41 minutes ago, Quin said:

I remember when the Astros and Marlins tricked themselves into thinking Aiken and Kolek would be better than Rodon.

Obviously Rodon didn't live up to his ceiling, but 22 fWAR isn't anything to sneeze at.

I think the view was that Rodon was almost unsignable. He wanted the Sun, the Moon and the Stars. The Sox signed him last and wentright up to about $5k of the "lose next year's 1st rounder" limit.

Marlins were desperately trying to save money. They didn't even spend their entire pool and traded their competitive balance pick before the draft to further lessen their obligations. Astros were trying to get cute with the pool and got burned on that go-around. Some folks got cold feet about Carlos thanks to his last college season not being quite as good as the previous (at least with regard to his strikeout rate and total baserunners). Sox didn't get cute and I think Carlos was the right pick given the info available. Sox ultimately experienced the inherent risk of taking a pitcher in that it took a long time to get a healthy version of Carlos in MLB...and not long after that, he was out the door as a free agent.

I've seen a lot of chatter about Roch's batting splits (which, I should emphasize, are uniformly small sample size and hard to take seriously).

Roch in 3 games against SEC: .273/.357/.636, .994 OPS

Roch in 14 games against RPI top 50: .382/.485/.782, 1.267 OPS

Roch in 24 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .337/.492/.696, 1.188 OPS

Roch in 12 games on Fridays (i.e., against opposing ace): .255/.413/.489, .902 OPS

Roch in 8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100 opponents: .364/.488/.697, 1.185 OPS

So to me, not obvious that he shrivels up and dies against good opponents or is particularly feasting on bad opponents.

Some additional commentary that his numbers year over year are very similar. I'll note that these splits were very different last season...

3 games against SEC: .077/.077/.077, .154 OPS

23 games against RPI top 50: .273/.383/.455, .838 OPS

29 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .293/.390/.517, .907 OPS

15 games on Fridays: .276/.405/.517, .923 OPS

8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100: .167/.257/.367, .624 OPS

While I wouldn't advise taking any of it too seriously, it is descriptively true that under the hood his 2026 production has shifted more towards hitting well against good competition.

9 minutes ago, Jake said:

I've seen a lot of chatter about Roch's batting splits (which, I should emphasize, are uniformly small sample size and hard to take seriously).

Roch in 3 games against SEC: .273/.357/.636, .994 OPS

Roch in 14 games against RPI top 50: .382/.485/.782, 1.267 OPS

Roch in 24 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .337/.492/.696, 1.188 OPS

Roch in 12 games on Fridays (i.e., against opposing ace): .255/.413/.489, .902 OPS

Roch in 8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100 opponents: .364/.488/.697, 1.185 OPS

So to me, not obvious that he shrivels up and dies against good opponents or is particularly feasting on bad opponents.

Some additional commentary that his numbers year over year are very similar. I'll note that these splits were very different last season...

3 games against SEC: .077/.077/.077, .154 OPS

23 games against RPI top 50: .273/.383/.455, .838 OPS

29 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .293/.390/.517, .907 OPS

15 games on Fridays: .276/.405/.517, .923 OPS

8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100: .167/.257/.367, .624 OPS

While I wouldn't advise taking any of it too seriously, it is descriptively true that under the hood his 2026 production has shifted more towards hitting well against good competition.

Great post.

44 minutes ago, Jake said:

I've seen a lot of chatter about Roch's batting splits (which, I should emphasize, are uniformly small sample size and hard to take seriously).

Roch in 3 games against SEC: .273/.357/.636, .994 OPS

Roch in 14 games against RPI top 50: .382/.485/.782, 1.267 OPS

Roch in 24 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .337/.492/.696, 1.188 OPS

Roch in 12 games on Fridays (i.e., against opposing ace): .255/.413/.489, .902 OPS

Roch in 8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100 opponents: .364/.488/.697, 1.185 OPS

So to me, not obvious that he shrivels up and dies against good opponents or is particularly feasting on bad opponents.

Some additional commentary that his numbers year over year are very similar. I'll note that these splits were very different last season...

3 games against SEC: .077/.077/.077, .154 OPS

23 games against RPI top 50: .273/.383/.455, .838 OPS

29 games against RPI Q1 + Q2: .293/.390/.517, .907 OPS

15 games on Fridays: .276/.405/.517, .923 OPS

8 games on Fridays against RPI top 100: .167/.257/.367, .624 OPS

While I wouldn't advise taking any of it too seriously, it is descriptively true that under the hood his 2026 production has shifted more towards hitting well against good competition.

You should tweet these numbers so I can retweet them without stealing it haha

UCLA-Oregon on Big 10 Network at 9.

Beat out infield single. I want to know why the hitters look in the stands behind home plate. What’s there for them?

4 hours ago, flavum said:

Beat out infield single. I want to know why the hitters look in the stands behind home plate. What’s there for them?

Girlfriends families scouts … groupies I guess aren’t described with that word in 2026, what’s the politically correct term besides fans/followers?

9 hours ago, flavum said:

Beat out infield single. I want to know why the hitters look in the stands behind home plate. What’s there for them?

They imitate what big leaguers do on TV. Happens in every sport to some degree.

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

They imitate what big leaguers do on TV. Happens in every sport to some degree.

No, I’m talking about during the at-bat, every pitch. What the hell is he looking at?

They’re on Big 10 again tonight at 8:30.

Get ready to hear that he wants to go to the Giants

4 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Won’t stop the idiots in the media

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Get ready to hear that he wants to go to the Giants

Yeah it just doesn't matter all that much. Whoever the Sox decide to take won't be turning down what they offer. And they likely don't seriously start talking money until like 24-48 hours before the draft.

I should know the answer to this, but I don't: If a third-year college guy registers for the draft, gets drafted, gets offered slot value or more, can he refuse to sign and still play college ball the next year?

35 minutes ago, oldsox said:

I should know the answer to this, but I don't: If a third-year college guy registers for the draft, gets drafted, gets offered slot value or more, can he refuse to sign and still play college ball the next year?

Yes, he can.

I hope they take Roch. He'll be in the bigs quickly. I don't want to wait anymore. While they're at it, they

can tear up Muni's contract and open the vault.

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

I should know the answer to this, but I don't: If a third-year college guy registers for the draft, gets drafted, gets offered slot value or more, can he refuse to sign and still play college ball the next year?

I wouldn't worry about it too much. The Sox are trending in the right direction again. We really have a chance to be good soon.

Homer

9 weeks til we draft him.

Another one

Hypothetically, I wonder if the WSox would even consider trading Roch for premier pitching- i.e., Skenes, Misiorowski etc. That might be heresy for some fans, but the Sox have pretty decent infield talent at all levels and they could sorely use an established Ace in order to compete, if/when they make the playoffs.

2 hours ago, tray said:

Hypothetically, I wonder if the WSox would even consider trading Roch for premier pitching- i.e., Skenes, Misiorowski etc. That might be heresy for some fans, but the Sox have pretty decent infield talent at all levels and they could sorely use an established Ace in order to compete, if/when they make the playoffs.

I don’t endorse trading him or the field, but I endorse the alternative idea discussion which is a needful attacking of the rotation instead of a focus on loading up more in the infield. It’s a great problem to have, but we can have the conversation.