https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/baltimore-orioles-owner-wants-a-salary-cap-in-mlb-says-the-business-community-is-hopeful-under-trump-180642112.html

Battle lines being drawn for two years from now.

Orioles in the middle, but sympathize more with medium and small markets.

 

That leaves just both NY teams, LAA, LAD, SFG, Boston Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Braves, Blue Jays as the obvious twelve big market teams.

Eighteen teams on the "other side of the tracks."

Seattle Minnesota SD St.Louis Colorado AZ all have closer natural ties to the bottom, but AZ has signed both Bumgarner and now Corbin Burnes. Nationals probably fit here as well based on past history/spending through 2019.  Colorado has strong and faithful fanbase despite inept directionless ownership.

 

That leaves another 11 on the bottom rung...

Milwaukee, TB, Marlins, Pirates, Reds, LV A's, White Sox, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Royals.

4/5ths of the AL Central and 3/5ths of the NL...so essentially the majority of imbalance spread across Midwest/Rust Belt.

Edited January 24, 20251 yr by caulfield12

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That leaves just both NY teams, LAA, LAD, SFG, Boston Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Braves, Blue Jays as the obvious twelve big market teams.

 

 

Let’s not buy into the narrative that we’ve been sold and perpetuate the idea that the Sox are not a big market team. They very much are (regardless of how they act).

It seems like you’re talking about payroll size and not market size?

14 minutes ago, Snopek said:

It seems like you’re talking about payroll size and not market size?

Right…team/organizational mentality, whatever you want to call it.

24 minutes ago, Sox72 said:

Let’s not buy into the narrative that we’ve been sold and perpetuate the idea that the Sox are not a big market team. They very much are (regardless of how they act).

Sure, but JR would absolutely love a cap/ceiling, just not a floor.

The other important part of this whole discussion is that the Players Union currently still exists.

What would even be a fair ceiling and floor? A floor would have to at least be $80M, no? Or $100M?

Edited January 24, 20251 yr by Bob Sacamano

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/56213-david-rubenstein-talks-baseball-at-the-world-economic-forum/
 

Already way ahead of us on this discussion…consensus is floor without cap does nothing, and wouldn’t be approved any more than a cap without a floor.

“Big 12” teams don’t want more revenue sharing for obvious reasons…dilution of franchise value.

NFL Parity discussion…Chiefs Pats vs. Astros Dodgers.

Small market teams almost have no chance to win it all…Marlins one of few counterexamples.

NFL success so driven by just one position now, QB.

 

Biggest issue is bottom half teams simply feeder teams for “Big 12”…see White Sox the last 2-3 seasons, but specifically the Crochet deal.  Teams with top farm systems just won’t give up Top 30ish and below of the Top 100 players anymore via trade.

Chiefs are small market team, or Packers, but equivalent of Dodgers or Yankees as NFL franchises…could never happen in MLB due to disparity caused by local broadcasting rights deals.

15 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

What would even be a fair ceiling and floor? A floor would have to at least be $80M, no? Or $100M?

$105 million is what the A’s have to reach…

Salary cap isn't going to fix anything. If its $80 / $250 the same teams that don't spend today will all be around $80 and the same teams that spend today will all be around $250.

Maybe it helps some, but its not going to fix the Dodgers from spending as much money as they can. It just means that instead of the Dodgers getting all these guys now the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets etc. get some of them instead. 

You don't get a cap without a floor, Baltimore.

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

Salary cap isn't going to fix anything. If its $80 / $250 the same teams that don't spend today will all be around $80 and the same teams that spend today will all be around $250.

Maybe it helps some, but its not going to fix the Dodgers from spending as much money as they can. It just means that instead of the Dodgers getting all these guys now the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets etc. get some of them instead. 

Yeah it's got to be a harder cap, deferrals to a minimum.

Show your books or shut up…that’s where I’m at with these owners crying poor. 
 

I don’t expect every team to be the Dodgers, but I’ll never believe these teams can’t turn a healthy profit spending $120+M on the roster 

4 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Show your books or shut up…that’s where I’m at with these owners crying poor. 
 

I don’t expect every team to be the Dodgers, but I’ll never believe these teams can’t turn a healthy profit spending $120+M on the roster 

Yeah agreed. Pirates, for example, have a $79M payroll and are in their competitive window now. Look at their young pitching staff. They should have gone out and grabbed say, Christian Walker who's from PA, since they had/have an opening at 1B. 

They could definitely afford a bat somewhere.

7 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Show your books or shut up…that’s where I’m at with these owners crying poor. 
 

I don’t expect every team to be the Dodgers, but I’ll never believe these teams can’t turn a healthy profit spending $120+M on the roster 

This is also part of the reason there hasn't been any movement towards an NBA style system - the players shouldn't trust the owners on their revenue numbers, and the owners aren't going to open their books for independent audits. 

17 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Show your books or shut up…that’s where I’m at with these owners crying poor. 
 

I don’t expect every team to be the Dodgers, but I’ll never believe these teams can’t turn a healthy profit spending $120+M on the roster 

As he speaks from WeF at a 5 star Swiss chalet/resort....

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is also part of the reason there hasn't been any movement towards an NBA style system - the players shouldn't trust the owners on their revenue numbers, and the owners aren't going to open their books for independent audits. 

They haven't since 1994 when the Stanford economist agreed upon by both the owners and the union destroyed the contention that 18 teams were "losing" money. Owners vowed to never do it again. 

5 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

What would even be a fair ceiling and floor? A floor would have to at least be $80M, no? Or $100M?

$100M floor at minimum. I like the idea of a floor with a penalty for not meeting a certain threshold tied to receiving Lux Tax monies. If cheap owners only want to meet the floor and not a certain minimum threshold, they lose Lux Tax payments. Owners would never agree to it, but a person can dream.

I am more in favor of an NBA style soft cap than a pure hard cap, but a combo of both makes sense to me. A $200M lux tax level 1 with a $250 hard cap, or something like that. A cap likely only affects a few teams, I am far more interested in making cheap owners spend.

Edited January 24, 20251 yr by Tnetennba

13 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

$100M floor at minimum. I like the idea of a floor with a penalty that any team not meeting a higher threshold for receiving Lux Tax monies. If cheap owners only want to meet the minimum threshold, they lose Lux Tax payments. Owners would never agree to it, but a person can dream.

I am more in favor of an NBA style soft cap than a pure hard cap, but a combo of both makes sense to me. A $200M lux tax level 1 with a $250 hard cap, or something like that. A cap likely only affects a few teams, I am far more interested in making cheap owners spend.

Just to illustrated what this did - in 2024, the numbers you added, $250 million hard cap, would lead to a $110 million payroll cut, while $70 million would get added to payrolls to bring teams up to $100 million, so a much larger salary cut than salary increase. On top of that, you've lowered the luxury tax level from $240 million to $200 million, so you've probably put 3 more teams into the tax penalty and made the other teams much less willing to spend - $200 million would have put the 2022-2023 White Sox into the tax.

For those numbers just to get things equal, you probably need the floor a lot higher and to also probably come up with a "low salary tax" - and the players aren't going to be ok with this from the start because the cap and floor cannot inflate faster than league revenues at any point. Unless you can get everyone on board and trust that revenues are being fully expressed honestly, I wouldn't go for that if I was the players either, you've clamped down on the high salary teams and barely tweaked the low salary ones.

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just to illustrated what this did - in 2024, the numbers you added, $250 million hard cap, would lead to a $110 million payroll cut, while $70 million would get added to payrolls to bring teams up to $100 million, so a much larger salary cut than salary increase. On top of that, you've lowered the luxury tax level from $240 million to $200 million, so you've probably put 3 more teams into the tax penalty and made the other teams much less willing to spend - $200 million would have put the 2022-2023 White Sox into the tax.

For those numbers just to get things equal, you probably need the floor a lot higher - and the players aren't going to be ok with this from the start because the cap and floor cannot inflate faster than league revenues at any point. Unless you can get everyone on board and trust that revenues are being fully expressed honestly, I wouldn't go for that if I was the players either, you've clamped down on the high salary teams and barely tweaked the low salary ones.

Obviously the numbers would need tweaking. A $300M hard cap only impacts a few teams, but $250 is probably too low if there are to be lux tax levels beneath it. I am honestly less in favor of a cap of any sort, but recognize it would probably be a requirement in order to get a salary floor. I firmly believe a floor brings about parity faster than a cap, but the chasm between the Dodgers and teams spending the bare minimum will only widen unless there are stricter parameters in place.

A cap and floor is what is needed.  Honestly, you are going to have make the Players Union miss time though to get them to agree to it.

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A cap and floor is what is needed.  Honestly, you are going to have make the Players Union miss time though to get them to agree to it.

Yeah I fear the 2027 season would be in danger.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A cap and floor is what is needed.  Honestly, you are going to have make the Players Union miss time though to get them to agree to it.

Based on history and the way things went during the last lockout the MLBPA will never under any circumstances agree to a salary cap. 

That is the one tenet that has continued since the mid 1960's when Marvin Miller took over. And the case can be made the MLBPA is the strongest union in the world.

Owners keep trying to chase this dream while their profits keep going up (cue Manfred's comments from a few months ago). The union isn't going to buy it in any way, shape or form. 

 

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah I fear the 2027 season would be in danger.

If it happens it happens, the Sox will still suck so unlike 1981, 1994 and the pandemic in 2020, it won't destroy a good season at least. 

7 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Based on history and the way things went during the last lockout the MLBPA will never under any circumstances agree to a salary cap. 

That is the one tenet that has continued since the mid 1960's when Marvin Miller took over. And the case can be made the MLBPA is the strongest union in the world.

Owners keep trying to chase this dream while their profits keep going up (cue Manfred's comments from a few months ago). The union isn't going to buy it in any way, shape or form. 

 

The average MLB fan age has trended downward to 43.

Attendance/revenue/ratings (hello Yankees Dodgers) are up across the board.

Meanwhile NBA and men's college BB trending in the opposite direction...down 12-28% across various platforms.