6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

On paper, they should be one of the better defensive teams in mlb depending on what they do with RF. So I disagree that his numbers will take a hit. Yes, his W-L will be terrible because they won’t score (again) but no one looks at W-L for pitchers these days it seems.

Don't forget pitchers get hit by line drives all the time . They also have to field their position. Plenty of ways for misfortune to strike without an arm injury.

Another consideration is that does TDL really increase the value?  Less number of teams will be involved and less control may offset values.  Other teams may also be hesitant with Cease taking a step back in 2023.  Everyone will find out if Cease's stuff being down is permanent or not.  

Next weekend is the Cubs convention. I suspect they do something this week. They really should be in on Cease.

1 minute ago, Snowy Demon said:

Another consideration is that does TDL really increase the value?  Less number of teams will be involved and less control may offset values.  Other teams may also be hesitant with Cease taking a step back in 2023.  Everyone will find out if Cease's stuff being down is permanent or not.  

There’s risk to waiting for sure. But it’s also possible that in another 6 months we find out Joey Ortiz is indeed Madrigal 2.0 and Cowser is Stowers 2.0. Anything can happen and I’d sure be pissed to trade for those two as the headliners if that’s their outcome. I’m perfectly fine with Getz waiting for the guys he likes/wants rather than forcing a trade for a lesser return out of fear of Cease regressing further.

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Next weekend is the Cubs convention. I suspect they do something this week. They really should be in on Cease.

? in addition to the Yankees, that’s a team I’d really like to see involved with Cease. Perfect fit for them too. If they bring back Bellinger, sign Chapman, and trade for Cease, they’re an easy favorite in the NL Central. They certainly have the farm system and pitching prospects to land Cease, there’s no doubt about that.

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

? in addition to the Yankees, that’s a team I’d really like to see involved with Cease. Perfect fit for them too. If they bring back Bellinger, sign Chapman, and trade for Cease, they’re an easy favorite in the NL Central. They certainly have the farm system and pitching prospects to land Cease, there’s no doubt about that.

It is interesting that NL Central teams have #2, #3, #4, and #5 ranked farm systems in baseball.  St Louis is the one that does not have a highly ranked system.  You can make a case for every one of those teams to make Cease trade. 

3 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

Another consideration is that does TDL really increase the value?  Less number of teams will be involved and less control may offset values.  Other teams may also be hesitant with Cease taking a step back in 2023.  Everyone will find out if Cease's stuff being down is permanent or not.  

If he pitches closer to his 2022 numbers it will substanially increase. Better than 2023 nice increase. Similar to 2023 or worse hurts quite a bit.

Usually a lot of teams need help at the trade deadline, some team doing better than expected, some doing worse needing a boost, injuries once ST starts , contenders looking for just that one piece to give them the upper hand.

The whole RSN situation is giving teams excuses not to spend. How that's looking by the trade deadline ,IDK.

Best case scenario he's closer to his '22 numbers and you get him for 2 more playoffs and still get your comp pick when he becomes a FA and you get peace of mind that he's wasn't trending down.

You also now have to pay the piper because of he's a hotter property than ever.

Worst case I don't even want to think about it.

 

 

It seems more than ever that TDL deals are rentals only.  I guess the worse case is Brandon Woodruff situation. 

One thing that is concerning is Cease has never been pitch efficient.  His pitches/innings pitched for the past 3 years is by far the highest in MLB.  He is even higher than Snell.  

I unfortunately just read a few pages of that thread on the Orioles forum. That was enlightening to put it mildly. 

50 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

Another consideration is that does TDL really increase the value?  Less number of teams will be involved and less control may offset values.  Other teams may also be hesitant with Cease taking a step back in 2023.  Everyone will find out if Cease's stuff being down is permanent or not.  

The most recent observation was that for pitching the deadline was nuts last year. Giolito was clearly struggling but brought back a top 100 prospect. Lynn was leading the league in HR given up and brought back a guy probably in the top 150.

Right now the Braves can say “What if Sale is healthy,” the Dodgers can say “what if Gonsolin is healthy”, the Mets can say “we have too many question marks to be aggressive”, and the Orioles can say “what if we win the division anyway”.  Any of those could be true, but by the deadline some of them won’t be. For pitchers at least, last year that created a big imbalance between need and supply, and there’s plenty of reason to suspect that will be the case again this year.

For position players it was different last year, only a few teams needed guys at specific spots, so that market didn’t go as crazy. Everyone needed starting pitching, not everyone needed a DH.

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The most recent observation was that for pitching the deadline was nuts last year. Giolito was clearly struggling but brought back a top 100 prospect. Lynn was leading the league in HR given up and brought back a guy probably in the top 150.

Right now the Braves can say “What if Sale is healthy,” the Dodgers can say “what if Gonsolin is healthy”, the Mets can say “we have too many question marks to be aggressive”, and the Orioles can say “what if we win the division anyway”.  Any of those could be true, but by the deadline some of them won’t be. For pitchers at least, last year that created a big imbalance between need and supply, and there’s plenty of reason to suspect that will be the case again this year.

For position players it was different last year, only a few teams needed guys at specific spots, so that market didn’t go as crazy. Everyone needed starting pitching, not everyone needed a DH.

Are you suggesting there isn’t a major demand-supply imbalance for SP right now?

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The most recent observation was that for pitching the deadline was nuts last year. Giolito was clearly struggling but brought back a top 100 prospect. Lynn was leading the league in HR given up and brought back a guy probably in the top 150.

Right now the Braves can say “What if Sale is healthy,” the Dodgers can say “what if Gonsolin is healthy”, the Mets can say “we have too many question marks to be aggressive”, and the Orioles can say “what if we win the division anyway”.  Any of those could be true, but by the deadline some of them won’t be. For pitchers at least, last year that created a big imbalance between need and supply, and there’s plenty of reason to suspect that will be the case again this year.

For position players it was different last year, only a few teams needed guys at specific spots, so that market didn’t go as crazy. Everyone needed starting pitching, not everyone needed a DH.

Also, the Dodgers literally went out and said “f*** waiting until the deadline, I’m going to give Yamamoto the biggest contract ever and give up real talent for a talented but fragile arm making significant money”.  And the Dodgers can say “what if Gonsolin is healthy”, but I don’t think they’ll like the answer to that question ?

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You are referencing a list that is 6 months old. Where do you think they’ll rank those guys when they update their list in a few weeks?

You still didnt  answer my question! 
 

 

Lowder was the #7 pick this year so he hasn’t pitched (no change), Arroyo is a SS with a .757 OPS this year (maybe he will move a few slots ), Phillips is 22 had a 3.58 ERA at AA, 4.69 At AAA , and 6.+ in the majors, he was clearly rushed. Is there really a reason to devalue him ? If so they shouldn’t sell low and he should start his year at AA imo. Petty had an ERA under 2 this season in 18 starts and has 2 grade 60 pitches and 50 control. My guess is he’s a riser….Does he make the top 100….I have no idea. 
 

If Getz was devaluing Phillips why was he asking for him. This plus a lottery ticket is a gigantic return. You guys are dreaming over Schulz but who was drafted a year earlier and 19 slots later than Lowder and only pitched 27 innings this year. So I’m guessing you’d rate him extremely high if he was a White Sox prospect. 

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are you suggesting there isn’t a major demand-supply imbalance for SP right now?

I think they’re pretty obviously not going crazy. Snell is still waiting, Montgomery is still waiting, we have just over a month until pitchers and catchers report and there’s not a lot of money pouring after those guys.

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

west eddy use the ignore feature available to all if you don’t like his contribution.

Okay, it took me a full calendar day to figure that out. Goodbye, Sports Guy and Rolle. 

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think they’re pretty obviously not going crazy. Snell is still waiting, Montgomery is still waiting, we have just over a month until pitchers and catchers report and there’s not a lot of money pouring after those guys.

That's the Boras MO though. I don't think it has anything to do with the teams. It more Boras dragging it out. 

20 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

You still didnt  answer my question! 
 

 

Lowder was the #7 pick this year so he hasn’t pitched (no change), Arroyo is a SS with a .757 OPS this year (maybe he will move a few slots ), Phillips is 22 had a 3.58 ERA at AA, 4.69 At AAA , and 6.+ in the majors, he was clearly rushed. Is there really a reason to devalue him ? If so they shouldn’t sell low and he should start his year at AA imo. Petty had an ERA under 2 this season in 18 starts and has 2 grade 60 pitches and 50 control. My guess is he’s a riser….Does he make the top 100….I have no idea. 
 

If Getz was devaluing Phillips why was he asking for him. This plus a lottery ticket is a gigantic return. You guys are dreaming over Schulz but who was drafted a year earlier and 19 slots later than Lowder and only pitched 27 innings this year. So I’m guessing you’d rate him extremely high if he was a White Sox prospect. 

If the Sox were in the reds position I would trade Schultz, Quero, Ramos, and a couple lotto tickets for Cease.

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think they’re pretty obviously not going crazy. Snell is still waiting, Montgomery is still waiting, we have just over a month until pitchers and catchers report and there’s not a lot of money pouring after those guys.

Who is not going crazy?

And there is a reason these guys are still available…because the market was on hold while the Yamamoto tour was going on.  Boras is looking for a fuckton of money for these guys and is just finally getting started in terms of marketing them.  I don’t how anyone can say without a straight face that this market for SP isn’t nuts simply because teams aren’t eager to hand Snell $200M+.  Someone probably will once the desperation settles in and Boras will happily wait until camp starts if need be.  This literally happens almost every year.

11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If the Sox were in the reds position I would trade Schultz, Quero, Ramos, and a couple lotto tickets for Cease.

That doesn’t answer my question…. If you were a Reds fan would you want them to deal 3 Top 100 players, a fringe top 100, and another prospect for 2 years of Cease? 
 

If the honest answer isn’t no, we can agree to disagree.

Just now, Rolle Tide said:

That doesn’t answer my question…. If you were a Reds fan would you want them to deal 3 Top 100 players, a fringe top 100, and another prospect for 2 years of Cease? 
 

If the honest answer isn’t no, we can agree to disagree.

Of course not, which further illustrates that rumor was BS.

36 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

You still didnt  answer my question! 
 

 

Lowder was the #7 pick this year so he hasn’t pitched (no change), Arroyo is a SS with a .757 OPS this year (maybe he will move a few slots ), Phillips is 22 had a 3.58 ERA at AA, 4.69 At AAA , and 6.+ in the majors, he was clearly rushed. Is there really a reason to devalue him ? If so they shouldn’t sell low and he should start his year at AA imo. Petty had an ERA under 2 this season in 18 starts and has 2 grade 60 pitches and 50 control. My guess is he’s a riser….Does he make the top 100….I have no idea. 
 

If Getz was devaluing Phillips why was he asking for him. This plus a lottery ticket is a gigantic return. You guys are dreaming over Schulz but who was drafted a year earlier and 19 slots later than Lowder and only pitched 27 innings this year. So I’m guessing you’d rate him extremely high if he was a White Sox prospect. 

Hey look, Nicky Delmonico is the 6th rated prospect in the Orioles system with a 55 FV grade.  They should make him the headliner in a deal for Cease.  Oh wait, that was 2012.  We don't know what the Sox have as an asking price, but it sure as s%*# doesn't include Ortiz as a headliner.

7 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

That doesn’t answer my question…. If you were a Reds fan would you want them to deal 3 Top 100 players, a fringe top 100, and another prospect for 2 years of Cease? 
 

If the honest answer isn’t no, we can agree to disagree.

No but that’s not what the Sox asked for either. They asked for 2 top 100 players, two fringe top 100 prospects, and a lotto. If I was a reds fan, I would trade 2 top 100 players, a fringe top 100, and a lotto for Cease (eg, one less fringe top 100 guy). Does that answer your dumb question?

5 minutes ago, champagne030 said:

Hey look, Nicky Delmonico is the 6th rated prospect in the Orioles system with a 55 FV grade.  They should make him the headliner in a deal for Cease.  Oh wait, that was 2012.  We don't know what the Sox have as an asking price, but it sure as s%*# doesn't include Ortiz as a headliner.

We do know ….. go back and read the previous few posts. 3 Top 100, a fringe top 100, and a fifth prospect according to the Reds writer. That’s what my response was to @JUSTgottaBELIEVE. 
 

This post had nothing to do with Ortiz.

15 minutes ago, fathom said:

Of course not, which further illustrates that rumor was BS.

Why would the Reds writer lie about it? The Reds moved on because of the steep price. 

1 minute ago, Rolle Tide said:

We do know ….. go back and read the previous few posts. 3 Top 100, a fringe top 100, and a fifth prospect according to the Reds writer. That’s what my response was to @JUSTgottaBELIEVE. 
 

This post had nothing to do with Ortiz.

Except Phillips is no longer a top 100 prospect….so they didn’t ask for 3 top 100 prospects…