emergency 1B.  Sunk costs/bad contracts don't entitle playing time when you suck.

Yep.  I think Yaz, if he can get those knees right, could be useful part time catcher.  I don't see a different  regime overplaying him.  Of course, the $18M he's due is a sunk cost, and they're not getting that back so just have to make the most of it.  

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep. I get that and am not opposed.  There will be trades.  Its just really difficult to figure out what those look like until the Abreu decision is made.  Its also tough because our most tradable assets are our obviously our most impactful players, and the guys everyone wants to move on from have very little value and are worth more to the Sox than anyone else.  Sox seems better off letting guys like Moncada, Eloy, and Yaz try to improve on their 2022 health and performance wise rather than trading for some fraction on the dollar.  

But I am all for a huge roster shake up.  Its just tough to even know where to start.  Trading TA might be the domino that makes the most sense, honestly.  I just don't think the Sox will go that route, realistically.  I do, however, think it is very possible the Sox do decide to keep Abreu, pay him more than anyone else will, and then trade AV for a SP.  Which I would dislike a lot.  

Jose is bound to fall off a cliff at anytime. The lack of power this year is a bit alarming. It's just a thing with aging 1B. Paulie was actually really productive for half of 2012. Then all of a sudden he can't hit in 2013. You don't want to be left holding the bag when you give Jose a 2 year $30 million deal out of loyalty. 

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep. I get that and am not opposed.  There will be trades.  Its just really difficult to figure out what those look like until the Abreu decision is made.  Its also tough because our most tradable assets are our obviously our most impactful players, and the guys everyone wants to move on from have very little value and are worth more to the Sox than anyone else.  Sox seems better off letting guys like Moncada, Eloy, and Yaz try to improve on their 2022 health and performance wise rather than trading for some fraction on the dollar.  

But I am all for a huge roster shake up.  Its just tough to even know where to start.  Trading TA might be the domino that makes the most sense, honestly.  I just don't think the Sox will go that route, realistically.  I do, however, think it is very possible the Sox do decide to keep Abreu, pay him more than anyone else will, and then trade AV for a SP.  Which I would dislike a lot.  

Why would the Sox keep Abreu for another year or 2?, and trade his replacement?  Sheets is not better than Vaughn at 1B.  This team needs to get younger, not older.

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4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yep.  I think Yaz, if he can get those knees right, could be useful part time catcher.  I don't see a different  regime overplaying him.  Of course, the $18M he's due is a sunk cost, and they're not getting that back so just have to make the most of it.  

Once teams can no longer play an infielder in the OF, he might actually get a few more singles from those balls he can't elevate from the left side. Yaz was actually pretty good against lefties this year, so his skills might still be there. You just have to hope he gets healthy and rebounds. And maybe banning the shift adds some points to this batting average. 

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3 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Why would the Sox keep Abreu for another year or 2?, and trade his replacement?  Sheets is not better than Vaughn at 1B.  This team needs to get younger, not older.

If you read my first post, you will see that I agree.  I don't want to Sox to re-sign Abreu.  But this is the White Sox, the most loyal sports organization in the world and Pito has never worn another jersey, and our owner loves him.  So until he signs elsewhere, the Sox totally botching this situation is very much a possibility that needs to be discussed.  

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12 minutes ago, chw42 said:

OD roster:

1. SS Anderson
2. RF Nimmo (L)
3. CF Robert
4. DH Jimenez
5. 1B Vaughn
6. 3B Moncada (S)
7. LF Pollock
8. C Garandal (S)
9. 2B Andrus 

BN - Sheets (L)
BN - Garcia (S)
BN - Zavala
BN - Payton (L)

SP1 - Cease
SP2 - Lynn
SP3 - Giolito
SP4 - Kopech
SP5 - Manaea (L)

LR Foster
MR Lambert
MR Kelly
MR Diekman (L)
MR Lopez
SU Bummer (L)
SU Graveman
CP Hendriks

Total payroll: $195 million

You streteching Crochet out to be a SP in the minors I take it?  

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

If you read my first post, you will see that I agree.  I don't want to Sox to re-sign Abreu.  But this is the White Sox, the most loyal sports organization in the world and Pito has never worn another jersey, and our owner loves him.  So until he signs elsewhere, the Sox totally botching this situation is very much a possibility that needs to be discussed.  

I do agree with you and I understand your "Sox" logic.  I was just posting the question in general to everyone.  

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Sox desperately need to find a second baseman that can hit RHP.  I like Romy as a utility bat that can hit LHP, but do you really trust him to be able to face tough RHP?  The Guardians and their stable of great RHP are going nowhere.

Depending on what they do with the Abreu situation and the outfield, they may have to stay in house for 2B.

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1 minute ago, Superstar Lamar said:

Nimmo is a nice player but you would be buying in to another guy who has missed a lot of time to injuries

Yeah Nimmo is a good bet to miss at least 40 games a year. He's been pretty healthy this year but he actually just got hurt a few days ago. 

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4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Sox desperately need to find a second baseman that can hit RHP.  I like Romy as a utility bat that can hit LHP, but do you really trust him to be able to face tough RHP?  The Guardians and their stable of great RHP are going nowhere.

You think Milwaukee will trade Wong this off-season? 

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