January 9, 20242 yr Just now, ptatc said: Not physically possible for more than 15 starts. 15 starts for him might be 50 innings
January 9, 20242 yr 1 minute ago, fathom said: Just seeing all these names, this is a glorified AAA team besides Robert. It makes the 2023 Sox roster look like the 27 Yankees. It’s just so frustrating because so many of these guys are old and/or won’t have any trade value. Low-risk, low-reward. That's what you get when you want to be very cheap.
January 9, 20242 yr 2 minutes ago, fathom said: 15 starts for him might be 50 innings Yeah, I added that later. If they limit him to 3-4 innings he could. I can't see much more than 80 innings.
January 9, 20242 yr 51 minutes ago, WestEddy said: As I said in the Cease rumor thread, I like a rotation of Cease, Fedde, Kopech, Crochet and Soroka. If Cease leaves, there's 5-6 guys to shuffle through for a 5th man. I actually haven't felt this settled about an off-season in a while. At least now, the dumpster dives make sense. They're happening in context. We'll have positive WAR SS and 2B. If they pick up a RF, a few guys regress to the mean, I can actually see them challenging for a .500 record. With the pitching that you mentioned I don't see why they can't contend. I'm expecting big years offensively from Robert Jr, Eloy, Vaughn, Benitendi and even Moncada. I'm hoping that Montgomery is the Opening Day shortstop. If everything clicks it should be an exciting year.
January 9, 20242 yr 1 minute ago, Vote4Pedro said: Sox gonna try the ol 10 man rotation coming out of spring training apparently With the scarcity of good pitching and even starters not going more than 5 innings, there needs to be some kind of innovation.
January 9, 20242 yr 8 minutes ago, WBWSF said: With the pitching that you mentioned I don't see why they can't contend. I'm expecting big years offensively from Robert Jr, Eloy, Vaughn, Benitendi and even Moncada. I'm hoping that Montgomery is the Opening Day shortstop. If everything clicks it should be an exciting year. Hi Brooks, can we do an AMA with you on here?
January 9, 20242 yr 19 minutes ago, WBWSF said: With the pitching that you mentioned I don't see why they can't contend. I'm expecting big years offensively from Robert Jr, Eloy, Vaughn, Benitendi and even Moncada. I'm hoping that Montgomery is the Opening Day shortstop. If everything clicks it should be an exciting year. This feels more like the 2007 bullpen fiasco. We have a TON of names, but how many of them are actually going to turn out well? Time will tell...but surely the majority of scouts are quite skeptical at the moment because Benintendi of all players is already being used as the excuse for not being able to do much financially. Moncada obviously, as well. But it was always SOMEONE used as the excuse for not spending. John Danks for a long time...and here we are a generation later still limited to 3-4 year deals while Rodon and Cease (maybe) end up with the Yankees at $300-400 million total...and yet it will likely be that cautionary tale that JR loves to spin to defend his not spending instead of "what might have been" with Harper/Machado/Wheeler. (More than anything...copying the 2014-15 Royals won't work nearly as well at GRF. Not unless they just went back to play in 1980's Old Comiskey, the way that parked played in CF. And they aren't going to have an aggressive stolen base and contact/advancing runners oriented attack with this mix of players, either.) Edited January 9, 20242 yr by caulfield12
January 9, 20242 yr Just now, caulfield12 said: This feels more like the 2007 bullpen fiasco. We have a TON of names, but how many of them are actually going to turn out well? Time will tell...but surely the majority of scouts are quite skeptical at the moment because Benintendi of all players is already being used as the excuse for not being able to do much financially. Moncada obviously, as well. It was always SOMEONE used as the excuse for not spending. John Danks for a long time...and here we are a generation later still limited to 3-4 year deals while Rodon and Cease (maybe) end up with the Yankees at $300-400 million...and yet it will likely be that cautionary tale that JR loves to spin to defend his not spending instead of "what might have been" with Harper/Machado/Wheeler. Who cares if they don't turn out well? If most are a fiasco, it's fine, we clear out Moncada's and Eloy's contracts, no long term commitments, and there's space for Montgomery to step in next year. At least that's a starting point where we haven't made things worse. If one or two guys turn out decent, then hopefully we've manufactured a guy or two who can be traded at the deadline, that's literally all that really matters here. For Crochet, decent chance they've screwed him up so much that it won't matter either way, but if he's off to a good start as a starter in 2025 that could have some real trade value. So, try to get him over 100 innings this year, see how he does, there's not a big loss if he doesn't work out like this. Since 2024 is a lost year anyway, if he puts up an ERA of 6 in his last 30 innings, who cares as long as he doesn't get hurt?
January 9, 20242 yr 50 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: This is 100% the right idea. He's already arb-eligible, so only 3 years of control remaining. The best you're going to get from him if you don't try this is a reliever for a couple years. If he hurts himself doing this - oh darn you lost the trade return for an oft-injured reliever in 2025? Not a big loss. Agreed. They need a LHP in the rotation too since I don't think Shuster will be in the top 5 and apparently 2/28 was somehow too much for Manaea.
January 9, 20242 yr 29 minutes ago, fathom said: Just seeing all these names, this is a glorified AAA team besides Robert. It makes the 2023 Sox roster look like the 27 Yankees. It’s just so frustrating because so many of these guys are old and/or won’t have any trade value. And yet the Rays would find a way to win 90 games with this roster
January 9, 20242 yr 10 minutes ago, ptatc said: With the scarcity of good pitching and even starters not going more than 5 innings, there needs to be some kind of innovation. With this current group, they're going to need a couple of long-relievers in the pen.
January 9, 20242 yr 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Who cares if they don't turn out well? If most are a fiasco, it's fine, we clear out Moncada's and Eloy's contracts, no long term commitments, and there's space for Montgomery to step in next year. At least that's a starting point where we haven't made things worse. If one or two guys turn out decent, then hopefully we've manufactured a guy or two who can be traded at the deadline, that's literally all that really matters here. For Crochet, decent chance they've screwed him up so much that it won't matter either way, but if he's off to a good start as a starter in 2025 that could have some real trade value. So, try to get him over 100 innings this year, see how he does, there's not a big loss if he doesn't work out like this. Since 2024 is a lost year anyway, if he puts up an ERA of 6 in his last 30 innings, who cares as long as he doesn't get hurt? The biggest problem is turning all those prospects/suspects into quality players who are better than average major League starters. And it's already looking quite possible that they don't get much out of their 2024 first rounder... Sox might currently have 4-6 on the entire 40 man roster who will still be around in the final year of Robert's deal. Getz will have to be as good on his evaluations as Hahn was bad with FAs.
January 9, 20242 yr 7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Who cares if they don't turn out well? If most are a fiasco, it's fine, we clear out Moncada's and Eloy's contracts, no long term commitments, and there's space for Montgomery to step in next year. At least that's a starting point where we haven't made things worse. If one or two guys turn out decent, then hopefully we've manufactured a guy or two who can be traded at the deadline, that's literally all that really matters here. For Crochet, decent chance they've screwed him up so much that it won't matter either way, but if he's off to a good start as a starter in 2025 that could have some real trade value. So, try to get him over 100 innings this year, see how he does, there's not a big loss if he doesn't work out like this. Since 2024 is a lost year anyway, if he puts up an ERA of 6 in his last 30 innings, who cares as long as he doesn't get hurt? The getting injured part is the issue otherwise I agree. I think they need to cap innings around 80 based on his history. If he makes it that far without injuries it's a major win.
January 9, 20242 yr 30 minutes ago, WBWSF said: With the pitching that you mentioned I don't see why they can't contend. I'm expecting big years offensively from Robert Jr, Eloy, Vaughn, Benitendi and even Moncada. I'm hoping that Montgomery is the Opening Day shortstop. If everything clicks it should be an exciting year. Yup, we're doomed.
January 9, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, WestEddy said: As I said in the Cease rumor thread, I like a rotation of Cease, Fedde, Kopech, Crochet and Soroka. If Cease leaves, there's 5-6 guys to shuffle through for a 5th man. I actually haven't felt this settled about an off-season in a while. At least now, the dumpster dives make sense. They're happening in context. We'll have positive WAR SS and 2B. If they pick up a RF, a few guys regress to the mean, I can actually see them challenging for a .500 record. What in the world are you smoking? Right now they're a 100+ loss team easily and you have them winning 81 games. Fedde blows. Kopech blows now. Crochet has never thrown more than 65 innings in a year and that was in college. Soroka blows. If the Sox trade cease, they contend for one of the worst rotations of the past decade easily.
January 9, 20242 yr 41 minutes ago, fathom said: Just seeing all these names, this is a glorified AAA team besides Robert. It makes the 2023 Sox roster look like the 27 Yankees. It’s just so frustrating because so many of these guys are old and/or won’t have any trade value. Very successful former GM Jim Bowden gave them a B, idk what you're talking about.
January 9, 20242 yr Just now, ptatc said: The getting injured part is the issue otherwise I agree. I think they need to cap innings around 80 based on his history. If he makes it that far without injuries it's a major win. What are the odds that he stays fully healthy as a reliever and gives them 60 outings this year to build some trade value as a reliever? If the chances of him getting hurt while trying to stretch out as a starter are 33%, and the chances of him getting hurt as a reliever are 25%, just to put example numbers on it - having success as a starter would make him way more valuable in a trade next year than if he was a reliever only. So maybe you raise the chances of injury a little bit, but you create a potential strong reward, and Crochet is totally cool with it since a successful starter might make $100 million+ and a successful reliever might make $20 million. And, if he does get hurt again as a starter, you still have 2 more years where you can move him back to the bullpen if it doesn't work. This is just a smart risk. It should have been the goal last year, to start stretching him out, but Rick Hahn was terrible.
January 9, 20242 yr The truly amazing thing about this team is their 99% outcome might be under 500. The Sox could, if everything fell right, have a top 10 offense I think. If career years and health were existent, who knows. Their 99th percentile offense is top 10 well say. With pitching, you need to cover 800 innings with starters. Between soroka, crochet and kopech the Sox have about 200 innings. Fedde stinks, but let's say they let him stink for 150 innings. With cease gone, the Sox need to cover 450 innings with people not currently here lol.
January 9, 20242 yr Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said: The truly amazing thing about this team is their 99% outcome might be under 500. The Sox could, if everything fell right, have a top 10 offense I think. If career years and health were existent, who knows. Their 99th percentile offense is top 10 well say. With pitching, you need to cover 800 innings with starters. Between soroka, crochet and kopech the Sox have about 200 innings. Fedde stinks, but let's say they let him stink for 150 innings. With cease gone, the Sox need to cover 450 innings with people not currently here lol. Maldonado, Dejong, Lopez, and RF_x are going to be in their everyday lineup most of the year. If anything, they've actually downgraded on power and OBP this year from the worst OBP team in baseball last year. There's just no way they are a top 10 offense set up like this, 99th percentile or not. Who is actually going to score runs?
January 9, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, fathom said: Getz said Flexen will be in the rotation today I never liked this guy, even when he was solid. I'll give him 150 IPs with this team though. Bring the number down.
January 9, 20242 yr 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Maldonado, Dejong, Lopez, and RF_x are going to be in their everyday lineup most of the year. If anything, they've actually downgraded on power and OBP this year from the worst OBP team in baseball last year. There's just no way they are a top 10 offense set up like this, 99th percentile or not. Who is actually going to score runs? Lopez has had a 104 wRC+ in a full season. He stinks but there's a proven outcome that makes him viable. I doubt dejong starts all year or at all. Eloy, moncada, Robert, Vaughn, benetendi all have good enough top line outcomes to substantiate what i said. Youre acting like I said this is their mean outcome.
January 9, 20242 yr 1 hour ago, Quin said: As Balta pointed out in another thread, we hilariously have more starting depth than the competing window. Now, is it good depth? Eh. But...I'm gonna list everyone. * means they'll certainly have some sort of innings limit. Cease Fedde (I guess he's OD starter if Cease leaves) Kopech Touki Soroka Flexen (I honestly forgot him until I hit post, truly looking forward to him) Shuster (L) Scholtens Nastrini Martin* Crochet* (L) Burke* Mena Eder Bush The big irony here for Hahn is that he acquired all but Fedde, Soroka, Shuster and big Flexen This is where I'm at with the off-season. Sure, most of these guys will be terrible, but hopefully a few of the younger guys become assets (Eder, Mena, Nastrini types), and hopefully you get a couple hot starts from the others that can be traded for more controllable younger assets at the deadline. Not going to be a fun year, but will hopefully at least have some young guys to watch develop.
January 9, 20242 yr 3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Lopez has had a 104 wRC+ in a full season. He stinks but there's a proven outcome that makes him viable. I doubt dejong starts all year or at all. Eloy, moncada, Robert, Vaughn, benetendi all have good enough top line outcomes to substantiate what i said. Youre acting like I said this is their mean outcome. I will bet you that in August we are angry because of how often Dejong is playing while Montgomery is sitting.
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