Can the this team be competitive in 2026?

[kitekrazy]

22 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Depends on your definition of competitive I think. 

Could they not lose 100 games this year? Maybe, it all depends on pitching and if they can keep guys healthy.

The starting rotation is still basically unproven and the bullpen is still a mess.

And let's not forget the injury situation which has gutted them since around 2018 when four players making their MLB debut couldn't even make it through their first game without getting seriously hurt.

They have the benefit of playing in a mediocre division though. 

If they only lose 90 games this year that would be a "success".

As for some fans it always relates to how the Cubs do.  Rejoicing in another team's failures - yawn.

Competitive should only mean making it to the post season regularly. The Brewers are competitive. Close but not playing in Oct. with expanded playoffs is mediocre.

 Our bar is always much lower.    

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, almagest said:

I think the K rate improvement is great, but it's just one piece. SSK25 added context on his control issues keeping his xERA about the same and control was the reason I said bullpen for Burke. Strikeouts + elite extension + high walks + an xERA of 5 = probably a reliever. Does he have a chance to keep that K rate, lower the walk rate, and become a solid starter? Probably. I sure hope you're right. Right now it doesn't look like it's going to happen though.

Again, we are talking about ceiling here…not median outcome.  I’d maintain his mostly likely outcome is a solid #4 starter.  That being said, he pitched like a #3 starter over his final 18 starts.  He posted an elite K rate over his final 10.  If he could improve his control while maintaining that K rate, then we’re talking about a legit TOR starter.  Do I think that will happen?  No I don’t, but the fact he was able to strikeout guys at such a rate implies a higher ceiling than people are letting on.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, we are talking about ceiling here…not median outcome.  I’d maintain his mostly likely outcome is a solid #4 starter.  That being said, he pitched like a #3 starter over his final 18 starts.  He posted an elite K rate over his final 10.  If he could improve his control while maintaining that K rate, then we’re talking about a legit TOR starter.  Do I think that will happen?  No I don’t, but the fact he was able to strikeout guys at such a rate implies a higher ceiling than people are letting on.

A #3 starter who avg 3.2 IP per start. What are you talking about pal?? Sheesh 

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, which is why his FIP during that stretch was that of a #3 caliber SP and not that of an ace.  That being said, I have never argued he performed like a TOR starter or will ever become one.  My arguments have been consistent no matter how many times people try to “gotcha” me or move the goalposts:

1. He doesn’t “stink”
2. He pitched better as the season progressed
3. He has a much higher ceiling than people are letting on as evident by his elite K rate in final 10 starts

Which of those three points do you disagree with?

The "elite K rate" thing is smack in the middle of a lot of other noise.  It didn't change his HR rate, and it about doubled his walk rate, leading to no actual change in his expected performance.

I previously said, I think his peak is a #4 starter, but I do think he has some consistency work to do to get there.

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

During the best stretch of his year, he had 1 plus pitch and 4 negative pitches. You're getting way too caught up in a k/9 rate that was heavily influenced by 10k's vs a terrible Nats offense down the stretch where his fastball played way up (throwing 96.5!). 

Small samples are almost never worth looking at as a baseline for future performance. 

The other guys on your list are ACTUAL starters too. Who went through lineups multiple times and pitched into the 5th inning.

He struck out 9 or more batters per 9 innings in nine of 10 starts.  He struck out over 11 batters per nine in half of them.  This is not one game radically changing the outcome here.  Take that game out altogether and he drops from 1st overall to 9th in this period, so still very much elite.  You continue to use facts disingenuously and hope people are too lazy to fact check you.

I still want to know what caused his K rate to nearly double from his first 10 starts to his 10 starts.  If it can’t be improvement or development, then what was it?  And how often do random dudes luck into a 12+ K rate per 9 over any random 10 start sample?  Show me all the outliers because I didn’t see a single one in the data set I referenced, but sounds like you feel this is commonplace and should be able to easily identify dozens of instances like this.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He struck out 9 or more batters per 9 innings in nine of 10 starts.  He struck out over 11 batters per nine in half of them.  This is not one game radically changing the outcome here.  Take that game out altogether and he drops from 1st overall to 9th in this period, so still very much elite.  You continue to use facts disingenuously and hope people are too lazy to fact check you.

I still want to know what caused his K rate to nearly double from his first 10 starts to his 10 starts.  If it can’t be improvement or development, then what was it?  And how often do random dudes luck into a 12+ K rate per 9 over any random 10 start sample?  Show me all the outliers because I didn’t see a single one in the data set I referenced, but sounds like you feel this is commonplace and should be able to easily identify dozens of instances like this.

From the looks of his velos over those starts, he is throwing much harder at that point.  More K's, but also a lot more walks.  His HR rate didn't change, meaning he was still getting hit about as hard.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He struck out 9 or more batters per 9 innings in nine of 10 starts.  He struck out over 11 batters per nine in half of them.  This is not one game radically changing the outcome here.  Take that game out altogether and he drops from 1st overall to 9th in this period, so still very much elite.  You continue to use facts disingenuously and hope people are too lazy to fact check you.

I still want to know what caused his K rate to nearly double from his first 10 starts to his 10 starts.  If it can’t be improvement or development, then what was it?  And how often do random dudes luck into a 12+ K rate per 9 over any random 10 start sample?  Show me all the outliers because I didn’t see a single one in the data set I referenced, but sounds like you feel this is commonplace and should be able to easily identify dozens of instances like this.

As I already showed, his swinging strike rate did not spike with that time (excluding our one WASN game). Having a spike in k-rate without a spike in swinging strike rate doesn't have a lot of sustainability. I don't want to keep going back and forth on Burke. I've already likely wasted enough words on a guy who isn't worth this much of a review. 

[EloyJenkins]

to get this back on track to the topic of the OP...with these moves they have made the last week...they at least look like they are trying to make a plan to be "competitive". IMO this team will be sneaky good in 2027, and next season is a coin flip based on health, some improvements with the lineup looking mostly settled and some good ole luck (when was the last time they got some of that)? The outlook on the team is SO MUCH better than a year ago, so I guess give Getz some love. I refuse to get overly optimistic with this rebuild though as I thought the last one 5 years back was going to lead to multiple division winners....

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Relative to other pitchers with his similar usage, he was the 81st ranked arm of 87. He stunk. Arguing otherwise is truly baffling. No one is saying he stinks relative to me and you.

His swinging strike rate went from 10.5% to 11.8% the final few appearances. While an improvement, it was all obtained in the final start of the year vs the Nats (again) where he ran a 21.3% swinging strike percentage. If you removed that OUTLIER (which is what it is), his swinging strike percentage from July 12th on was..... 10.8%. Nothing about his stuff played up but for one appearance. If your swstrk% doesn't change, your k/9 change is just sequencing noise mostly.

Ranked 81 out of 87 for what?  Full year FIP?  No one is arguing his full year figures were good last year…they were clearly compromised by his first 10 starts when he had a K rate of 6.19 per 9 innings.  Based on his minor track record and his first cup of coffee in the majors to end 2024, I don’t find those results to be meaningful at all in terms of projecting future performance.  I think he’s much closer to the guy who posted a 4.25 FIP over his next 18 starts and that player does not in fact “stink” vs. other major leaguers.

And again, you are attributing all his improvement in swinging strike rate to one start when again that is not true.  He was at 9.8% prior to July 12th and had an 11.8% over his final 10 starts.  Back out one the one start and he was still at 10.8% over the other nine, which is still meaningful improvement.  And why is sequencing just “noise” and not something that can be improved through strategic planning?

[Chicago White Sox]

54 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A #3 starter who avg 3.2 IP per start. What are you talking about pal?? Sheesh 

When did he average 3.2 IP per start?  Like where are these made up numbers coming from?

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The "elite K rate" thing is smack in the middle of a lot of other noise.  It didn't change his HR rate, and it about doubled his walk rate, leading to no actual change in his expected performance.

I previously said, I think his peak is a #4 starter, but I do think he has some consistency work to do to get there.

You think a dude who posted a 4.25 FIP over hist last 18 starts as a rookie has a ceiling of a “#4 starter”.  Like what are we even doing here.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

When did he average 3.2 IP per start?  Like where are these made up numbers coming from?

If you back out his six relief appearances, it is more like 4.2.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think a dude who posted a 4.25 FIP over hist last 18 starts as a rookie has a ceiling of a “#4 starter”.  Like what are we even doing here.

I think we are doing a lot of picking and choosing here to rearrange things to fit, and leaving out everything else if I am being honest.  Looking at his monthly splits, His WHIP and walk rates still went up commiserate with his velocity and K rate.  He actually got hit less early in the season, and saw his H/9 go up with his K rate and BB rate as the season went on as well.  His best HR rate was also in that May/June time period when he was K'ing less, but pitching to more contact and less hits, and HRs.

You see K rate in the later half of the season, but he really saw an across the board fall off in other stuff that made it look like he was doing a lot of over throwing, and getting hit in the zone when he came in after falling behind.  He honestly looked for effective in that middle 3rd than he did the latter one.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you back out his six relief appearances, it is more like 4.2.

Yeah, wasnt doing any math as much as making the point that this "great" end of season run came in situations where the Sox protected him from exposure (used opener to limit top of order times through) and he could of qualified for a win like one time.