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Your 2023 Off-Season Plan


ChiSox59
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11 minutes ago, T R U said:

If the Sox are still going for it, which I no doubt believe they will, then this is what I am doing assuming Rick Hahn knows that his chances are probably up if he fails again. Provided some of these guys bounce back and aren't actually cooked and we have a competent manager, this is easily the favorite for the division in 2023.

Vaughn and Montgomery packaged in some way to get Burnes from Milwaukee.

1. Cease

2. Burnes

3. Lynn

4. Kopech

5. Giolito

6. Martin

 

With just Sheets and Garcia on the bench, we would need catcher and another OF as well.

C - Grandal

1B - Abreu

2B - Sosa

3B - Moncada

SS - Anderson

LF  - Pollock

CF - Robert

RF - Colas

DH - Jimenez

 

I agree that Vaughn+ is traded either to fill LF or SP.  

 

In your example that gets us Burnes but leaves us with Pollack which I view as unacceptable.  Would they have enough money to sign a really good LFer?

 

I think I’d rather trade for the stud LFer and pay Rodon.  I would think there would be way more of a prospect premium to trade for stud pitcher than the stud LFer

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17 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I agree that Vaughn+ is traded either to fill LF or SP.  

 

In your example that gets us Burnes but leaves us with Pollack which I view as unacceptable.  Would they have enough money to sign a really good LFer?

 

I think I’d rather trade for the stud LFer and pay Rodon.  I would think there would be way more of a prospect premium to trade for stud pitcher than the stud LFer

The answer to the first depends on what the salary limit is. The White Sox are most likely around $25 million under their current 2022 payroll, give or take minor tweaks and arbitration numbers for everyone.

Burnes is Arbitration-2, so he'll get a raise on the $6.5 million he earns this year, let's say $8.5 million to be conservative. If Abreu then gets $11.5 million to make the numbers round - that leaves about $5 million left over under the 2022 payroll, which is clearly not enough for a stud LF unless they trade for one.

If the true payroll limit was the Luxury tax ($217 million or so counting benefits), that would leave them another $20 million to use on top of the $5 million I just left, and that would be sufficient to sign a top flight LF.  I don't believe any OF going to get vastly over $20 million per year this year other than a fairly tall guy from the Yankees. 

Alternatively, if Rodon were to be at $25 million a year - signing him would basically leave the White Sox's payroll for 2023 at the 2022 level, with no moves made for LF, and with Abreu removed. In that case, they would still have Vaughn at 1b and probably about $20 million remaining under the tax line (maybe a little less if Rodon's salary is higher than that) - it would be a challenge to fit the best LF on the free agent market in under that, but you might get away with a Benintendi under that number. The other option in that case would be to trade for a young LF and pay the prospect price. 

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49 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert are the White Sox's main 5th/6th starter options and they're each getting 20 or more starts, I wouldn't have a lot of confidence in the 2023 season. If they throw in another 5th starter type, at least yeah I'd feel better a tiny bit, but what are the odds that is a step down from the current rotation with Cueto? The rotation is already, to me, not good enough to compete with Cleveland, and swapping Cueto and Velasquez for Chris Archer or Chad Kuhl seems like a downgrade on paper. 

Again, I don't disagree with the state of the pitching.  I just don't think it's in the org's best interests for Hahn to trade for a starter, particularly at this stage with his  "last stand" vibes. (I don't see any reason to take a "last stand" approach in 2023). Now, if he's going to get creative and really shake things up and move some of the "core" and bring in a new "core" (relatively young players) then okay.  But his MO is young for old.  He's likely to trade our young players or best prospects for some veteran with 2 years left, near 30, showing some subtle signs of decline, that a savvy team is peddling before he hits the floor.

As or Davis Martin, I don't know what next year holds, but this year he was as good as any starter we had this side of Cease.  He threw strikes, and gave up maybe a homer per 9.  Not high K numbers, so maybe he got lucky; but maybe not.  But he's the kind of guy Hahn would trade.

Edited by GreenSox
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13 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Again, I don't disagree with the state of the pitching.  I just don't think it's in the org's best interests for Hahn to trade for a starter, particularly at this stage with his  "last stand" vibes. (I don't see any reason to take a "last stand" approach in 2023). Now, if he's going to get creative and really shake things up and move some of the "core" and bring in a new "core" (relatively young players) then okay.  But his MO is young for old.  He's likely to trade our young players or best prospects for some veteran with 2 years left, near 30, showing some subtle signs of decline, that a savvy team is peddling before he hits the floor.

As or Davis Martin, I don't know what next year holds, but this year he was as good as any starter we had this side of Cease.  He threw strikes, and gave up maybe a homer per 9.  Not high K numbers, so maybe he got lucky; but maybe not.  But he's the kind of guy Hahn would trade.

If Martin is in the 6th starter role, I think he's likely to get what, 20, 25 starts if he stays healthy with this staff? Maybe even a good shot at breaking camp with the team. He has minor league options remaining, so that's plenty of work to see if he can build into something. If his next year isn't good enough, that's a role that has the potential to cost the White Sox the division, but he's pitched well enough this year to at least get a look in that role. Can't have an all star everywhere.

Lambert - I think it's time to try him in the bullpen from day 1. They clearly need the bullpen arms out there and he had more success as a bullpen arm than as a starter. Plus, he also has options, so if he's starting the season as a bullpen arm and a whole bunch of people come back healthy for a short time, he can be moved up and down as a depth piece.

Still leaves me needing a starter just to get back to Cueto level somewhere. 

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On 9/23/2022 at 7:06 PM, pcq said:

Keep Moncada??? They have no  choice. He is Alex Rios with endless injuries. He is barely competent. 

It's strange that the "endless injuries" narrative sticks to Moncada but not other players on the roster. Moncada has played 51 (likely to end the season at 53) more games than TA dating back to 2019. He has essentially the same fWAR as Abreu over that same time span. This is the first season of Moncada's career where he's been unavailable for an extended period of time.

Edited by maxjusttyped
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55 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I agree that Vaughn+ is traded either to fill LF or SP.  

 

In your example that gets us Burnes but leaves us with Pollack which I view as unacceptable.  Would they have enough money to sign a really good LFer?

 

I think I’d rather trade for the stud LFer and pay Rodon.  I would think there would be way more of a prospect premium to trade for stud pitcher than the stud LFer

In my scenario, we did not shed any salary and therefor are not able to afford a really good OFer.

The trade off is we acquired a really good pitcher and hope Pollock can be passable.

Anyway you look at it, the White Sox will not be signing a stud anything unless they jettison Abreu plus to create that room and at that point you are only opening more holes that you cant afford to fill.

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3 minutes ago, T R U said:

In my scenario, we did not shed any salary and therefor are not able to afford a really good OFer.

The trade off is we acquired a really good pitcher and hope Pollock can be passable.

Anyway you look at it, the White Sox will not be signing a stud anything unless they jettison Abreu plus to create that room and at that point you are only opening more holes that you cant afford to fill.

Jettisoning Abreu doesn’t create a hole. It solves a major problem. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Jettisoning Abreu doesn’t create a hole. It solves a major problem. 

There is no scenario where you jettison your best player and leader and that solves a problem on the roster.

 

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Just now, T R U said:

There is no scenario where you jettison your best player and leader and that solves a problem on the roster.

 

I don’t think he’s the best player nor was he much of a leader this year. If you can’t see that Abreu causes this roster major issues, I don’t know what to tell you. I love Jose. It’s nothing against him. AV is 10 years younger, cheaper and needs to play 1B. Sox need to invest Abreu $ in an actual corner OF that bats left handed. It’s pretty simple, really. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I don’t think he’s the best player nor was he much of a leader this year. If you can’t see that Abreu causes this roster major issues, I don’t know what to tell you. I love Jose. It’s nothing against him. AV is 10 years younger, cheaper and needs to play 1B. Sox need to invest Abreu $ in an actual corner OF that bats left handed. It’s pretty simple, really. 

Abreu isn't personally causing this roster any issues, the collection of 1B/DH players are what is causing issues. Jose Abreu was literally the most valuable batter we had on this roster, considerably more valuable than Andrew Vaughn.

The window is now, and its closing. If you are serious about trying to win RIGHT NOW its not logical at all to let Abreu walk. Sticking Vaughn at 1B full time isn't going to magically make him a 4-5 WAR player.

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1 minute ago, T R U said:

Abreu isn't personally causing this roster any issues, the collection of 1B/DH players are what is causing issues. Jose Abreu was literally the most valuable batter we had on this roster, considerably more valuable than Andrew Vaughn.

The window is now, and its closing. If you are serious about trying to win RIGHT NOW its not logical at all to let Abreu walk. Sticking Vaughn at 1B full time isn't going to magically make him a 4-5 WAR player.

I disagree that it’s not logical to let him walk. What’s not logical is paying Jose Abreu 50% if the money we have to spend on the 2023 roster and continuing to act like this roster as contracted is one that can compete without major improvements to defense and lineup balance. Retaining Jose makes that improvement nearly impossible without a major increase to payroll, which we all know isn’t happening.  

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Trading Vaughn is selling low.  Let him play his position for a year and see what we have.  
While SP may be a need, an ace like Burns is not a top need because we have an ace and because we have no LF or RF and the starting staff is still probably thin.  And Burns will cost us Montgomery and/or Colas as well.  And for what - to "go for it" when we have Graveman, Diekman and Kelly in the pen, and, as I read on here, Pollock  (yikes!) in the OF? (are the Sox really going with Pollock?)
Trading young players is what caused this whole mess, and what causes the mess to persist for a decade.


 

Edited by GreenSox
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13 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Trading Vaughn is selling low.  Let him play his position for a year and see what we have.  
While SP may be a need, an ace like Burns is not a top need because we have an ace and because we have no LF or RF and the starting staff is still probably thin.  And Burns will cost us Montgomery and/or Colas as well.  And for what - to "go for it" when we have Graveman, Diekman and Kelly in the pen, and, as I read on here, Pollock  (yikes!) in the OF? (are the Sox really going with Pollock?)
Trading young players is what caused this whole mess, and what causes the mess to persist for a decade.


 

"We don't need an ace because we have one."

"All right, 3 game series against Cleveland for the division. Bieber is in game 3 so we got this. Game 2 is...Mckenzie? Oh, that might not go well."

"Oh hello Houston's playoff rotation. So let's see, game 1 is Verlander at least you have only 1 ace. Game 2 is...McCullers? Oh."

 

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39 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Trading young players is what caused this whole mess, and what causes the mess to persist for a decade.

^ This! 

(2022 bWAR / 2023 Salary)

Gone (2.7 bWAR / $8.0M-$9.0M): 

  • SP Dane Dunning (1.2 bWAR / $0.7M)
  • SP/RP Konnor Pilkington (-0.1 bWAR / $0.7M)
  • RP Codi Heuer (Injured / Arb1)
  • 2B Nick Madrigal (0.7 bWAR / Arb1)
  • C Reese McGuire (0.9 bWAR) / Arb1)

Trade bounty (0.8 bWAR / $37.0M):

  • SP Lance Lynn (0.7 bWAR / $19.5M)
  • CF/LF AJ Pollock (0.9 bWAR / $13.0M)
  • RP Jake Diekman (-0.8 bWAR / $4.5M)

Free Agents (-0.4 bWAR / $56.1M): (+ $28.5M in 2024):

  • C Yasmani Grandal (-1.5 bWAR / $18.3M)
  • RP Liam Hendriks (1.7 bWAR / $14.3M)
  • RP Kendall Graveman (0.9 bWAR / $8.0M)
  • RP Joe Kelly (-0.6 bWAR / $9.0M)
  • INF/OF Leury Garcia (-0.9 bWAR / $5.5M)

 

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don’t think he’s the best player nor was he much of a leader this year. If you can’t see that Abreu causes this roster major issues, I don’t know what to tell you. I love Jose. It’s nothing against him. AV is 10 years younger, cheaper and needs to play 1B. Sox need to invest Abreu $ in an actual corner OF that bats left handed. It’s pretty simple, really. 

Sheets 370 ab 15 hr, .708 OPS (2022); 530 ab, 26 hr, .745 OPS (career)

Vaughn 506 ab, 17 hr, .756 OPS (2022); 923 ab, 32 hr, .733 OPS (career)

Abreu 598 ab, 15 hr, .823 OPS (2022)

Eloy 289 ab, 16 hr, .854 OPS (2022)

if you are contending in 2023 or 2024, who should be the odd man out?

 

Edited by soxfaninfl
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9 minutes ago, soxfaninfl said:

Sheets 530 ab, 26 hr, .745 OPS

Vaughn 506 ab, 17 hr, .756 OPS

Abreu 598 ab, 15 hr, .823 OPS

Eloy 289 ab, 16 hr, .854 OPS

if you are contending in 2023 or 2024, who should be the odd man out?

 

Why are you looking at 2 years of data for one player and one for the other?

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12 minutes ago, soxfaninfl said:

Sheets 530 ab, 26 hr, .745 OPS

Vaughn 506 ab, 17 hr, .756 OPS

Abreu 598 ab, 15 hr, .823 OPS

Eloy 289 ab, 16 hr, .854 OPS

if you are contending in 2023 or 2024, who should be the odd man out?

 

What kind of numbers are these?

Gavin Sheets isn't even a real major league starter (only on a severely flawed team), took him two net negative WAR seasons of 176 games to reach 26 HRs. He should be in AAA for depth.

People keep wishing Eloy is not playing LF next year. He is only DHing now because he is crippled. The Sox will once again send Eloy to LF next season.

That leaves Abreu to play 1B and Vaughn to DH and begin to learn / determine if his body type is able to play 1B successfully.

 

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Why are you looking at 2 years of data for one player and one for the other?

Because I was thinking one thing and decided to go a different route. Just showing last 500+ ABs for the first two and competing thoughts intervened. Just feel we are overvaluing Andrew right now and just saying he should have 1B, to me, is still a big question mark.

 

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12 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

What kind of numbers are these?

Gavin Sheets isn't even a real major league starter (only on a severely flawed team), took him two net negative WAR seasons of 176 games to reach 26 HRs. He should be in AAA for depth.

People keep wishing Eloy is not playing LF next year. He is only DHing now because he is crippled. The Sox will once again send Eloy to LF next season.

That leaves Abreu to play 1B and Vaughn to DH and begin to learn / determine if his body type is able to play 1B successfully.

 

 

I agree your scenario is as likely as any but my point was not to elevate Gavin. My response was to a question about the hole an Abreu departure would leave and the overvaluing of AV.

Andrew can and will probably be a very productive hitter but he is also not your prototypical 1B. Also, his own WAR is not lighting up the league (0 this year), perhaps a product of playing the OF but 1B is also a power position.

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29 minutes ago, soxfaninfl said:

Sheets 530 ab, 26 hr, .745 OPS

Vaughn 506 ab, 17 hr, .756 OPS

Abreu 598 ab, 15 hr, .823 OPS

Eloy 289 ab, 16 hr, .854 OPS

if you are contending in 2023 or 2024, who should be the odd man out?

 

Sheets and the soon to be FA 36 year old. 

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3 minutes ago, soxfaninfl said:

I agree your scenario is as likely as any but my point was not to elevate Gavin. My response was to a question about the hole an Abreu departure would leave and the overvaluing of AV.

Andrew can and will probably be a very productive hitter but he is also not your prototypical 1B. Also, his own WAR is not lighting up the league (0 this year), perhaps a product of playing the OF but 1B is also a power position.

Perhaps? It’s fully a product of playing the OF. He’s a well above average hitter even with the cold streak the last few weeks. 

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