2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In 22 innings…it’s not sustainable bro.

How many innings will it be until it all goes bad for him? lol

He's not going anywhere especially after that fantastic outing last night. He's come up big so many times.

To me, nothing jumps out to explain the decline from last year to this year. He lost some heat on the heater a few years ago but it didn't have an immediate effect on his effectiveness. K rate finally dropped last year but he held up okay. This year it caught up with him. Stuff models not seeing a big change in the recent past. I notice his arm angle has ticked down a little bit, but not enough that I'm convinced it means anything.

Although this has unequivocally been a down year and not a good season, there's really no metric or projection that thinks he has "deserved" a 5 ERA or will continue to have an ERA so high. More like low to mid 4 depending on your metric of choice. That's still worse than he has been before. The most predictive single stat for future ERA is SIERA which is 4.39 for Castillo this year.

His slider isn't getting whiffs this season like it generally has in the past. The shape and velo seems about the same as before. Might be losing deception for one reason or another. Or he's not locating well enough.

I'll be curious whether Getz or someone else in the Sox org has anything interesting to say about what they've been seeing besides "this guy's a horse, look at the back of the baseball card"

2 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Castillo has been really good for many years. It's hard to believe that he's lost it all so quickly. A change of scenery could just be what he needs.

That Seattle dugout looked depressing as hell

2 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Castillo has been really good for many years. It's hard to believe that he's lost it all so quickly. A change of scenery could just be what he needs.

Why’s it hard to believe that a guy that has pitched for this long is beginning to lose it?

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The “it’s not our money” is a poor excuse to defend a trade. This dude is one of your five SPs next year. Ignore all the other younger, more productive arms that will be available this offseason that we could have used this money on…we just settled on Castillo being that guy because we wanted the smallest of upgrades for the post season.

Do you seriously believe that as long as Jerry is around we will seriously have a chance at signing a free agent ace?

I think they’re banking on tweeting Castillo and getting him back to number 2 form for this year and next whereas his contract looks like a deal.

Until Ishbia takes over, we will likely not be signing number 1 types. As sad as it is.

when you're getting a shitty player, you let the team trading him bait you on "he just needs a change of scenery"

you're not supposed to fucking tell them, "nah we'll pay the bag. yeah all of it, he probably just needs a change of scenery. oh yeah here's a couple prospects too."

I feel like some of you are living in fuckimg fairytale lala land

41 minutes ago, HeGetzUs said:

If they are worried about the extra 12.5 million to next year’s extremely low payroll they are screwed anyways if they add a salary floor with their extremely low payroll as it already sits

You think Jerry is going to dump Castillo and eat his $24M salary if he continues on at his current pace?

Just now, Jake said:

To me, nothing jumps out to explain the decline from last year to this year. He lost some heat on the heater a few years ago but it didn't have an immediate effect on his effectiveness. K rate finally dropped last year but he held up okay. This year it caught up with him. Stuff models not seeing a big change in the recent past. I notice his arm angle has ticked down a little bit, but not enough that I'm convinced it means anything.

Although this has unequivocally been a down year and not a good season, there's really no metric or projection that thinks he has "deserved" a 5 ERA or will continue to have an ERA so high. More like low to mid 4 depending on your metric of choice. That's still worse than he has been before. The most predictive single stat for future ERA is SIERA which is 4.39 for Castillo this year.

His slider isn't getting whiffs this season like it generally has in the past. The shape and velo seems about the same as before. Might be losing deception for one reason or another. Or he's not locating well enough.

I'll be curious whether Getz or someone else in the Sox org has anything interesting to say about what they've been seeing besides "this guy's a horse, look at the back of the baseball card"

Are teams stacking lineup with lefties?

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Jerry is going to dump Castillo and eat his $24M salary if he continues on at his current pace?

I eagerly await the first DFA Castillo thread next year

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You are a fucking clown…go Stan for Jerry Reinsdorf some more you dolt

The Hall of Fame List is golden. I’m telling you.

1 minute ago, Jake said:

To me, nothing jumps out to explain the decline from last year to this year. He lost some heat on the heater a few years ago but it didn't have an immediate effect on his effectiveness. K rate finally dropped last year but he held up okay. This year it caught up with him. Stuff models not seeing a big change in the recent past. I notice his arm angle has ticked down a little bit, but not enough that I'm convinced it means anything.

Although this has unequivocally been a down year and not a good season, there's really no metric or projection that thinks he has "deserved" a 5 ERA or will continue to have an ERA so high. More like low to mid 4 depending on your metric of choice. That's still worse than he has been before. The most predictive single stat for future ERA is SIERA which is 4.39 for Castillo this year.

His slider isn't getting whiffs this season like it generally has in the past. The shape and velo seems about the same as before. Might be losing deception for one reason or another. Or he's not locating well enough.

I'll be curious whether Getz or someone else in the Sox org has anything interesting to say about what they've been seeing besides "this guy's a horse, look at the back of the baseball card"

They have to have some model that thinks he's going to be worth at least $14 million next year, right? Otherwise, why make a trade like this?

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Why’s it hard to believe that a guy that has pitched for this long is beginning to lose it?

Because the consistently good ones don't lose it that fast and its more likely than not that he has a lot left.

12 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I do think we may see them go get Mason Miller. I still think that is the splash move Getz makes…

I do think they will acquire Adley to play catcher as long as his injury isn’t serious.

Yep, I think this move sets us up for moves like this. Some disagree and I don’t blame them.

43 minutes ago, wegner said:

But how many guys would Smith walk per 9 innings in MLB right now?

Not sure…the Sox are the team signaling they plan on adding him to the major league mix. Regardless, I’d rather gamble on his stuff than Schweitzer’s down the stretch.

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I’ll be honest…I’d have been way more mad if we dealt Bonemer or Carlson for Detmers for this deal.

If Carlson was the main piece going for Detmers, that deal would have been done.

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Are teams stacking lineup with lefties?

Maybe if that is the case…piggy back him with Schultz

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I eagerly await the first DFA Castillo thread next year

He could be pitching lights out and this will happen lol

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

Do you seriously believe that as long as Jerry is around we will seriously have a chance at signing a free agent ace?

I think they’re banking on tweeting Castillo and getting him back to number 2 form for this year and next whereas his contract looks like a deal.

Until Ishbia takes over, we will likely not be signing number 1 types. As sad as it is.

No disrespect but earlier in the thread you are talking about them targeting top guys like Mason Miller.

Your point is correct, JR does not shoot for the best (remember his comment about finishing second or third?) so to think they are going after guys like that just is not realistic.

Again maybe when Ishbia takes over.

We'll see what the next 48 hours bring.

2 minutes ago, almagest said:

Is this guy related to Jim?

42 minutes ago, HeGetzUs said:

Seattle got Cash considerations??

Holy s%*#…we’re potentially giving cash in this trade!?! Can’t even make this s%*# up at this point.

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think Jerry is going to dump Castillo and eat his $24M salary if he continues on at his current pace?

Don’t think he would dump Castillo but you are really only taking on 12.5 next year when you factor in you were gonna pay Dominguez 10 mil next year. No way he hits 180 innings if He continues to be bad next year for the 2028 to vest

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Are teams stacking lineup with lefties?

Yes and they have a 380 woba against him

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Holy s%*#…we’re potentially giving cash in this trade!?! Can’t even make this s%*# up at this point.

It better be for a Cy Young or something outlandish lol.

8 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I get the frustration and maybe that changes in the next 24 hours but like I've been saying history shows the Sox do not go for the jugular and try to acquire the very best available. That's simply not how they operate, always looking for discounts, retreads, guys hoping to catch lightening in a bottle. That usually doesn't work very often, Esteban Loazia non-withstanding.

Loiaza in 2003 was an accident.

Getting F.Garcia and Contreras were going for the jugular.