Gonna start out by saying that I'm not convinced that the white Sox will win the AL central. There are some very obvious holes in this team. But I also think, given the weakness of this division and the flaws in all the other teams, that 84 wins probably wins the division. At what point do we actually start to take this seriously. I'm very encouraged by what I see from the offense and it's impossible to understate just how badly we have been missing a player like Mune for quite some time. Had we had that profile of slugger in 2021, we may have won the World Series that year. At the very least, I would like to see ownership have to make a tough decision about going for it this year.

If Teel comes back strong then I'll start to feel like MAYBE they have a shot to make some noise. I'd feel a lot better if MacDougal wasn't hurt, Shane Smith can find something again, and Hagan was throwing more than 3 innings (although he could still help the club with that).

Yeah I think the starting rotation is the weak point. But I do think the bullpen is starting to look a bit better. I'm encouraged by Burke and also I've been a Davis Martin fan since when he stepped in for us in 22. Smith has the tools to succeed in the big leagues.

If they finish May strong, I have to think it’s way more real than mirage. It will be interesting to see what they end up doing with the rotation in regards to both Hagen and Shane, I still am not sure Dominguez is a closer but like I said, let’s see how may shakes out

They have to show…

A. ) They can play above .550 against AL Central foes and winning records against the tigers and Indians

B.) The bullpens can start to hold games past the 6th inning with solidified roles past Taylor and Dominguez

C.) Their rotation improves with Smith’s return, Hagen’s call up, and an addition in July

D.) Additional support from youngsters like B Montgomery

Have been trying not to squash the optimism as I've been the positive one in in my real life circles, but this team still has no pitching outside of Schultz.

Still not a believer in Burke/Martin/Fedde. Additionally, they're 24th in FIP and pitching WAR and 21st in wRC+. That's a 70 win team.

They're fun, but they're not good. I think their position players, with Ant full-time and Teel back can get more in the top 12-14 range though! Think the pitching is actually worse than they've shown so far so could see them dropping there.

Edited May 2May 2 by Look at Ray Ray Run

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Have been trying not to squash the optimism as I've been the positive one in in my real life circles, but this team still has no pitching outside of Schultz.

Still not a believer in Burke/Martin/Fedde. Additionally, they're 24th in FIP and pitching WAR and 21st in wRC+. That's a 70 win team.

They're fun, but they're not good.

Amazing that they are getting anything out Fedde right now, but I think he is going to flame out eventually. No faith in the cheap jewelry store Kay and Fedde. Hopefully Burke is legit though.

Edited May 2May 2 by WhiteSox2023

I'll start to believe at the trade deadline if they are within striking distance and JR allows Getz to get upgraded talent and not trade players away for prospects and 'magic beans...'

Memorial Day, July 4th and trading deadline are three key points in the season imo. If they are .500 or above on any of those dates start believing -- but also look at the run differential. We're -18 and on pace for -80 and a 76 win season. There's really no indication they are "good" but every indication they no longer suck, which is good enough for now.

15 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I'll start to believe at the trade deadline if they are within striking distance and JR allows Getz to get upgraded talent and not trade players away for prospects and 'magic beans...'

If the upgrade isn't achieved by selling 2028 for a first round exit and the start of yet another rebuild.

54 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Memorial Day, July 4th and trading deadline are three key points in the season imo. If they are .500 or above on any of those dates start believing -- but also look at the run differential. We're -18 and on pace for -80 and a 76 win season. There's really no indication they are "good" but every indication they no longer suck, which is good enough for now.

I mean, they did lose opening day by 12, so that skewed it quite a bit.

11 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

I mean, they did lose opening day by 12, so that skewed it quite a bit.

They all count. Pythag is better predictor of wins until about August. It is well studied.

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Have been trying not to squash the optimism as I've been the positive one in in my real life circles, but this team still has no pitching outside of Schultz.

Still not a believer in Burke/Martin/Fedde. Additionally, they're 24th in FIP and pitching WAR and 21st in wRC+. That's a 70 win team.

They're fun, but they're not good. I think their position players, with Ant full-time and Teel back can get more in the top 12-14 range though! Think the pitching is actually worse than they've shown so far so could see them dropping there.

I know you’re always on top of it with the advanced metrics, so I’m guessing it must be something you see with that, but why are you not a believer in Davis Martin? I’ve been trying to convince my buddy that he’s legit for a couple years now. I love him, but I’m just using the eye test.

Now, I don’t think he’s an ace by any means, but I think he can be a solid 3 on a contending team.

3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I know you’re always on top of it with the advanced metrics, so I’m guessing it must be something you see with that, but why are you not a believer in Davis Martin? I’ve been trying to convince my buddy that he’s legit for a couple years now. I love him, but I’m just using the eye test.

Now, I don’t think he’s an ace by any means, but I think he can be a solid 3 on a contending team.

5.6% HR/FB rate is doing a lot of work for Martin. He's a completely capable 4th starter but there isn't a chance in hell he pitches to a 2 ERA the rest of the season given his underlying metrics. I'd be thrilled if he gives us 170 innings at an ERA of 3.8.

19 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I know you’re always on top of it with the advanced metrics, so I’m guessing it must be something you see with that, but why are you not a believer in Davis Martin? I’ve been trying to convince my buddy that he’s legit for a couple years now. I love him, but I’m just using the eye test.

Now, I don’t think he’s an ace by any means, but I think he can be a solid 3 on a contending team.

Ray Ray is just a wet blanket. I agree with you about Davis Martin. I've liked him from the start and thought he'd be a solid pitcher. I'm glad he's finely found his groove since TJS.

I didn't know Thorpe was having issues with his surgically repaired elbow. Hopefully it's nothing. The dream scenario is that he gains one or two MPH on his fastball after the surgery. I'm not too high on him but if he can become a #3 pitcher, that would be a win at this point.

If Thorpe could be a #5 that would be win at this point

4 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

5.6% HR/FB rate is doing a lot of work for Martin. He's a completely capable 4th starter but there isn't a chance in hell he pitches to a 2 ERA the rest of the season given his underlying metrics. I'd be thrilled if he gives us 170 innings at an ERA of 3.8.

Well yeah, of course he won’t have a 2 ERA. Then he’d be a legitimate ace. I like him as a 3/4 type pitcher on a good team.

My personal O/U is around 70 wins. But the team is increasingly fun, for the moment. Another injury or underperformance could definitely suck the air out of the balloon, though. Not a lot of depth at all.

I’d give them more credit if they would stop willingly giving their worst player the most at bats by batting benintendi lead off.

4 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

I know you’re always on top of it with the advanced metrics, so I’m guessing it must be something you see with that, but why are you not a believer in Davis Martin? I’ve been trying to convince my buddy that he’s legit for a couple years now. I love him, but I’m just using the eye test.

Now, I don’t think he’s an ace by any means, but I think he can be a solid 3 on a contending team.

Honestly, he's been out performing his metrics for a while so I've been wrong on him forever. That said, I always question the sustainability of that. This year he's at least missed more bats than last year (6.56 k/9 last year is not a recipe for success in the modern game, and it's why I still am not buying Burke this year), although most of it has been sequencing changes as opposed to an increase in swing and miss, and his production has been actually really good (2.87 FIP).

Biggest change this year has been with his slider, which is an entire new pitch (more velo, different movement, and throwing much more often), but the outcomes (++) have far outweighed the expected outcomes (hasn't even graded out as an average slider). So I think once that pitch starts being hit like you might expect, he goes back to a 4.5ish fip arm which is a 5 at best.

All that said, Bannister has been getting more out of the parts than you'd expect, so maybe he continues to maximize Martin and they get a solid year of sub 4 FIP performance which is absolutely a 3; especially considering how he pitches deeper into games.

10 hours ago, Colome's Hat said:

Yeah I think the starting rotation is the weak point. But I do think the bullpen is starting to look a bit better. I'm encouraged by Burke and also I've been a Davis Martin fan since when he stepped in for us in 22. Smith has the tools to succeed in the big leagues.

Fifth in walks has to come down.

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Honestly, he's been out performing his metrics for a while so I've been wrong on him forever. That said, I always question the sustainability of that. This year he's at least missed more bats than last year (6.56 k/9 last year is not a recipe for success in the modern game, and it's why I still am not buying Burke this year), although most of it has been sequencing changes as opposed to an increase in swing and miss, and his production has been actually really good (2.87 FIP).

Biggest change this year has been with his slider, which is an entire new pitch (more velo, different movement, and throwing much more often), but the outcomes (++) have far outweighed the expected outcomes (hasn't even graded out as an average slider). So I think once that pitch starts being hit like you might expect, he goes back to a 4.5ish fip arm which is a 5 at best.

All that said, Bannister has been getting more out of the parts than you'd expect, so maybe he continues to maximize Martin and they get a solid year of sub 4 FIP performance which is absolutely a 3; especially considering how he pitches deeper into games.

Starting to get noticed.

54% rostered in fantasy leagues.

Turned down him and Rutchsman for Langeliers though.

when they shed the dead weight (Beni, Acuña, Quero, Bido, Leasure though I don't see them moving Leasure off the roster anytime soon)

Just now, joejoesox said:

when they shed the dead weight (Beni, Acuña, Quero, Bido, Leasure though I don't see them moving Leasure off the roster anytime soon)

Benintendi will be rostered until the deadline next year, or until/unless Braden really forces the issue...