Genuine progress

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, nrockway said:

It's a good point. I was just glancing through baseball reference and there are some guys who you might consider to be solid (it's a stretch) but they're almost all entirely pitchers. Pretty much everyone in the staff this season is a late round pick. Maybe Romy Gonzalez is turning a corner. Brooks might be a solid player.

I think the difference is, and it's yet to be proven, there are some pretty nice position players in the system currently that were picked after the first round. Bonemer is the key one, he has star potential IMO. I really like Fauske, Hodge, Lodise and Ely Brown out of this year's draft. Ely Brown is my new favorite minor leaguer. Very early to say. Antonacci looks very solid. DePino and Wolkow have some potential. Those are just the position players. Obviously we'll see what happens. 

Nick McLain and Casey Saucke are good hitters, and should have moved quickly through the system. Too bad they both missed the year with injuries. 

[nrockway]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Nick McLain and Casey Saucke are good hitters, and should have moved quickly through the system. Too bad they both missed the year with injuries. 

I was thinking about adding them to my list. I don't really know anything about Saucke but McLain is kind of a stud although not super impressive at Kannapolis. 

[chitownsportsfan]

Some interesting stuff here: Sox are 25th in xwOBA, they are 2nd in LA, they are 18th in barrel rate and 17th in hard hit rate. Last year the Sox were 19th in LA but ranked bottom 3 at best in the other three. The xwOBA still isn't where you want it but at least some underlying stats that will need to be there for any decent offense have moved from awful to mediocre.

 

[nrockway]

9 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Some interesting stuff here: Sox are 25th in xwOBA, they are 2nd in LA, they are 18th in barrel rate and 17th in hard hit rate. Last year the Sox were 19th in LA but ranked bottom 3 at best in the other three. The xwOBA still isn't where you want it but at least some underlying stats that will need to be there for any decent offense have moved from awful to mediocre.

 

Good stuff. Looking at that same list, since the break, Sox are 6th in WOBA/9th in xWOBA. 5th in LA, 13th in barrel, 18th in hard hit.

The underlying metrics are cause for optimism since the call-ups!! A lot of this can be repeated next season...we might actually have a good offense especially if Luis is still with the team and can somewhat replicate what he did his first four seasons. Patience and power plus some batting average guys sprinkled in. It's just too bad the lineup isn't more balanced. A bit of glut in the infield and at the catcher position.

The corners are still kinda scary although Braden ought to be a nice addition to eventually replace Tauch. If Luis is traded, who knows what CF will have in store. Dru Baker and Jacob Burke seem like the most "ready" CFs in the system and neither guy is good. A couple of guys who could be something by 2027. Would love to get Kevin Alcantara from the Cubs somehow. 

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Good stuff. Looking at that same list, since the break, Sox are 6th in WOBA/9th in xWOBA. 5th in LA, 13th in barrel, 18th in hard hit.

The underlying metrics are cause for optimism since the call-ups!! A lot of this can be repeated next season...we might actually have a good offense especially if Luis is still with the team and can somewhat replicate what he did his first four seasons. Patience and power plus some batting average guys sprinkled in. It's just too bad the lineup isn't more balanced. A bit of glut in the infield and at the catcher position.

The corners are still kinda scary although Braden ought to be a nice addition to eventually replace Tauch. If Luis is traded, who knows what CF will have in store. Dru Baker and Jacob Burke seem like the most "ready" CFs in the system and neither guy is good. A couple of guys who could be something by 2027. Would love to get Kevin Alcantara from the Cubs somehow. 

It's funny the split, but worthwhile to do because we have quite a few different players in the second half.

But for me it's funny because the point of this post is actually a bit in free fall. Walk rate post ASB has been much lower - in part due to Colson's poor walk rate, Meidroth not walking as much and being injured, and Vargas injuries. By end of sept would be funny if we were at same spot.

But, second half saw strike out rate go WAY down while power went way UP. That's worthwhile.

[nrockway]

21 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's funny the split, but worthwhile to do because we have quite a few different players in the second half.

But for me it's funny because the point of this post is actually a bit in free fall. Walk rate post ASB has been much lower - in part due to Colson's poor walk rate, Meidroth not walking as much and being injured, and Vargas injuries. By end of sept would be funny if we were at same spot.

But, second half saw strike out rate go WAY down while power went way UP. That's worthwhile.

I debated even making the post because it's a small sample and looks pretty different if you make it 'July 4', 'August 1', etc., but was trying to highlight hitters who will probably be here next season and not so much the Amayas, Capras, Matons of the world. 

Colson's 'eye' was one of his most impressive skill in the minors and it looks like it's starting to come on, likely as opponent pitching is adjusting to his wacky power and he's taking what he's being given. I wrote in one of the game threads, it's probably better in the long run that he's walking and hitting singles and not pacing 60 home runs per 162 games. I mean that would be wonderful, but he's probably not a 60 homer kinda guy. His BB rate in Sept is 13.333% up from 6% in August and 7.4% in July. 6 walks each month but September is not even halfway over. Chase is paralleling that, 5 walks in each of September, August and July. 

Faced some pretty bad-to-average pitching this month besides Skubal. So yeah, we'll see what the rest of the season holds especially with Vargas back. I'd argue that Sosa is even looking more patient.

Edited September 12 by nrockway

[superchops70]

Is B Montgomery on the opening day roster next year?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, superchops70 said:

Is B Montgomery on the opening day roster next year?

No.

[chitownsportsfan]

29 minutes ago, superchops70 said:

Is B Montgomery on the opening day roster next year?

If he has an insane AFL and spring he'd probably start in Charlotte but no chance he makes the opening day roster. Best case he forces his way up by July.

[Kyyle23]

32 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If he has an insane AFL and spring he'd probably start in Charlotte but no chance he makes the opening day roster. Best case he forces his way up by July.

I wouldn’t say “no chance”, if he is non roster invitee next spring and just flat out shows he can hang, I wouldn’t put it past them to push the envelope with him.  It’s not likely, but there isn’t a lot of guys at the major league level who are blocking him and Getz has made a lot of call ups this season that make me think he would be willing if he believes the player can do it 

[PaleAleSox]

I think he will be up in May.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Is he playing in AFL still? Will he be back from the foot injury in time?

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, PaleAleSox said:

I think he will be up in May.  

Assuming all goes right, yeah something like May/June seems on the if things go well side.

[chitownsportsfan]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Is he playing in AFL still? Will he be back from the foot injury in time?

Report said 4 weeks in a walking boot and should be ready to restart baseball activities and play in the AFL.

[Timmy U]

Montgomery still has a lot of holes and is real streaky with the K's. I have no idea if he'll be up early next year. I think there's one scenario in which he closes a few holes and rockets into right field. There's another another where the further he goes up, the more the holes get exploited. That may delay things. He's a good enough defender that .240 with decent power is a major leaguer, though. OTOH, I think Bonemer is going to move incredibly fast. Scouts don't like how little movement there is in his swing, but it works and there are very few moving parts. He could be up by May 2027. And I would not be surprised if they stuck him in the outfield if there's still the huge glut of infielders. Guy's a good athlete.

[Rounding_Third]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:56 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The White Sox have the second worst record in MLB.

No S***!  How is it since the all star break?  How is the Crochet trade working out?

[Rounding_Third]

On 9/8/2025 at 2:00 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

The greatest trick Getz ever played was anchoring expectations of 120 losses in year one. I'm not kidding. As I said I'll give him a solid C+ for this season but dude since he took over we're like 90 and 200. 

What's our record since the all star break?  You're right, the Crochet trade was a bust, what was I thinking!

Edited September 16 by Rounding_Third

[FloydBannister1983]

4 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:

What's our record since the all star break?  You're right, the Crochet trade was a bust, what was I thinking!

They’re 22 in the league post all star break and will most likely drop to 26 before the weekend.

The post all star break record is not a hill to die on.

[Ducksnort]

4 hours ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

They’re 22 in the league post all star break and will most likely drop to 26 before the weekend.

The post all star break record is not a hill to die on.

They've really fallen off the wagon after a decent start to the 2nd half. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 hours ago, Rounding_Third said:

No S***!  How is it since the all star break?  How is the Crochet trade working out?

Well crochet is going to finish top 2 in Cy Young voting. 

So far, Teel has been the only guy that I can say confidently is a guy. Monty might be one too, but needs to prove it. Garrett is a unicorn.

Edited September 17 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[caulfield12]

fWAR totals

Meidroth 2.1

Teel 2.0

Montgomery 1.9

Sosa 1.2

Vargas 1.1

Quero 0.1

Baldwin -0.6

total=7.8

 

Garrett Crochet 5.5

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

fWAR totals

Meidroth 2.1

Teel 2.0

Montgomery 1.9

Sosa 1.2

Vargas 1.1

Quero 0.1

Baldwin -0.6

total=7.8

 

Garrett Crochet 5.5

Meidroth and Teel have combined to play 181 games, a little more than a full season. Getting 4.1 WAR out of them for a little over a full season combined in their rookie year is a tremendous outcome. Now the question is can they build off that in coming years? If so, the Crochet trade is a huge win even if Braden Montgomery amounts to nothing.

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Meidroth and Teel have combined to play 181 games, a little more than a full season. Getting 4.1 WAR out of them for a little over a full season combined in their rookie year is a tremendous outcome. Now the question is can they build off that in coming years? If so, the Crochet trade is a huge win even if Braden Montgomery amounts to nothing.

Not if they never get out of fifth place.

The impact of one Cy Young winner on an organization is worth a lot more than 1.5 fWAR points.

Where would the Tigers be without Skubal, or the Royals without Witt?  The Twins without Buxton, etc.

You still need star players for White Sox fans to get really excited and believe in their team.

Even guys like Sale and Abreu weren't enough...because the roster was pretty mediocre from #11-25.

Without Braden...you don't have a genuine middle of the order hitter to supplement Teel and Colson.  You need to have at least 3.  Arguably four wI think a below average rotation and pen.

Right now they're more like 1 1/2...Colson needs to be a lot closer to 240 than 200.  That strikeout rate is just crazy the last weeks or so.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Meidroth and Teel have combined to play 181 games, a little more than a full season. Getting 4.1 WAR out of them for a little over a full season combined in their rookie year is a tremendous outcome. Now the question is can they build off that in coming years? If so, the Crochet trade is a huge win even if Braden Montgomery amounts to nothing.

A huge win? I don't think most people here understand how valuable a 6 WAR arm is. Rarity alone means chase meidroth isnt really adding much in my opinion. 

Getting league average to below average players for an elite talent isnt a win. Thankfully it looks like Teel is going to be a guy so thats a plus!

If meidroth and Teel were all they had to show for a top 3 arm, unless Teel becomes a HOF catcher, that certainly wouldnt be a huge win.

[T R U]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A huge win? I don't think most people here understand how valuable a 6 WAR arm is. Rarity alone means chase meidroth isnt really adding much in my opinion. 

Getting league average to below average players for an elite talent isnt a win. Thankfully it looks like Teel is going to be a guy so thats a plus!

If meidroth and Teel were all they had to show for a top 3 arm, unless Teel becomes a HOF catcher, that certainly wouldnt be a huge win.

What you're saying isn't wrong in general but its definitely wrong in terms of the White Sox of today.

The White Sox of today are never going to re-enforce the roster around that elite talent. If Teel and Montgomery become 3-4 WAR players with Meidroth a 2-3 WAR player and Gonzalez being a usable arm on the MLB team that is far more valuable to the Sox than a 6 WAR pitcher who is surrounded by underperformers, journeyman, or mid tier free agents.

The Sox were never going to resign Crochet anyways, so you either get 4 chances to get good contributors to your team or you let him walk away and get 1 comp pick. 

So the jury is still out if it becomes a huge win, because it certainly could if all 4 of those guys pan out, but it will be a win regardless because there was never a chance the Sox were going to keep Crochet here and they pretty much got a max return for him.