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Luis Robert trade thread: La Pantera stays.


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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

In today's game $20M doesn't get you much.  They can get a guy with less than half the upside of Robert for may 60-70% of the AAV, but you may have to commit multiple years.  I know Sox fans have soured on Robert - and for good reason - but $20M for him is not a bad number. If Sox (or whoever he gets traded to) buys him out (unlikey), I bet he'd easily surpass 5/$100M. 

What in the world? They can't even trade him as of right now, if he could command a 5/100 deal he would be on someone else's team right now.

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9 minutes ago, T R U said:

What in the world? They can't even trade him as of right now, if he could command a 5/100 deal he would be on someone else's team right now.

They absolutely could trade him right now. For low end prospects. 

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11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Of course it wouldn't, but that doesn't matter to JR. They can use that money elsewhere.

I guess the question is would he use that 20m elsewhere or not?

If he is.....is it on 3 scrubs rather than one really good player? 

If he will somehow pay Robert but otherwise would pocket the money, I think we know which alternative we prefer.

This is not a good outcome but at least the baseball team will benefit in 26 with him in CF rather than Taylor or Baldwin.

I'm reaching for positivity I know

 

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15 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

In today's game $20M doesn't get you much.  That can get you a guy with less than half the upside of Robert for maybe60-70% of the AAV, but you may have to commit multiple years.  I know Sox fans have soured on Robert - and for good reason - but $20M for him is not a bad number. If Sox (or whoever he gets traded to) buys him out (unlikely imo), I bet he'd easily surpass 5/$100M on the open market. 

Of course it doesn’t.  But to Jerry, it’s a lot of money.  The Sox largest contract ever (Benintendi’s) includes no annual salaries of $20 million.  Robert will cost $22 million to bring back for next season — $20 million salary and a $2 million buyout for 2027.

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6 minutes ago, Baron said:

They absolutely could trade him right now. For low end prospects. 

Yes, they could give him away right now if they wanted to. I meant more like if he hit the open market this offseason and could command a 5/100 deal he would have been traded for something not trash by now.

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6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Imagine not being able to move Houser and Civale and letting them walk for nothing.

There's still over an hour to, ill believe it when I see it that they couldn't move any of these guys. I find it hard to believe.

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9 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Imagine not being able to move Houser and Civale and letting them walk for nothing.

Still an hour. Trust me if Houser is still here I won't be happy too. 

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I don't think LouBob would get a 5-year offer as a free agent but I also don't think he'd accept an offer with a team option attached so it's a little tricky to play out all the hypotheticals. My best guess is he'd take a contract in the 1 year, $10-15M range in the offseason if Sox didn't pick up his option. Michael Conforto got $17M for 1 year this offseason so it's possible I'm undershooting it.

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16 minutes ago, T R U said:

What in the world? They can't even trade him as of right now, if he could command a 5/100 deal he would be on someone else's team right now.

Lol, they definitely could trade him.  They are trying to actually acquire meaningful pieces, not give him away.  Teams do stupid things in free agency because they don't actually have to give away anything but money. 

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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol, they definitely could trade him.  They are trying to actually acquire meaningful pieces, not give him away.  Teams do stupid things in free agency because they don't actually have to give away anything but money. 

Sorry, I thought it was obvious I meant they cant trade him for something other than scraps. It was to be relevant to his value. If you had a player that was going to be a FA after the season and his valuation was 5/100 I am pretty sure you could move that player at the deadline for something meaningful. 

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13 minutes ago, Jake said:

I don't think LouBob would get a 5-year offer as a free agent but I also don't think he'd accept an offer with a team option attached so it's a little tricky to play out all the hypotheticals. My best guess is he'd take a contract in the 1 year, $10-15M range in the offseason if Sox didn't pick up his option. Michael Conforto got $17M for 1 year this offseason so it's possible I'm undershooting it.

You're way undershooting it.  Robert does a lot of things really well even if he doesn't hit any better than he has last couple years.  And he's 27. 

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11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You're way undershooting it.  Robert does a lot of things really well even if he doesn't hit any better than he has last couple years.  And he's 27. 

There's been a serious "missing middle class" in MLB free agency so I find it hard to price in guys, like Robert, who would fit into that middle class. Especially since he would be unlikely to seek a long-term contract (IMO), there's only a small number of teams who would likely be interested in paying top dollar for a 1-year deal since there's no upside if your team misses the playoffs

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Judging from the Mullins return, lets just hold onto him. We have zero payroll going into next year. 

If he bounces back to a plus 800 hitter, he will be worth so much more. I know thats a big IF, but the alternative is the Cedric Mullins return which is blah anyways. 

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6 minutes ago, Jake said:

There's been a serious "missing middle class" in MLB free agency so I find it hard to price in guys, like Robert, who would fit into that middle class. Especially since he would be unlikely to seek a long-term contract (IMO), there's only a small number of teams who would likely be interested in paying top dollar for a 1-year deal since there's no upside if your team misses the playoffs

Look at it like this, the White Sox just offered up Robert to every team in the league for essentially a 1/20 deal and no one is interested it would seem.

And to be completely fair, I have no idea what type of money exchanging hands was discussed or what was actually offered. For all I know, they DID get a reasonable offer but refused to budge from their ask.

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9 minutes ago, T R U said:

Look at it like this, the White Sox just offered up Robert to every team in the league for essentially a 1/20 deal and no one is interested it would seem.

And to be completely fair, I have no idea what type of money exchanging hands was discussed or what was actually offered. For all I know, they DID get a reasonable offer but refused to budge from their ask.

Again, you're failing to include the prospect return in your analysis.

1/20 + meaningful prospects Sox are asking for is much different than $20M AAV on the FA market.  

Anthony Santander - for example - who has accumulated 5 fWAR LESS than Robert in his career in over 300 more games than Robert just got 5/$94M last offseason.  Santander is a poor defender, a poor baserunner and 3 years older than Robert. 

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