Sports Guy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said: We're referring to teams that are in the playoff hunt trading for him at the deadline. I'm not talking about just having him for post-season, but the chase for the second half included. You're clearly misunderstanding. No, the point about less service time means he’s less valuable. Just because he’s postseason eligible for you twice doesn’t mean that’s the only thing that matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The Orioles have considered every starter from Marcus Stroman on down (they couldn’t seriously consider Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery “unless the market collapsed.”) Baltimore also has been eying James Paxton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Sports Guy said: No, the point about less service time means he’s less valuable. Just because he’s postseason eligible for you twice doesn’t mean that’s the only thing that matters. Agree to disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'm not that surprised by this. I was worried by how many pretty good pitchers there were. Problem to me is for Playoff teams looking to get over the hump, you are either a top ten pitcher or you are in a lump of pitchers where teams can squint at someone else and say they could get the same out of you. When you are a true top player, offseason is way to go for trades. Otherwise it's mid-season where you aren't competing with FA options. I also don't think teams necessarily want to pay for control (controversial opinion but I think it's true). Hope situation changes, as there is a lot of risk here. But clearly Cease could have been traded for Busch and...not the rest of guys. Or Vaughn and...not their other top prospect. Neither what you should hope for. Perhaps that's what we'll see, that Cease can net a guy, and then some 15-25 org prospects. Not sure. Balta can probably do a victory lap though, I don't see things changing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Heyman also has article saying Cleveland unlikely to trade Bieber with chance to win central Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) Hopefully he pitches more like 2022 Dylan. I guess this gives us another reason to care about games. Edited January 12 by Bob Sacamano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: Agree to disagree. What exactly do you disagree with you? You think his value doesn’t changed with 20 less starts that the acquiring team gets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: So if you do this, what is the thought process behind it? Play things out for a moment. We can all agree, I think, that if Cease has a really good first half that he will be worth as much, if not more, than he is now. We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb. So, a scenario does exist where he is worth as much if not more. But that’s the absolute best case, everything goes perfect scenario. It’s possible but is it likely? Now, play out other scenarios….he gets hurt and you get nothing. He has similar results in 2024 as he had in 2023 only now he has less service time and he is now even further removed from 2022. Let’s say the results are only slightly better than 2023 but now less service time. End of the day, there is really only one scenario where he fetches more and that may be the most far fetched scenario of all of them. And what does fetching more mean? How much more? Is it worth it the risk for whatever the difference ends up being? The assumption seems to be that the offers are bad. The assumption is not, Getz is asking for too much. The market tells you that he’s asking for too much. When your house is worth 500k and you are asking 700k, the value of your house doesn’t increase because “you love your house”. Your house is worth what people will pay. The market is clearly saying that Cease isn’t worth what Getz thinks he’s worth. Whether Getz is off by 20% or 50%, who knows but he’s off. I think the best thing to do is for Getz to come down off his price, get someone else to move up on their price and come to some sort of an agreement. I just can’t see a scenario where it’s worth the risk to wait and trade him even if I agree that the risk could pay off. While he would have slightly less service time than right now, historic evidence (meaning last year) also shows that it is possible for the market for starting pitching at the trade deadline to go quite out-of-whack, with way more demand than supply. Last year's deadline is a perfect example, and take a look at the White Sox. Lance Lynn was leading the league in HR given up, had 2 months of control, and was owed like $7 million for those 2 months. The Dodgers gave up their 8th best prospect for him, and took on Joe Kelly as a gamble because why not. Giolito was being inconsistent, slightly better than 2022 but you could still see the issues if you did some scouting, Lopez was generally bad to open the year in the bullpen, but the Angels gave up a top 100 prospect for him and Lopez. The Mets gave up Verlander and Scherzer and got back guys who are now their top 2 prospects, + more. Yes, they had to send along some money with them, but both were having injury issues and teams just took chances on them. If Cease struggles like he did last year, then the odds are his value isn't lower at the deadline than it is right now. He is still a strikeout pitcher with high level stuff. Teams will take a chance on the ability to fix him, figuring that the White Sox's pitching coach is trash.They might not give up the asking price right now, but his value won't go down just because of the lower service time. Cease's stuff last year was iffy, he put up an ERA of 8 in August, but was pretty good in September. There have been hints that there were mechanical issues last year, so it is possible that this is fixable also. The White Sox should have changed pitching coaches, but too late for that, so we hope for the best. If Cease is just normal next year, slightly better than his truly weak 2023, then he will go into the deadline with an ERA in the mid 3's, with 1.5 years of control, a high K rate (teams like this for the playoffs) and a salary affordable to everyone. That might well be the most valuable player to move at the deadline. The only real downside risk is injury. While this is a real concern, Dylan Cease is also a guy you might gamble on. He has been the most reliable starter in baseball starting in 2021. Maybe that just means the injury is coming, but if you're going to gamble on a guy being healthy, better to bet on Cease than on a guy like Kopech who has been a mess of injuries the last 3 years. This was all pretty obvious at the start of the offseason. Cease struggled last year, the struggles were real, and this would likely matter to teams. Plus, compared to the deadline last year, there was a lot more pitching available for teams to spend FA dollars on, so the market was much less constrained at the deadline. The White Sox didn't need to be in a rush to move him, they could hold out to see if someone really wanted him or became desperate. If no one became desperate, they can hold him to the deadline this year with hopefully limited risk. Sitting there with a high but plausible price, seeing if anyone met it, but not being surprised if no one did was always the smartest and most likely path. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nardiwashere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Sports Guy said: What exactly do you disagree with you? You think his value doesn’t changed with 20 less starts that the acquiring team gets? You think at the trade deadline, a player's value gets significantly discounted because you aren't getting him for April and May starts? This isn't how it works in real life. The team will get him for 2 playoff runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: What exactly do you disagree with you? You think his value doesn’t changed with 20 less starts that the acquiring team gets? 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: While he would have slightly less service time than right now, historic evidence (meaning last year) also shows that it is possible for the market for starting pitching at the trade deadline to go quite out-of-whack, with way more demand than supply. Last year's deadline is a perfect example, and take a look at the White Sox. Lance Lynn was leading the league in HR given up, had 2 months of control, and was owed like $7 million for those 2 months. The Dodgers gave up their 8th best prospect for him, and took on Joe Kelly as a gamble because why not. Giolito was being inconsistent, slightly better than 2022 but you could still see the issues if you did some scouting, Lopez was generally bad to open the year in the bullpen, but the Angels gave up a top 100 prospect for him and Lopez. The Mets gave up Verlander and Scherzer and got back guys who are now their top 2 prospects, + more. Yes, they had to send along some money with them, but both were having injury issues and teams just took chances on them. If Cease struggles like he did last year, then the odds are his value isn't lower at the deadline than it is right now. He is still a strikeout pitcher with high level stuff. Teams will take a chance on the ability to fix him, figuring that the White Sox's pitching coach is trash.They might not give up the asking price right now, but his value won't go down just because of the lower service time. Cease's stuff last year was iffy, he put up an ERA of 8 in August, but was pretty good in September. There have been hints that there were mechanical issues last year, so it is possible that this is fixable also. The White Sox should have changed pitching coaches, but too late for that, so we hope for the best. If Cease is just normal next year, slightly better than his truly weak 2023, then he will go into the deadline with an ERA in the mid 3's, with 1.5 years of control, a high K rate (teams like this for the playoffs) and a salary affordable to everyone. That might well be the most valuable player to move at the deadline. The only real downside risk is injury. While this is a real concern, Dylan Cease is also a guy you might gamble on. He has been the most reliable starter in baseball starting in 2021. Maybe that just means the injury is coming, but if you're going to gamble on a guy being healthy, better to bet on Cease than on a guy like Kopech who has been a mess of injuries the last 3 years. This was all pretty obvious at the start of the offseason. Cease struggled last year, the struggles were real, and this would likely matter to teams. Plus, compared to the deadline last year, there was a lot more pitching available for teams to spend FA dollars on, so the market was much less constrained at the deadline. The White Sox didn't need to be in a rush to move him, they could hold out to see if someone really wanted him or became desperate. If no one became desperate, they can hold him to the deadline this year with hopefully limited risk. Sitting there with a high but plausible price, seeing if anyone met it, but not being surprised if no one did was always the smartest and most likely path. This^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said: You think at the trade deadline, a player's value gets significantly discounted because you aren't getting him for April and May starts? This isn't how it works in real life. The team will get him for 2 playoff runs. Not sure why you're leaving out June and July, but yes, having 4 months of starts of a good pitcher vs not having those 4 months of starts makes them more valuable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Snopek said: Not sure why you're leaving out June and July, but yes, having 4 months of starts of a good pitcher vs not having those 4 months of starts makes them more valuable. I don't think it really effects trade offers much. If you're a team in first place and you still want to upgrade your rotation in the summer, those previous couple of months of service time are irrelevant. An acquiring team also saves about 2/3 salary at that point so I guess if someone is arguing service time matters, so does the financial commitment. Edited January 12 by Bob Sacamano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Snopek said: Not sure why you're leaving out June and July, but yes, having 4 months of starts of a good pitcher vs not having those 4 months of starts makes them more valuable. However, the supply of pitchers right now is much, much, much greater than it will be at the deadline this year. Take a look at the moves teams have made! The Braves - betting that maybe Chris Sale (and their other guys) will be healthy. The Yankees - betting that Carlos Rodon will be healthy and Stroman won't melt down in New York. The Orioles - betting that the back of their rotation is good enough. The Dodgers - betting that Glasnow stays healthy, that Yoshinobu is a $300 million pitcher, that Gonsolin stays healthy, that Buehler stays healthy. It is easy to sell yourself on the possibility of these things being true right now when the only thing it costs is money for most of them. When the deadline has come around and someone is on the 60 day IL, they won't be coming back. Think about the Dodgers last year, their entire rotation was hurt, that may happen again or it may not. For the first half of the season, you put a rotation out there and have a backup plan to get innings if guys do get hurt (FWIW Rick Hahn never understood this second part). For the 2nd half of the season or the playoffs, if your original plan works out - great! IF your plan doesn't work, that's when you pay the high price for a guy in a trade. This is the big difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 (edited) 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: However, the supply of pitchers right now is much, much, much greater than it will be at the deadline this year. Take a look at the moves teams have made! The Braves - betting that maybe Chris Sale (and their other guys) will be healthy. The Yankees - betting that Carlos Rodon will be healthy and Stroman won't melt down in New York. The Orioles - betting that the back of their rotation is good enough. The Dodgers - betting that Glasnow stays healthy, that Yoshinobu is a $300 million pitcher, that Gonsolin stays healthy, that Buehler stays healthy. It is easy to sell yourself on the possibility of these things being true right now when the only thing it costs is money for most of them. When the deadline has come around and someone is on the 60 day IL, they won't be coming back. Think about the Dodgers last year, their entire rotation was hurt, that may happen again or it may not. For the first half of the season, you put a rotation out there and have a backup plan to get innings if guys do get hurt (FWIW Rick Hahn never understood this second part). For the 2nd half of the season or the playoffs, if your original plan works out - great! IF your plan doesn't work, that's when you pay the high price for a guy in a trade. This is the big difference. Exactly. Teams that have added in the off-season will certainly be looking again. That never fails. Also, might get some surprise teams in the hunt for pitching. Edited January 12 by Bob Sacamano Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: I don't think it really effects it much. If you're a team in first place and you still want to upgrade your rotation in the summer, those previous couple of months of service time are irrelevant. An acquiring team also saves about 2/3 salary at that point. I get it, but that assumes that a team would know ahead of time that they'll be in first place and/or won't need Cease until later in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Snopek said: I get it, but that assumes that a team would know ahead of time that they'll be in first place and/or won't need Cease until later in the season. I am referring to a point in time when a team that is sitting in first place in July is looking for pitching. No "knowing ahead" necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nardiwashere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Snopek said: I get it, but that assumes that a team would know ahead of time that they'll be in first place and/or won't need Cease until later in the season. I don't understand what you mean. When the team makes the trade, they know where they are in the standings and what their roster looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: I don't think it really effects it much. If you're a team in first place and you still want to upgrade your rotation in the summer, those previous couple of months of service time are irrelevant. If there is only Cease, it could be. Too many dynamics to make this absolute certainty. If Milwaukee does not contend, you will see Burnes (and possibly Peralta) being available. Miami could make others available. If a team is looking at just a post season, this team can look at 2 separate rental for 2 seasons. Keep in mind that Cease does not have post season track record. He had one not so good start where he struggled with control. There is no way he can be judge by this. He simply has no real post season experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Snowy Demon said: If there is only Cease, it could be. Too many dynamics to make this absolute certainty. If Milwaukee does not contend, you will see Burnes (and possibly Peralta) being available. Miami could make others available. If a team is looking at just a post season, this team can look at 2 separate rental for 2 seasons. Keep in mind that Cease does not have post season track record. He had one not so good start where he struggled with control. There is no way he can be judge by this. He simply has no real post season experience. Yeah definitely other variables. I would take the risk and hold onto him though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said: I am referring to a point in time when a team that is sitting in first place in July is looking for pitching. No "knowing ahead" necessary. 2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said: I don't understand what you mean. When the team makes the trade, they know where they are in the standings and what their roster looks like. Yeah, I had Orioles tunnel vision there and thought you were assuming they specifically would be coasting to first place by the trade deadline. I forgot the list of suitors can/will look much different come July. I need more coffee. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Snopek said: Yeah, I had Orioles tunnel vision there and thought you were assuming they specifically would be coasting to first place by the trade deadline. I forgot the list of suitors can/will look much different come July. I need more coffee. All good man. Have a good Friday! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said: You think at the trade deadline, a player's value gets significantly discounted because you aren't getting him for April and May starts? This isn't how it works in real life. The team will get him for 2 playoff runs. The question is value now vs value later. His value is unquestionably higher right now than it will be in July UNLESS he is pitching at a higher level than he did in 2023. Again, pitching fetches more at the deadline than the offseason most of the time but that pitcher has to be pitching well. If Cease has a league averaging ERA+ come July 20th and the walk rate is still an issue, Getz isn’t getting 2 premium prospects and 2 other good pieces. He can’t get it now and he won’t get it later. The idea of hanging onto Cease is based solely off the idea that they feel he will be better. If he is than it’s a gamble that could pay off. However, this is more to go wrong than go right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: If there is only Cease, it could be. Too many dynamics to make this absolute certainty. If Milwaukee does not contend, you will see Burnes (and possibly Peralta) being available. Miami could make others available. If a team is looking at just a post season, this team can look at 2 separate rental for 2 seasons. Keep in mind that Cease does not have post season track record. He had one not so good start where he struggled with control. There is no way he can be judge by this. He simply has no real post season experience. One or two extra pitchers on the market doesn't likely make a difference here. How many teams will be in need of at least 1 starting pitcher? Last year, the Astros didn't obviously need another starter in July, they emptied out their minors entirely for Verlander, and they wound up moving their rookie starter to the bullpen rather than relying on him for the playoffs when he struggled down the stretch. There will be 15 to 20 teams genuinely in contention, a few teams stuck in the middle, and maybe 8 teams that think they're out of it enough to sell. Those 8 teams will be really bad teams, so they will move the pieces they have but won't have a lot to move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopek Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I'll be curious to see an early TDL candidates list once the offseason dust settles. Some names here are likely still relevant, but it's fairly outdated overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: The question is value now vs value later. His value is unquestionably higher right now than it will be in July UNLESS he is pitching at a higher level than he did in 2023. I would question this. I would say his value is likely higher in July if he's exactly the same pitcher as last year, unless he is hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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