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Imanaga to the Cubs


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11 minutes ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I don’t think it makes a ton of sense for the cubs to go after Cease because I’m not entirely sure the cubs will be good during the duration of his contract. At this point I think it’s pretty dead in the water unless the cubs are willing to move Horton or the sox are interested in taking a quantity type of deal. 
 

if the Cubs take PCA and Horton off the table I think there could be a suitable package made up of a few of the other guys towards the top. Something with a combination of Wicks, Brown, Triantos, Morel, Mervis, Assad could be interesting. 
 

Morel has a cannon but he may be a decent fit at second based on his inconsistency with accuracy. Mervis would be largely blocked at first by Vaughn but if they feel they can get him consistent DH at bats they’re a big power upside. 
 

Assad  could be interesting for the Sox. He was very solid last year and might find himself the odd man out on the roster if they were to trade for Cease. 
 

I could also see Wesneski as a trade fit. Personally I think he will make a nasty reliever for the cubs next year and I would keep him but there is some upside in giving him another run as a starter. 
 

As a Cubs fan I would not like a move like this, but I can’t deny the fit is there for both teams.

Triantos?  Pitcher or hitter?  Scouting report?

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36 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Triantos?  Pitcher or hitter?  Scouting report?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-triantos/sa3017295/stats?position=2B/3B
 

hes probably going to be a second baseman at the next level. he was an over slot second rounder in 2021 that has lived up to the pick. 
 

He’s got a very good hit tool and walked  as much as he struck out (10% each) in high A as a 20 year old. He finished the year in AA and is a bit of a controversial prospect. Most everyone thinks the hit tool will play but some people think there is some power to be had once he matures and when he adjusts his approach to be a bit more aggressive. 
 

Triantos will be blocked by Hoerner and Matt Shaw and may be expendable. He is not a centerpiece for a cease trade but would be in that next tier. 

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2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

That contract leads me to believe there will be issues with his physical because that is way cheaper than many anticipated.

Yes, this sounds like 1/3 of what was expected. It’s a low risk savvy deal for the Cubs.

Yamamoto is better, but not 5 - 10 Xs better, even factoring for age.

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15 hours ago, chw42 said:

Imanaga at Wrigley might lead to him leading the league in HRs allowed.

Maybe. He pitched in a bandbox in Japan, too. He’s a high spin guy, which is often credited for his homer prevention. We’ll see if it’s enough to work over here. 

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10 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yes, this sounds like 1/3 of what was expected. It’s a low risk savvy deal for the Cubs.

Yamamoto is better, but not 5 - 10 Xs better, even factoring for age.

Idk, Yamamoto is a hell of a lot better.

Admittedly, I haven’t watched nearly as much Imanaga (because it’s harder for me to get games from his league) as I have of both Yamamoto/Senga, but I’d put Imanaga below Senga pretty comfortably. It’s not a super fair comparison because they’ve got opposite strengths and weaknesses,  it Senga’s raw stuff was always undoubtedly MLB quality, whereas there are some questions there with Imanaga.

Im also surprised he didn’t get more, just because of the market. But it makes sense that Senga outdid him. 

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3 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Idk, Yamamoto is a hell of a lot better.

Admittedly, I haven’t watched nearly as much Imanaga (because it’s harder for me to get games from his league) as I have of both Yamamoto/Senga, but I’d put Imanaga below Senga pretty comfortably. It’s not a super fair comparison because they’ve got opposite strengths and weaknesses,  it Senga’s raw stuff was always undoubtedly MLB quality, whereas there are some questions there with Imanaga.

Im also surprised he didn’t get more, just because of the market. But it makes sense that Senga outdid him. 

I just don’t think $325M is a smart move even for the Dodgers, whereas if I were a Cubs fan I would be happy with this signing based on the risk reward. If he stays healthy, he will get $15M-$30M more, perhaps up to $50M. That’s where the 5 - 10 Xs comes into play. If the fWAR difference is 1-1.5 per year over the next 2-4 years, the Cubs win out and aren’t stuck, whereas 10 years for a pitching contract rarely if ever is a wise move.

Its the same with the Cease trade. The marginal performance difference between acquiring a similar starter in FA is far better than pissing away 2-4 top prospects. The “savings” from Cease’s combined $20M arb years is far less than the contract savings from the six years X the number of prospects you give away. It’s why smart teams trade for prospects and dumb ones like the Sox have consistently traded them for pitchers in their early to mid 30s. Hoping Getz reverses course on this strategery.

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1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I just don’t think $325M is a smart move even for the Dodgers, whereas if I were a Cubs fan I would be happy with this signing based on the risk reward. If he stays healthy, he will get $15M-$30M more, perhaps up to $50M. That’s where the 5 - 10 Xs comes into play. If the fWAR difference is 1-1.5 per year over the next 2-4 years, the Cubs win out and aren’t stuck, whereas 10 years for a pitching contract rarely if ever is a wise move.

Its the same with the Cease trade. The marginal performance difference between acquiring a similar starter in FA is far better than pissing away 2-4 top prospects. The “savings” from Cease’s combined $20M arb years is far less than the contract savings from the six years X the number of prospects you give away. It’s why smart teams trade for prospects and dumb ones like the Sox have consistently traded them for pitchers in their early to mid 30s. Hoping Getz reverses course on this strategery.

The cubs are paying Smyly $12 to be a swingman so I don’t mind this investment.

As for Cease I think the Sox will get a Kings ransom for him eventually, I just think it won’t be this winter. It’s certainly possible I just think the market isn’t as robust as it will be once the top guys like Montgomery and Snell sign at the very least. 
 

Once we are in season there is only one way to acquire talent and while there will probably be other similar pitchers on the market, Cease will have the advantage of being both affordable and under control for a second year. 
 

The downside of waiting is that Cease could get hurt or underperform. Even if he underperforms look at what Giolito brought in at the deadline. If he’s hurt and it’s not TJ you still get another crack next season. The upside is that he comes back to being the pitcher we know he can be and brings in a top 10-20 prospect (in the mlb) plus at the deadline. 

I would roll the dice and wait unless Getz is blown away by an offer. 

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less than I expected him to get paid, but he's probably a 4th or 5th starter honestly. he was "good" in JCL last season, very good K/BB ratio but his stats also look shockingly similar to Foster Griffin, a guy who will likely not pitch in the MLB again. he was probably better than his teammate Trevor Bauer though which should show people why he's not worth having on a MLB roster, why should your 5th starter be a headcase who 4 different women have accused of sexual assault?

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14 minutes ago, fathom said:

Apparently it came down to the Cubs and Pirates. Seems like everyone got scared off by his age and fly ball tendencies.

That's truly shocking.

Even the Pirates are willing to invest more into their future/s than the White Sox at this point.   Granted, everyone knew this "recoup last year's lost profits year" was coming down the pike.

And the White Sox rebuild potentially got lengthened out even more with the news that Robert will now be getting traded earlier than expected with Boras lurking at the end of the rainbow.

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On 1/9/2024 at 8:28 PM, champagne030 said:

Yeah, Kikuchi Lite or maybe if you squint really hard 2.0.

He’s not a lot like kikuchi, at least when Kikuchi first came over, though. Kikuchi always had command issues, threw harder than Imanaga does.

They are both fastball/slider heavy though. 

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