13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

To finish the important part here, there is about zero chance that Cueto's 23 is as good as his 22.  The last time Cueto was this good was 2016.  What is crazy is that Cueto's 2022 saw an insanely low HR rate despite his K rate being the lowest of his entire career.  It was also the first time he has been over 140 innings since 2016.  There are a lot of red flags here screaming fluke.

Exactly. And that's why if you are going to claim Clevinger has no chance in 2023 of putting up the type of season Cueto had last year, then there was also zero chance of Cueto putting up that type of season coming out of 2021. And we already saw that is was, in fact, possible.

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Trading GIolito now would be a mistake. At this point, you ride with him and hope he bounces back and if he walks he walks. 

Gio had a down year, but he was also one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, if not the unluckiest. His FIP was still sitting right around 4. his xFIP was 3.66, his BABIP against was 340. Some of the home run issues were self inflicted, sure... he made a lot of bad pitches, but those aren't always going to get hit out. I think a little change to his sequencing, a little work on his slider/curve in the off-season, and expecting him to come back as a 3.5-3.6 FIP/ERA guy next year is much more likely than him having a 4.9 ERA again imo.

We also could help him out a ton by getting him an OF who can catch the damned ball.

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Exactly.  They signed a guy who has zero chance of being as good as the guy was he's replacing.  What else ya got, Hahn. 

Saying Clevinger has a zero % chance of producing a 2.4 WAR in 158 innings seems like quite the stretch. Is it unlikely? Sure. Is it a zero % chance? Well I'd certainly bet into that line.

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

For the record, since 2017, which includes Clevingers last TJS, Johnny Cueto has put up 7.8 WAR, or 1.3 per season. Clevinger has put up 14.2, or about 2.5 including the seasons he missed due to his surgery.  During that time frame he has put up two seasons with a higher WAR than Cueto did in 2022 at his recent peak.

Think the concern is a second TJ, especially for a guy post-30, is pretty risky. No guarantee he ever bounces back.

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Saying Clevinger has a zero % chance of producing a 2.4 WAR in 158 innings seems like quite the stretch. Is it unlikely? Sure. Is it a zero % chance? Well I'd certainly bet into that line.

Especially since if you go back over 2017 to 2022 Clevinger has averaged about 2.5 war per season, even including the surgery years.

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Think the concern is a second TJ, especially for a guy post-30, is pretty risky. No guarantee he ever bounces back.

Nothing is ever 100%, but that goes both ways.  There is probably a better chance that Cueto goes back to what he was, than Clevinger not being able to put up 5th starter numbers.

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Nothing is ever 100%, but that goes both ways.  There is probably a better chance that Cueto goes back to what he was, than Clevinger not being able to put up 5th starter numbers.

The last 272 innings, Cueto has produced a FIP just under 4. There's something about aging pitchers renaissances that I buy into a little more than bats. Savvy pitchers can get by in different ways. I don't know what the odds in regards to who has the better season in 2023, but I'd say it's a lot closer to 50/50 than many are giving Cueto credit for here.

That said, the SOx are clearly banking on the higher upside in Clevinger. Whether that's the right choice or not, who knows. THey have a lot of holes though and going from Cueto to Clevinger likely won't be the thing that sinks there season so probably not worthy of any kinds of panic or frustrationg.

Clevinger was actually pretty good until September. His bad September and October probably cost him a chance at a multi-year deal. 

Being that it's his first year back from TJS, it could be that he just fatigued late in the season. He's got a 114 inning base to work from for 2023, so if he stays healthy, I don't think fatigue will settle in until the 150+ inning mark. 

The glass half empty take on it is that his decline in September and October are a sign of a further decline. That might be why he only got $8 million. Teams could be skeptical of how his arm will hold up. 

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The last 272 innings, Cueto has produced a FIP just under 4. There's something about aging pitchers renaissances that I buy into a little more than bats. Savvy pitchers can get by in different ways. I don't know what the odds in regards to who has the better season in 2023, but I'd say it's a lot closer to 50/50 than many are giving Cueto credit for here.

That said, the SOx are clearly banking on the higher upside in Clevinger. Whether that's the right choice or not, who knows. THey have a lot of holes though and going from Cueto to Clevinger likely won't be the thing that sinks there season so probably not worthy of any kinds of panic or frustrationg.

That's for sure.  Next season is all about Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, and Tim Anderson doing what they should be doing at this stage of their careers. 

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Exactly.  They signed a guy who has zero chance of being as good as the guy was he's replacing.  What else ya got, Hahn. 

For a guy who acts like he knows everything, you really don’t know much of anything.

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

For a guy who acts like he knows everything, you really don’t know much of anything.

Hahn is due for one of these $8-10 million acquisitions to actually work out and not suck so bad. We will see. What I do disagree with with Harold here is the zero percent chance. He has a non zero percent chance to be as good as Cueto was in 2022, but it's clearly doubtful or he wouldn't be available at the price the Sox paid. I don't think Cueto can replicated his 2022 numbers, so if they are picking between the 2, this is fine. But the rotation on paper  still isn't better than it was at the end of the 2022 season. 

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Nothing is ever 100%, but that goes both ways.  There is probably a better chance that Cueto goes back to what he was, than Clevinger not being able to put up 5th starter numbers.

I am in the Cueto camp. Because recency bias is sometimes warranted just by the inherent recency. Anyway,  there are a million permutations and combinations possible. But if Clevinger’s velocity remains down, that distills the possibilities down quite a bit. If I had to distill my own concerns, they consisted of 2.
 

Clevinger’s  recent velocity drop

Clevinger’s age of recovery from TJ

 

His lack of serious interest around a  league desperate for pitching probably verifies the concern(s). I mean, I don’t know what Cueto is gonna get. But if its a better offer than Clevinger, it feels like the thinking in front offices right now.

19 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

For a guy who acts like he knows everything, you really don’t know much of anything.

Bowden now saying guarantee is $12M. So perhaps there is a club option?

 

39 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The last 272 innings, Cueto has produced a FIP just under 4. There's something about aging pitchers renaissances that I buy into a little more than bats. Savvy pitchers can get by in different ways. I don't know what the odds in regards to who has the better season in 2023, but I'd say it's a lot closer to 50/50 than many are giving Cueto credit for here.

That said, the SOx are clearly banking on the higher upside in Clevinger. Whether that's the right choice or not, who knows. THey have a lot of holes though and going from Cueto to Clevinger likely won't be the thing that sinks there season so probably not worthy of any kinds of panic or frustrationg.

Agree a lot. But the Sox are banking in a lower price tag imo more than upside. Which appears not very much believable considering the price tag.

 

I like Cueto here, because he’s been getting by by being a pitcher more than with stuff, which could be easier to replicate than finding old pre-surgery stuff.

2 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

Here's to hoping we have more than $180 million to spend, cause Hahn just spent 60% of it on a 5th starter. 

Edited November 28, 20223 yr by chw42

1 minute ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

This actually gives me more hope. 8 million really tampered my excitement response if that was all he could attract. Good news.

Just now, chw42 said:

Here's to hoping we have more than $180 to spend, cause Hahn just spent 60% of it on a 5th starter. 

I'm hoping they're wrong about that number. Woof.

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

I'm hoping they're wrong about that number. Woof.

Maybe a $1 year $10 million deal with a $2 million buyout on his option? 

2 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:

This actually gives me more hope. 8 million really tampered my excitement response if that was all he could attract. Good news.

I kind of agree with you. $12 million makes it seem like other teams were at least interested. $8 million deals are reserved for guys that teams sign for back end rotation depth towards the end of free agency. That being said, this is the Sox, and they might have just decided to set the market for back end rotation starters...in November. I think a fair deal for Clevinger was probably like 1 year $10 million. $12 million does seem like a slight overpay. 

4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I'm hoping they're wrong about that number. Woof.

I am not going to assume $200M but I am also not going to just assume they are cutting payroll either. Lets see what actually happens.  Plus - if they move Moncada or Hendricks - they could get a lot more creative.  

2 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Maybe a $1 year $10 million deal with a $2 million buyout on his option? 

Yeah, I think that makes sense.  Hoping for that because I like the deal a bit less at $12M as opposed to $8M.  Still think its a solid add, but definitely not the bargain it felt like at $8M.

Sox also going to need some SP for 2024 with Lynn, Gio and now Clevinger all only controlled thru 23, and not much of any upper minors SP depth. 

17 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Here's to hoping we have more than $180 million to spend, cause Hahn just spent 60% of it on a 5th starter. 

I mean, considering the names out there we’ve been talking about for the spending, I’d prefer just to use call ups to fill the holes. I media gave  me better options, we can have a different discussion of spending preferences.

Edited November 28, 20223 yr by Chick Mercedes

Given how much relievers were getting, 8 million would have seemed way too low