2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

"If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more"

-Balta1701 clearly telling everyone that the 2022 Cease is gone. Somehow.

Show me where the lie is. I'll hang up and listen.

Actually, don't. I still don't care.

Edited January 5, 20242 yr by Tnetennba

9 minutes ago, Quin said:

 

As for Cease, the Mets are not viewed as the favorites. If any team is, it is the prospect-rich Orioles.

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m just saying things, but if Getz is holding to three premium prospects and there is still this much interest I think our expectations should rise some.

Also tells you that the Yanks and Orioles, at a minimum, are willing to part with big names if they’re still interested.

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

His decline in 2023 was real, and is somewhat covered up by Fangraphs.

Other teams have leaked to the media (or Getz called reporters imitating a couple other GMs) that they fully believe that Cease's issues are not physical, don't look like an injury or age, and are most probably a mechanical issue that their staff can work on. 

I imagine teams that consider themselves contenders have faith in their coaching and training staffs to make the correct adjustments. You, yourself, even said that if Cease has another 2023, the pitching coaches should be fired, because he has the talent. (Or something to that effect.)

I'm not sure where the disconnect is. I'm sure GMs posture about a player's floor and ceiling, but at some point, we all realize that a stats department can map out best and worst case scenarios, and if the worst case scenario is still an effective, durable pitcher, as Cease is, then the acquisition is a go. 

Just now, WestEddy said:

Other teams have leaked to the media (or Getz called reporters imitating a couple other GMs) that they fully believe that Cease's issues are not physical, don't look like an injury or age, and are most probably a mechanical issue that their staff can work on. 

I imagine teams that consider themselves contenders have faith in their coaching and training staffs to make the correct adjustments. You, yourself, even said that if Cease has another 2023, the pitching coaches should be fired, because he has the talent. (Or something to that effect.)

I'm not sure where the disconnect is. I'm sure GMs posture about a player's floor and ceiling, but at some point, we all realize that a stats department can map out best and worst case scenarios, and if the worst case scenario is still an effective, durable pitcher, as Cease is, then the acquisition is a go. 

I can’t state this enough….other teams know the Sox culture and defense was garbage.  It’s a big reason we saw Lynn and Giolito bring back better than expected packages.

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

As for Cease, the Mets are not viewed as the favorites. If any team is, it is the prospect-rich Orioles.

More teams in the bidding the less likely that the Orioles make the trade if Elias sticks to his pre-market valuation of Cease. 

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I don’t think they’re going to have enough to get Cease, but the Sox did like Gilbert in the draft

Really? Not going to pretend I know much about trade valuations, but I think Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, and Colin Houck could be a fantastic package.

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

I don’t think they’re going to have enough to get Cease, but the Sox did like Gilbert in the draft

Can Baty be a 2nd piece now?

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

Show me where the lie is. I'll hang up and listen.

Actually, don't. I still don't care.

Quote

No, no one is listening because Balta cares more about being right and telling everyone that he will be than accepting that it's possible for Cease to rebound.

I literally say "If you can get the 2022 Cease out of him" and you insist "Balta says Cease can't rebound".

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As for Cease, the Mets are not viewed as the favorites. If any team is, it is the prospect-rich Orioles.

More teams being interested is always better than less and it could help increase the return.

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

More teams in the bidding the less likely that the Orioles make the trade if Elias sticks to his pre-market valuation of Cease. 

You are assuming his pre market valuation is off. 

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I can’t state this enough….other teams know the Sox culture and defense was garbage.  It’s a big reason we saw Lynn and Giolito bring back better than expected packages.

But both of those guys were garbage elsewhere? Especially Giolito?

8 minutes ago, Quin said:

In a deal with the Mets, how do we feel about getting Baty while his stock is down?

Obviously not a headliner, but, a thought.

I like the idea a lot. Something like Baty, Gilbert, Jett, Vasil would be a great package and fill a bunch of needs within the next 12-18 months.

If we don't trade with Baltimore does that mean our resident Baltimore fans go away? If so I'm liking the New York teams ideas alot more. 

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

More teams being interested is always better than less and it could help increase the return.

The only thing that’s ultimately matters is what are teams willing to give up and who does Getz value. Other teams being involved is great and all but if 2 teams value Cease as a 1/2 starter and the rest value him at a #2/3 starter, the other teams don’t really matter.  

The only teams that matter in that scenario are the ones who value him at the highest…which is 2 teams.

17 minutes ago, fathom said:

Harold, good call on the Mets

I was told they were definitely in.  

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fair enough, we can throw out the COVID year. 
 

And I never said anything even remotely like he had 1 good year 3 years ago and hasn’t shown anything since. However, if you look at 2022 (that wasn’t 3 years ago) and look at the rest of the years, I think it’s obvious what the outlier year is. I think it’s obvious that “one of these is unlike any other”.

He also perfected his slider that year and started to maximize its usage.  You have to remember that his curveball was his big weapon in the minors and he gradually switched over to his slider being his out pitch.  That took a few years, but eventually that slider got so nasty that it became the most valuable pitch in Statcast.  I just think it’s silly to look at Cease’s performance prior to 2021 and draw any conclusions.  Pitchers can materially change in an instance with small mechanical changes or repertoire adjustments and we saw that firsthand with Cease.

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I literally say "If you can get the 2022 Cease out of him" and you insist "Balta says Cease can't rebound".

Diatribe after diatribe telling everyone why they are wrong say differently. If you're gonna brow beat everyone over and over again that Cease is broken, you don't get to act like people are putting words in your mouth when we state the opposite.

But please, keep trying to pretend like you haven't been out to prove yourself right.

Edited January 5, 20242 yr by Tnetennba

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I was told they were definitely in.  

The Sox had lots of interest in Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the draft process and Stearns didn’t draft any of these guys 

5 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Really? Not going to pretend I know much about trade valuations, but I think Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, and Colin Houck could be a fantastic package.

It would be shocking to me to see Stearns do that, especially since it seems the Mets aren’t going to spend big this offseason.

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

He also perfected his slider that year and started to maximize its usage.  You have to remember that his curveball was his big weapon in the minors and he gradually switched over to his slider being his out pitch.  That took a few years, but eventually that slider got so nasty that it became the most valuable pitch in Statcast.  I just think it’s silly to look at Cease’s performance prior to 2021 and draw any conclusions.  Pitchers can materially change in an instance with small mechanical changes or repertoire adjustments and we saw that firsthand with Cease.

ERA+:

2021: 112

2022: 180

2023: 97

 

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing that’s ultimately matters is what are teams willing to give up and who does Getz value. Other teams being involved is great and all but if 2 teams value Cease as a 1/2 starter and the rest value him at a #2/3 starter, the other teams don’t really matter.  

The only teams that matter in that scenario are the ones who value him at the highest…which is 2 teams.

Or, all 4 teams want Cease and all submit offers for him and Getz gets the pick of the best offer?  And may even then try to get the teams to up their offers slightly, using this multiple team competition for his services.

You sure seem to think it’s your way or the highway, as if you were a planted bug on Getz’s cell phone.

Edited January 5, 20242 yr by WhiteSox2023

1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I was told they were definitely in.  

Awesome. They line up very well especially if they’re willing to part with Gilbert and Jett as the headliners.

2 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The Sox had lots of interest in Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the draft process and Stearns didn’t draft any of these guys 

They did and they really liked Jett Williams too.  

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing that’s ultimately matters is what are teams willing to give up and who does Getz value. Other teams being involved is great and all but if 2 teams value Cease as a 1/2 starter and the rest value him at a #2/3 starter, the other teams don’t really matter.  

The only teams that matter in that scenario are the ones who value him at the highest…which is 2 teams.

It always matters as more teams bidding drives up the price. Teams get desperate if they determine they need upgrades to win. They are willing to bid more to get the player. This is true whether it's money or prospects. 

If Baltimore is just going to give their best offer at the beginning of the negotiations and never waver, it's less likely they will get him. They might have the best offer but it's less likely.