Can the this team be competitive in 2026?

[thxfrthmmrs]

So much of the last rebuild had planned around the competitive window starting around 2020 when young guys like Moncada, Eloy, Robert, Cease, Kopech, and Dunning supplementing vets like Abreu, TA, Gio, and Reylo. But players failed to live up to the hype and/or stay healthy, clubhouse lacked leadership, team also got expensive quickly with no one from the farm ready to step up, and the window was slammed close before you know it.

As for the current direction of this team, initially many had expected that this team couldn’t compete until 2028 at the earliest given the historically bad the 2024 team. Twelve months later, with the arrival of Colton, Teel, and Quero, supplemented by a couple of solid, if unspectacular young bats, in Vargas, Sosa, and Baldwin, and hitting a homerun with the Rule 5 pick of Smith, and top prospects poised for getting the call, Sox looks like they have a chance to compete by 2027.

My question here is could the Sox be competitive even in 2026, play .500 or better ball and stay in the WC hunt for better part of the summer? Some of this could reactionary to having Murakami on the roster for next 2 years, and huge question mark on whether he even makes this team any better. But if say a couple of young hitters takes a step forward, the likes of Burke, Martin, and Cannon continue to put up 4.20 ish ERA despite questionable peripherals, and we get second half re-enforcements from likes of Braden, Schultz, Hagen, Thorpe, how far off is this team from being .500 team or slightly better?

I’m using 2022 Orioles as a recent comp. They got a +31 win YoY (52 to 83) with arrival of Adley and increased contributions from younger guys having mini breakout (Santander, Urias, Mateo), and going from the worst rotation in the league to having a below average one. They then went on to win 101 games in 2023 with arrival of Gunnar.

As it stands the 2026 Sox is sitting at $96M payroll factoring all the benefits, that’s about $40M lower than their 2024 OD payroll for context. It’s not crazy to imagine having room to spend on a #2 or 3 starter along with a late inning option to solidify the bullpen, especially with some level of financial backing from Ishbia this year. If we could do just that, this team could become competitive a lot sooner than we had originally thought, perhaps as early as this year. If there is one thing the last rebuild has taught us, expected the unexpected, the “competitive window” could come and go a lot sooner than what we’re planning for, we need to consistently accumulate assets at both major and minor league level to stretch this window and avoid spending years as a bottom feeder.

[Lip Man 1]

Depends on your definition of competitive I think. 

Could they not lose 100 games this year? Maybe, it all depends on pitching and if they can keep guys healthy.

The starting rotation is still basically unproven and the bullpen is still a mess.

And let's not forget the injury situation which has gutted them since around 2018 when four players making their MLB debut couldn't even make it through their first game without getting seriously hurt.

They have the benefit of playing in a mediocre division though. 

If they only lose 90 games this year that would be a "success".

[Lukakke Appling]

If 2026 kind of mirrors 2019, I think that would be a realistic positive step. 

[WestEddy]

I've been saying for a while - the Sox played at a 70-win pace after the ASB. I thought just a couple of acquisitions could augment the growth of the 'core' to push them up to 75 wins, or thereabouts. If they follow through with a mid-level, established starter, maybe keep or replace Robert with an ML average OF and everything breaks right for them, I would not be surprised by 81-83 wins. But that's like buying 5 scratch-offs and having all 5 hit. 

Kay could certainly be a step up from Cannon/Burke/Gomez, but replicating Fedde's 24 is a huge ask. Even Houser's total output paced over a full season would be Christmas morning. To be competitive, a couple of Smith/Davis/Burke/Schultz/Hagen would really have to blow up and become dominant. And then Monty/Teel would have to look like 4-WAR contributors over a season. Vargas/Baldwin/Murakami/Meidroth would all have to step up and be above average. The bullpen would have to snap to, and Leasure/Taylor/Vasil/Wikelman - all get solid, maybe with a closer pushing them all into slightly lower leverage rolls. 

That's asking Getz to check every item off his todo list, every one of them hitting, and most (if not all) of the 'established' starters continuing to progress - and then they could get over 85 wins and get knocked out in the first round. 

[thxfrthmmrs]

16 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I've been saying for a while - the Sox played at a 70-win pace after the ASB. I thought just a couple of acquisitions could augment the growth of the 'core' to push them up to 75 wins, or thereabouts. If they follow through with a mid-level, established starter, maybe keep or replace Robert with an ML average OF and everything breaks right for them, I would not be surprised by 81-83 wins. But that's like buying 5 scratch-offs and having all 5 hit. 

Kay could certainly be a step up from Cannon/Burke/Gomez, but replicating Fedde's 24 is a huge ask. Even Houser's total output paced over a full season would be Christmas morning. To be competitive, a couple of Smith/Davis/Burke/Schultz/Hagen would really have to blow up and become dominant. And then Monty/Teel would have to look like 4-WAR contributors over a season. Vargas/Baldwin/Murakami/Meidroth would all have to step up and be above average. The bullpen would have to snap to, and Leasure/Taylor/Vasil/Wikelman - all get solid, maybe with a closer pushing them all into slightly lower leverage rolls. 

That's asking Getz to check every item off his todo list, every one of them hitting, and most (if not all) of the 'established' starters continuing to progress - and then they could get over 85 wins and get knocked out in the first round. 

From a WAR perspective, the collective output of some of the worst bats who saw considerable playing time - Vaughn, Rojas, Palacios, Amaya put up a whopping -6.0 WAR, while Civale and Cannon accounted for another -1.0 WAR on the starting pitching side. Replacing those with Murakami, and current projected bench players Sosa, Lee, Hill who all were on positive side of the WAR ledger, along with Kay who should at least be better than Civale or Cannon, could be a 10 WAR swing in itself.

What I had noted in the OP, beyond Kay, we need a solid #2 or 3 type of guy along with another late inning high leverage arm to make this at least a respectable staff.

Of course, a bit part of getting back to playing winning baseball would rely some of the other young, core guys taking another step forward, and building a winning and competitive culture in the clubhouse to maximize the talent on the roster. This to me would be the biggest factor in how fast this team can get back on track.

I was using the 2022 Orioles as an example, but of course that level of win increase doesn’t happen often. However I do see the pieces being in place along with 1 or 2 more key FA additions that could make it a possibility.

 

[nrockway]

I'm not expecting a whole lot, but I'd echo Eddy's sentiment that the team wasn't completely unwatchable after the prospects came up and we look to have a lot fewer Maton/Capra/Amaya/Noda types stinking up the place. Biggest question mark to me is the outfield, wide range of outcomes leaning toward really bad, whereas I think the pitching staff could be about average and I think Burke specifically might take a big step forward. Would still like it if we could solidify the rotation a bit with a free agent but I'd also be cool with just throwing guys like McDougal, Murphy, Thorpe out there and seeing what happens. I still think it's a "see what we got" kinda year, but I also don't think this team is too far off the Tigers and Guardians, especially if all the young guys take a step forward from last season. 

[T R U]

No, this team will not be competitive in 2026. It would take a historical event for this team to be competitive in the true sense of the term. 

What is the average win total for those teams the following season?

Through the end of the 2025 season, teams posted an average win total of 68 the year after losing 100 games.

How many teams finished the season after they lost 100 or more games with a record above .500?

Of the 91 teams with 100 or more losses from 1961-2023, 13 finished the next season above .500:

[WestEddy]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

From a WAR perspective, the collective output of some of the worst bats who saw considerable playing time - Vaughn, Rojas, Palacios, Amaya put up a whopping -6.0 WAR, while Civale and Cannon accounted for another -1.0 WAR on the starting pitching side. Replacing those with Murakami, and current projected bench players Sosa, Lee, Hill who all were on positive side of the WAR ledger, along with Kay who should at least be better than Civale or Cannon, could be a 10 WAR swing in itself.

What I had noted in the OP, beyond Kay, we need a solid #2 or 3 type of guy along with another late inning high leverage arm to make this at least a respectable staff.

Of course, a bit part of getting back to playing winning baseball would rely some of the other young, core guys taking another step forward, and building a winning and competitive culture in the clubhouse to maximize the talent on the roster. This to me would be the biggest factor in how fast this team can get back on track.

I was using the 2022 Orioles as an example, but of course that level of win increase doesn’t happen often. However I do see the pieces being in place along with 1 or 2 more key FA additions that could make it a possibility.

 

Vaughn, Rojas, Palacos and Amaya being gone is already baked into that win rate after the ASB. Most of the worst was long gone by then. Pereira and some of that bullpen still indicates that '26 is going to be tryouts, still. Which means some dudes are going to snap and put up 1.4 bWAR, while others struggle. I don't think they're far off, being competitive requires a lot of the young guys to not stumble. 

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, nrockway said:

I'm not expecting a whole lot, but I'd echo Eddy's sentiment that the team wasn't completely unwatchable after the prospects came up and we look to have a lot fewer Maton/Capra/Amaya/Noda types stinking up the place. Biggest question mark to me is the outfield, wide range of outcomes leaning toward really bad, whereas I think the pitching staff could be about average and I think Burke specifically might take a big step forward. Would still like it if we could solidify the rotation a bit with a free agent but I'd also be cool with just throwing guys like McDougal, Murphy, Thorpe out there and seeing what happens. I still think it's a "see what we got" kinda year, but I also don't think this team is too far off the Tigers and Guardians, especially if all the young guys take a step forward from last season. 

I do think the days of running a Palacios/Taylor platoon in RF for a solid month are behind us....I hope. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I try not to look too far ahead. I'm just enjoying watching the jigsaw puzzle being put together . Every piece forms a clearer picture . Build the framework , then fill it in see if what you got has a strong bond. 

[Timmy U]

I am more bullish than most on the Sox pitching depth. The guys you get off the garbage pile rarely tend to be that good, while good arms from the minors can often help right away -- look at Yeasavage, Schlittler, McLean, the two Boston lefties etc. I believe in H. Smith, McDougal, and Schultz. I think Oppor is gonna come fast. They have a ton of depth arms like Murphy, Schweitzer, and Davitt who may be able to soak up innings. Then, after the break, Mason Adams, Drew Thorpe, Carela, and Ky Bush become options. I think they'll be able to patch something together. If they score runs like they did in the second half, I'm beginning to see a .500 team developing. In this division, a .500 team can compete.