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GMs skeptical teams meet price for Robert


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I think Sox fans probably overvalue Robert and will be disappointed in any realistic return. At some point the production has to match the tools. He's 27, in his 5th year and has never had 600 PA's in a season. Even in his best season, his k:BB was atrocious. Obviously all the tools are there.

At this point in Mike Cameron's career, he was a consistent 5 WAR player that actually played in games. Robert's production isn't a better version of Mike Cameron.

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3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

I think Sox fans probably overvalue Robert and will be disappointed in any realistic return. At some point the production has to match the tools. He's 27, in his 5th year and has never had 600 PA's in a season. Even in his best season, his k:BB was atrocious. Obviously all the tools are there.

At this point in Mike Cameron's career, he was a consistent 5 WAR player that actually played in games. Robert's production isn't a better version of Mike Cameron.

I agree. If the Sox can get a 55 FV prospect and a couple 45 FV prospects in return, I’m taking it all day. 

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I agree. If the Sox can get a 55 FV prospect and a couple 45 FV prospects in return, I’m taking it all day. 

Not worth it, keep him and ride it out until the value increases. Those prospects aren’t moving the needle and he isn’t blocking anyone. This is one to be patient with. 

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3 hours ago, SkokieSox said:

Not worth it, keep him and ride it out until the value increases. Those prospects aren’t moving the needle and he isn’t blocking anyone. This is one to be patient with. 

Ok so they don't trade him at the deadline and he gets hurt in August and misses 6 weeks.  They won't get fair value for him during the off season so they wait until next years deadline and then he gets hurt again in April and misses another month.  When does it end? Do they just keep kicking the can down the road?   He's healthy now and there's a good market for him.  I think they have to move him because every time he gets hurt his value will decrease.  

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Ok so they don't trade him at the deadline and he gets hurt in August and misses 6 weeks.  They won't get fair value for him during the off season so they wait until next years deadline and then he gets hurt again in April and misses another month.  When does it end? Do they just keep kicking the can down the road?   He's healthy now and there's a good market for him.  I think they have to move him because every time he gets hurt his value will decrease.  

Yeah I don’t see them getting the haul people here think we will. Try to picture what you could get for him a year from now and see if that kind of offer is out there now. Accept a good offer before his value continues to decrease.

Edited by Bob Sacamano
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3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah I don’t see them getting the haul people here think we will. Try to picture what you could get for him a year from now and see if that kind of offer is out there now. Accept a good offer before his value continues to decrease.

If Robert puts in a 2023 type season (and he's certainly capable of more) in the first half of 2025, he's worth a lot more than he is right now.  There is no rush to take the best offer for Robert this July.  If someone gets aggressive and makes an offer you can't refuse, by all means trade him.  I certainly understand the risk in keeping him.  But he's still just 26 and his enormous upside potential - the value will always be there, and the control is long enough that they could even withstand a somewhat serious injury and still get a nice return in a couple years. 

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If Robert puts in a 2023 type season (and he's certainly capable of more) in the first half of 2025, he's worth a lot more than he is right now.  There is no rush to take the best offer for Robert this July.  If someone gets aggressive and makes an offer you can't refuse, by all means trade him.  I certainly understand the risk in keeping him.  But he's still just 26 and his enormous upside potential - the value will always be there, and the control is long enough that they could even withstand a somewhat serious injury and still get a nice return in a couple years. 

His contract isn’t exactly cheap as those option years come into play. Has to be factored into his future trade value in these discussions.

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3 hours ago, SkokieSox said:

Not worth it, keep him and ride it out until the value increases. Those prospects aren’t moving the needle and he isn’t blocking anyone. This is one to be patient with. 

But a 55 FV pitching prospect could turn into a solid #2 starter. I’d say that moves the needle.

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Posted (edited)

I really feel like the Phillies are perfect trade partners. Ballsy GM. Three different top 50 up the middle position players down on the farm. It makes too much sense.

Edited by DirtySox
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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His contract isn’t exactly cheap as those option years come into play. Has to be factored into his future trade value in these discussions.

It is factored in.  $18M AAV from 25-27 is a bargain for Robert.  Even factoring in his injury history, he's still over a 3 fWAR player the past four seasons with the upside for 5+ if he plays 150.  Imagine if he actually figure it all out.  Plus the last two years are options, so the acquiring team has protection for a brutal injury. 

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24 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Ok so they don't trade him at the deadline and he gets hurt in August and misses 6 weeks.  They won't get fair value for him during the off season so they wait until next years deadline and then he gets hurt again in April and misses another month.  When does it end? Do they just keep kicking the can down the road?   He's healthy now and there's a good market for him.  I think they have to move him because every time he gets hurt his value will decrease.  

Each perspective that is opposing has its solid logic.

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25 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Ok so they don't trade him at the deadline and he gets hurt in August and misses 6 weeks.  They won't get fair value for him during the off season so they wait until next years deadline and then he gets hurt again in April and misses another month.  When does it end? Do they just keep kicking the can down the road?   He's healthy now and there's a good market for him.  I think they have to move him because every time he gets hurt his value will decrease.  

What's a "good market" look like is the follow up question.

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12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His contract isn’t exactly cheap as those option years come into play. Has to be factored into his future trade value in these discussions.

If he is anywhere close to 2023 Robert, his contract is a bargain.

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11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is factored in.  $18M AAV from 25-27 is a bargain for Robert.  Even factoring in his injury history, he's still over a 3 fWAR player the past four seasons with the upside for 5+ if he plays 150.  Imagine if he actually figure it all out.  Plus the last two years are options, so the acquiring team has protection for a brutal injury. 

Surplus value is limited if he’s just a 3 WAR player on average and is unreliable from a health perspective. I can understand why opposing GMs would be cautious.

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5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If he is anywhere close to 2023 Robert, his contract is a bargain.

Just like if Cease is anywhere close to 2022 Cease he would have been one of the biggest bargains in baseball. But he’s not so can’t make that assumption.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Just like if Cease is anywhere close to 2022 Cease he would have been one of the biggest bargains in baseball. But he’s not so can’t make that assumption.

Then you use some of the 3.5 years of control you still have until it works. 

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3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I think Sox fans probably overvalue Robert and will be disappointed in any realistic return. At some point the production has to match the tools. He's 27, in his 5th year and has never had 600 PA's in a season. Even in his best season, his k:BB was atrocious. Obviously all the tools are there.

At this point in Mike Cameron's career, he was a consistent 5 WAR player that actually played in games. Robert's production isn't a better version of Mike Cameron.

Mike Cameron is probably the most similar, except he was consistently a gold glove CF. Robert has more power but fewer walks, while being inconsistent defensively from season to season. 

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3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I think Sox fans probably overvalue Robert and will be disappointed in any realistic return. At some point the production has to match the tools. He's 27, in his 5th year and has never had 600 PA's in a season. Even in his best season, his k:BB was atrocious. Obviously all the tools are there.

At this point in Mike Cameron's career, he was a consistent 5 WAR player that actually played in games. Robert's production isn't a better version of Mike Cameron.

I value him at 14 war over the next 3.5 years. That is ($9x14)-61=$65m in surplus value. I don’t sell for anything lower. Even with his injury history, he can give you 2 war in a season.

 

 

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On 7/8/2024 at 11:05 AM, Dick Allen said:

6 or 7 years is probably accurate, but with a good front office, and scouting, and development staff, it could take half of that.

This is like a bad skit. A franchise in the pathetic, cheap Central Division is expected to maybe be a contender in 6-7 years? This is almost impossible to believe. If this is true the Sox truly are the worst franchise in all of sports. Six or seven years??? How do they sell any tickets for this bumbling franchise? Can you imagine paying non Stubhub prices for a night at the ballpark to watch these clowns operate?

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I disagree with the panic selling on Robert.

Robert does get injured a lot. Guess what - he's in good company with center fielders.

But even with his approach, he's special for a true center fielder.

Since 2021, he's 5th in wRC+, so I'm including his up and down years.

1st - Aaron Judge, who has only played 15% of that time in CF.
2nd - Mike Trout, who has played 80 less games than Robert and is questionably a plus CF now
3rd - Brandon Nimmo - now a LFer, not as plus a defender as Robert
4th - Byron Buxton - has played 42 less games than Robert, losing strength as a fielder

That is the company Robert is in. And he's still comfortably a strong CF defender.

After him. Bryan Reynolds - healthier, also mostly LF, not a great defender. Julio Rodriguez - at Roberts level offensively, hasn't been what he was since rookie year offensively.

After that you continue to see marginal CF defenders or worse offensive players.

Robert - warts and all - is in special company with others who have similar weaknesses.

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4 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Mike Cameron is probably the most similar, except he was consistently a gold glove CF. Robert has more power but fewer walks, while being inconsistent defensively from season to season. 

Luis in his injury riddled career is a 125 OPS+ player.  Cameron was 106.  They are no where near the same universe as hitters. Cam's career best year of 123, is less than Roberts average of 125.  Lu's rookie year of 100 OPS+ is his career worst.

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13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Surplus value is limited if he’s just a 3 WAR player on average and is unreliable from a health perspective. I can understand why opposing GMs would be cautious.

He's been an average 3 WAR player WITH all the injuries.  That's the point.  Even if Robert averages ~115 games the from 2025-2027 and does not really improve on his average season from 21-24, he's still a bargain at $18M AAV.   You also have him for the last 2.5 months of 2024. 

But the acquiring team now holds all the upside, with cost certainly (and downside protection with the options), and putting him on a team that better prepares him to succeed won't hurt.  I can understand why an opposing GM would be cautious; Robert has never really fully figured it out and goes weeks without looking like he knows how to hit major league pitching and is often injured.  He is not a perfect player.  But he is certainly a player you can dream on, and even if he just is what he is, that is still a VERY valuable player.  

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Ok so they don't trade him at the deadline and he gets hurt in August and misses 6 weeks.  They won't get fair value for him during the off season so they wait until next years deadline and then he gets hurt again in April and misses another month.

So we fans are talking about him basically being unable to play consistently and we think GMs don't have the same concerns? Think of what you just wrote. You are pretty much conceding he'll never be healthy. If I'm a GM I pass unless I can get him for peanuts. Can you imagine we package Eloy and Robert in a "pray they can stay healthy" duo deal?

Edited by greg775
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23 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Surplus value is limited if he’s just a 3 WAR player on average and is unreliable from a health perspective. I can understand why opposing GMs would be cautious.

if they're cautious (they don't think he will stay healthy) , why would they even entertain the idea of trading for him 

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