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GMs skeptical teams meet price for Robert


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16 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I agree.  If they don't trade him now and he gets hurt again before the end of the season (which is likely to happen) it will be almost impossible to get fair value for him during the off season.   He's healthy now so trade him for a good offer and move on. 

I hope we see basically a deadline bump and teams like Phillies and Mariners who have aggressive GM's basically play up Robert's price tag. Hopefully Robert helps the cause by playing well down the stretch. I have actually been surprised Sox haven't given him some rest days as I would have sprinkled some in just knowing he came back from that injury and it takes time to get timing back, etc.  Good thing is he has shown the massive power still.  

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3 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I hope we see basically a deadline bump and teams like Phillies and Mariners who have aggressive GM's basically play up Robert's price tag. Hopefully Robert helps the cause by playing well down the stretch. I have actually been surprised Sox haven't given him some rest days as I would have sprinkled some in just knowing he came back from that injury and it takes time to get timing back, etc.  Good thing is he has shown the massive power still.  

He just had a planned day off yesterday.

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All players come with risk. If Dombrowski offered Painter and Miller, they come with risks. Painter just had tj, Miller has performed but still in A:A+. In fact, if Robert is traded it will probably be for highly rated A/A+ level prospects. AA and AAA come with less risk. Miller (A+) and Mayo (AAA) are both 55s. Miller comes with more risk though because of less experience.

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

He just had a planned day off yesterday.

I was happy to see that. He still ended up coming in and pinch hitting though.  But at least they got him an off day.  Just seems like given he hasn't been on all cylinders and came back from an injury (and team is you know way out of contention) that they would have been a bit more prudent on his rest / load.  And this is coming from someone who isn't like some huge "load management" person.  

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I was happy to see that. He still ended up coming in and pinch hitting though.  But at least they got him an off day.  Just seems like given he hasn't been on all cylinders and came back from an injury (and team is you know way out of contention) that they would have been a bit more prudent on his rest / load.  And this is coming from someone who isn't like some huge "load management" person.  

Yeah, they’re not really playing for anything this year so they might as well have just given him the full day off I feel, if the plan is already to sit him to start the game anyway.

Edited by Bob Sacamano
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He's like a 4-6 WAR player assuming he averages 130 games played. He's got basically 3.5 years left at 60 million.  If you assume that cost of a win in FA is somewhere like 20 million these days you could project him for about 150 million in surplus value on the high end.

You have to get like a top 10 guy and then two back end top 75-100 types for that imo.

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44 minutes ago, joejoesox said:

if they're cautious (they don't think he will stay healthy) , why would they even entertain the idea of trading for him 

Oh there’s no doubt they’ll trade for him but don’t expect a package like the Nationals got for Soto a couple years ago.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I don’t like playing that game for an injury prone player (see again, Moncada).

I don't like operating a large market MLB franchise like cowards.  Get value for your players.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And trading Crochet 3 years ago would have been a disaster.

Exactly! Just like Cease had more value after 2022 or July 2023. That’s the point. Win some, lose some. There’s no right or wrong here and it’s a roll of the dice either way but the odds of Robert’s value increasing from here are less than it decreasing imo. Clearly, you have a different opinion and that’s fine.

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1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

I really feel like the Phillies are perfect trade partners. Ballsy GM. Three different top 50 up the middle position players down on the farm. It makes too much sense.

Give me Painter and Crawford and I’m driving Robert to the airport.

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5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Exactly! Just like Cease had more value after 2022 or July 2023. That’s the point. Win some, lose some. There’s no right or wrong here and it’s a roll of the dice either way but the odds of Robert’s value increasing from here are less than it decreasing imo. Clearly, you have a different opinion and that’s fine.

My point is we control a superstar potential asset for 3.5 years.  If you don't get what you want, you take the chance.  This isn't a guy who leaves in three months, or is limited ceiling.  Rick Hahn did this to perfection with Jose Quintana, waiting almost a full year past his initial other deals to do it.  I don't start worrying about depreciation on him until we hit 2 years of control.

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18 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He's like a 4-6 WAR player assuming he averages 130 games played. He's got basically 3.5 years left at 60 million.  If you assume that cost of a win in FA is somewhere like 20 million these days you could project him for about 150 million in surplus value on the high end.

You have to get like a top 10 guy and then two back end top 75-100 types for that imo.

He's played 130 games one time in 4 full seasons.  Has not even played 100 games the other 3 seasons (including this year where he almost certainly won't).

And lol at $20m per WAR in free agency.  

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1 minute ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

He's played 130 games one time in 4 full seasons.  Has not even played 100 games the other 3 seasons (including this year where he almost certainly won't).

And lol at $20m per WAR in free agency.  

It's back of a napkin math. I'd say it's going to be at least 15 million in 2025, who is to say it won't be 25 in 2027? Revenues are through the roof.

Regardless, if the return isn't there, you just hold him.

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6-7 years to reach sustained success is complete asinine, when rookies only need 6 years of service time to reach free agency

So what, all the call ups coming like Montgomery, Thorpe, Schultz  will also be gone or on their final arbitration year when they reach this so called window?   That would mean there is no sustained success at that point.  

Extending Crochet is a no brainer.  4 years guaranteed  at a fair amount (none of the club option bullshit) is something I'm sure Crochet would consider.    Start this contenting window in 2026.  

 

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21 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

My point is we control a superstar potential asset for 3.5 years.  If you don't get what you want, you take the chance.  This isn't a guy who leaves in three months, or is limited ceiling.  Rick Hahn did this to perfection with Jose Quintana, waiting almost a full year past his initial other deals to do it.  I don't start worrying about depreciation on him until we hit 2 years of control.

Cool. To each their own.

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13 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

6-7 years to reach sustained success is complete asinine, when rookies only need 6 years of service time to reach free agency

So what, all the call ups coming like Montgomery, Thorpe, Schultz  will also be gone or on their final arbitration year when they reach this so called window?   That would mean there is no sustained success at that point.  

Extending Crochet is a no brainer.  4 years guaranteed  at a fair amount (none of the club option bullshit) is something I'm sure Crochet would consider.    Start this contenting window in 2026.  

 

People are going to be really stunned with how long this thing is going to take.

There is no chance they extend Crochet, none. Already tried and apparently failed to get anywhere (what a shock).

This will be 5 years minimum, book it.

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2 minutes ago, T R U said:

People are going to be really stunned with how long this thing is going to take.

There is no chance they extend Crochet, none. Already tried and apparently failed to get anywhere (what a shock).

This will be 5 years minimum, book it.

Crochet has to want to he extended. 

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14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Crochet has to want to he extended. 

Im sure he wants to be extended, but we won't offer what that will take to get it done.

I know you get this, but seems like most others don't. Garrett Crochet is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball at this point in time. Hes not going to accept some $15 million a year sweetheart deal from the White Sox when he will be looking at $30 million a year in 2 seasons.

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