Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said: I think that’s why the Baltimore posters are so eager to trade Ortiz because his value will continue to get dinged the longer he stays in the minors at age 26-27. Which is understandable. But thinking he could headline a Cease trade certainly is not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, almagest said: Yes, this is all hypothetical. We have moved past that point. You're not making the point you think you are bringing this up constantly. Cowser + Ortiz + a mid top 30 org list guy is much more intriguing, I'll give you that. An Ortiz headliner is a non-starter, though. To your last point - I watched Dylan Cease all last year and saw how he looked more like a mid-rotation pitcher with inconsistent command and reduced fastball velocity, until he turned it around in September and looked like his 2022 form again. But I wouldn't expect you to know that. The problem is ….. You guys talked about the Yankees earlier in this thread. They don’t have a Top 50 prospect in their system. They have 73-75 and 95 ….. but in your eyes the #50 prospect is a nonstarter? I guess the Yankees are out then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Tnetennba said: Which is understandable. But thinking he could headline a Cease trade certainly is not. Quote You guys talked about the Yankees earlier in this thread. They don’t have a Top 50 prospect in their system. They have 73-75 and 95 ….. but in your eyes the #50 prospect is a nonstarter? I guess the Yankees are out then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Sports Guy said: A consistent theme we have seen is people saying, well just trade Mayo or Basallo because “you have other guys”. It’s like the people who say billionaires should pay a higher percentage of their money for taxes because “they can afford it”. That’s a very screwy analogy. Teams decide what prospects they’ll give up in a trade. Billionaires don’t decide what their tax rates should be. At least, not directly. They bribe politicians to do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said: I think that’s why the Baltimore posters are so eager to trade Ortiz because his value will continue to get dinged the longer he stays in the minors at age 26-27. Exactly. The dude will turn 26 in July. Of course he’s the first “prospect” Orioles fans suggest dealing. It’s laughable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Sider Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, almagest said: Quintana was also in the midst of a pretty rough season when he was traded, and that was worth #12 and #77 on MLB's list. Thanks for the context sir. AND he had way more downside risk (in my opinion) than Cease does, a risk he also kind of realized. What it takes to obtain Cease is to blow Getz away with an offer. The BAL guy here doesn't get that, and keeps saying this dude and that dude are untouchable. Guys like Cease aren't always available, and he does not HAVE to be traded. Him being available in the first place negates any "untouchable" labels put on any prospect. BAL offering a bunch of mid and one pretty OK prospects and not budging "because no one has offered better" isn't going to get it done. Blowing Getz away gets it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Sider Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: A HUGE difference with Quintana though...when traded, Quintana was under contract and controlled for 3.5 years. That's Luis Robert's control level (as of this year's trade deadline). True enough but Quintana, while good, didn't have lockdown ace potential upside and carried significant downside risk. He basically never pitched up to his Sox stats with the Cubs, if I recall correctly (too lazy to look it up) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Sider Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, almagest said: Which is why most of the Sox fan proposals here are looking at prospects ranked lower than Eloy's #12 as the headliner. Orioles have #14, #24, #27 & #46 on MLB's 2023 list. Starting with #14 sounds fair. Who is that? 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: Age matters. I doubt the Sox would want a turning 26 year old Joey Ortiz as a headliner over 22 year old Jasson Dominguez. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: The problem is ….. You guys talked about the Yankees earlier in this thread. They don’t have a Top 50 prospect in their system. They have 73-75 and 95 ….. but in your eyes the #50 prospect is a nonstarter? I guess the Yankees are out then? I haven't looked too deeply at their prospects so I can't say how I'd feel about them, but a 26 year old SS with hitting concerns whose clock has already started is just not a compelling primary piece for this org, and might also be beaten as a secondary piece, even from an org with prospects below him, because we have Montgomery poised to take over at SS this or next year. Blocking Ortiz or shifting him over to 3B where his hitting concerns would be even more apparent seems like a waste of Cease's value. We could also try Ortiz at 2B but that's a less premium defensive position and I don't know if it's worth wasting his glove there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: And? I'm not overly enamored with the Yank's system. But a 26 y/o headliner is a non-starter for me no matter the ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, almagest said: After taking a look I completely agree. Ortiz probably slots in between 3-5, depending on how Quero's 2023 is viewed, and most of the other names mentioned are probably 9 or below on our top 30. That's some nice potential depth but depth on a prospect list isn't gonna move the needle. They also don't have anyone in the back half of the top 100 and that's concerning both for their depth and for a trade that doesn't include one of their top 5. LOL ….. you’re funny. Ortiz would be 2,3, or 4 as your 2 and 3 are also graded 55. Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers all grad 50 as do Gonzalez, Eder, and Nastrini (#4-#6). Everyone else in your system is graded 45 or lower. So obviously they could fall in anywhere from 4 to 7 as Ramos is the next tier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: In addition to Ortiz 55, all of Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers are all graded 50 by MLB. So they could possibly slot in your top 5. There is no sense debating Gonzalez and Eder versus them. You guys underrate Ortiz because he’s a glove first guy (that Getz supposedly is focused on) and underrate Norby be a he’s a bat first player. For me …..Ortiz really didn’t get a shot to play when he was here this year, Norby hasn’t gotten a shot. And all I’ve said about Povich is that there isn’t a hell of a lot of difference IMO between Hampton and Warren vs McDermott and Povich. Our top five would be the following IMO: Colson Montgomery, SS (60 FV) Noah Schultz, LHP (55 FV) Edgar Quero, CA (50 FV) Bryan Ramos, 3B (50 FV) Nick Nastrini, RHP (50 FV) Norby doesn’t have a position and I have seen this profile fail all too many times before (see Willie Calhoun for example). Bradfield is a fine prospect but one without any upper minors experience. I do like Beavers a lot, probably more than most of your prospects outside your top 5. But gun to head, I’d slot Ortiz in after Quero and Beavers in after Ramos or Nastrini. Norby would be outside my top 10…just not a fan. The bulk of these guys are solid prospects, but 50 FV guys bust at incredibly high rates and Getz will want one 55 FV or higher prospect to headline the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Age matters. I doubt the Sox would want a turning 26 year old Joey Ortiz as a headliner over 22 year old Jasson Dominguez. Age and tools matter when searching for foundational pieces. Ortiz is not that to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Tnetennba said: And? I'm not overly enamored with the Yank's system. But a 26 y/o headliner is a non-starter for me no matter the ranking. Noted …. BTW, Ortiz is 25 so it’s interesting that we’re rounding up to try to lessen the value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) I do find it odd that Ortiz didn't get a shot over someone like Westburg since he's aging out of prospect status. Assuming he isn't traded and Holliday isn't ready, that's probably the opening day shortstop. Edit: meant ready not traded. Edited January 5 by Bob Sacamano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Rolle Tide said: LOL ….. you’re funny. Ortiz would be 2,3, or 4 as your 2 and 3 are also graded 55. Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers all grad 50 as do Gonzalez, Eder, and Nastrini (#4-#6). Everyone else in your system is graded 45 or lower. So obviously they could fall in anywhere from 4 to 7 as Ramos is the next tier. I said 3-5 for Ortiz so I don't know what's so funny. We're right in the same range. Schultz is a FV 55 because he's younger and has more risk, but the upside is incredibly high. He's likely higher on the 2024 list than Ortiz - he's 31 on Baseball America's 2023 list. Gonzalez is a 2023 first round pick so he's probably ranked higher than Norby, Bradfield and Beavers by pedigree. Most Sox fans are bearish on him, though, as he really struggled at the plate. Those three you mentioned could slot in that 4-7 range, but everyone else that's been mentioned would not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southwest Sider Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) Imagine BAL: Hey we want to trade for Cease Getz: Awesome, I was thinking the package could start with Holliday. BAL: Sorry, he's untouchable Getz: OK, how about Coby Mayo? BAL: We would trade him but not for Cease, he's too premium of a prospect. Getz: Weird... okay what about Kjerstad? BAL: Sorry, he's untouchable. Getz: OK, what about Cowser and/or Basallo? BAL: YEhhh.. maybe? ...But we think they are untouchable, can I interest you Joey Ortiz though? Getz: ...K bye. Edited January 5 by Southwest Sider 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy U Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: I do find it odd that Ortiz didn't get a shot over someone like Westburg since he's aging out of prospect status. Assuming he isn't traded and Holliday isn't ready, that's probably the opening day shortstop. Gunnar Henderson says hi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: Noted …. BTW, Ortiz is 25 so it’s interesting that we’re rounding up to try to lessen the value. He'll be 26 midway through the 2024 season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think you guys have elevated these prospects to levels above their true worth. If you were to exclude your top five, I think Joey Ortiz is the only one who would be in our top five. Norby & Povich in particular are so overrated by you guys it’s not even funny. And the bulk of your fans don’t have any sense of expected bust rates for this next tier of prospects…which is incredibly high and makes them much less valuable than you think. Rolle Tide is at the far end of the O fan spectrum in not being willing to include Kjerstad or Cowser in a Cease trade. But who cares, it’s what Elias thinks, not what Rolle Tide, Sports Guy or Frobby thinks. Regarding your general point about O’s fans not appreciating the bust rate of prospects, there’s probably some truth there currently. Elias has had a very nice run of success with his prospects and draft picks the last couple of years, so now there’s this feeling that every one of them will succeed, which is unrealistic. I do think the O’s have a superb player development system right now, that probably will yield a higher success rate than many other organizations. Believe me, O’s fans have seen the other side of that equation for a couple of decades before Elias was hired. But nobody bats 1.000 when it comes to highly ranked prospects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Timmy U said: Gunnar Henderson says hi. At 3B sure. Like I clearly stated: what about 2B? Referring back to last season, seems like they could have played him and showcased him to deal this off-season. Now he's just going to age off of being a prospect. Edit: oh wait, you mean Gunnar for SS next year. Point still stands: he can play 3B then until Holliday is ready. Urias (wasn't that good last year) and Mateo (utility player at best) shouldn't block any of the younger guys from playing. Edited January 5 by Bob Sacamano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: Noted …. BTW, Ortiz is 25 so it’s interesting that we’re rounding up to try to lessen the value. Incorrect. That's simply an error on my part. Its cute though that you're speaking to my motivations when you haven't a clue. In a vacuum, Ortiz has top 50 value, but I'm looking at him in context of building the Sox roster of the future. As the headliner, he's a non-starter, as a 2nd or 3rd piece, he becomes more interesting. I just don't think he's a valuable enough piece to headline a Cease deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Man after reading about Basallo it sounds like he has a ton of potential but he's only 19 and he's got the dreaded "as his body fills out he might find himself at first base" attached to him. Still pretty incredible to be in the top 50 at 19 but man I would be super nervous about that profile as a headliner. He's got a TON of risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Our top five would be the following IMO: Colson Montgomery, SS (60 FV) Noah Schultz, LHP (55 FV) Edgar Quero, CA (50 FV) Bryan Ramos, 3B (50 FV) Nick Nastrini, RHP (50 FV) Norby doesn’t have a position and I have seen this profile fail all too many times before (see Willie Calhoun for example). Bradfield is a fine prospect but one without any upper minors experience. I do like Beavers a lot, probably more than most of your prospects outside your top 5. But gun to head, I’d slot Ortiz in after Quero and Beavers in after Ramos or Nastrini. Norby would be outside my top 10…just not a fan. The bulk of these guys are solid prospects, but 50 FV guys bust at incredibly high rates and Getz will want one 55 FV or higher prospect to headline the deal. Ortiz is a 55 based on MLB.com. I’d prefer to use their ranking system to a guy arguing the side of a trade. I mean if we just make it about these conversations will really get ridiculous. After all we aren’t professionals, just guys talking on a fan site right? BTW, the Top 100 has Montgomery at #17 and Schultz at #61. So in their opinion Ortiz would be the #2 prospect in your system. Noby needs a position which is why they are trying him in LF. Most prospect sites agree that his bat will play in the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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