I guess it was time for Carlos to move on

[Gene Honda Civic]

 

There's some difference between ESPN's "close and late" and MLB's "close and late".  Cowley was using MLB's, even though the ESPN stat is the common definition (at least, it's the one I've heard about before).  Who knows why he chose that one...

 

I can't figure out how MLB defines "close and late".

You're right, but that illustrates my point even more.... Look how wildly the stats fluctuate just by changing the definition of close and late.

[Whitewashed in '05]

One thing about Cowley... he doesn't make s*** up.

I think this is such bulls***, I don't believe Carlos would say that, and even if he did feel that way he wouldn't say it. Just because Cowley is respected doesn't mean that he wouldn't make s*** up.

 

As for Carlos' situation being addressed, Ozzie did bench him a couple days didn't he, or was that someone else? Carlos' problems were out there but Cowley didn't have to do it after he left.

 

I thought Carlos was great, I considered him my favorite -as many others did- because he treated the fans well. What went on in the clubhouse is totally different. If his attitude was the reason he was shipped out then fine, but to bad mouth him after he is gone is just childish.

[jackie hayes]

You're right, but that illustrates my point even more.... Look how wildly the stats fluctuate just by changing the definition of close and late.

You're preaching to the choir. Btw, does anyone know what the difference is? I can't find anything on mlb.com.

[retro1983hat]

Kenny Williams said he was going to make a trade like this and, well he did it. I am a bit surprised by how scathing the article was. I could see some of that selfishness in his play, but it is hard to see those home runs and RBI walk out the door.

 

Wait and see is all we can do.

[qwerty]

Kenny Williams said he was going to make a trade like this and, well he did it. I am a bit surprised by how scathing the article was. I could see some of that selfishness in his play, but it is hard to see those home runs and RBI walk out the door.

 

Wait and see is all we can do.

Welcome to soxtalk.

[Chisoxfn]

Kenny Williams said he was going to make a trade like this and, well he did it. I am a bit surprised by how scathing the article was. I could see some of that selfishness in his play, but it is hard to see those home runs and RBI walk out the door.

 

Wait and see is all we can do.

I think your right in just how negative the article was. I thought Cowley brought up some new facts, but at the same time you didn't see him mention much about the things Carlos did well.

 

And there is no doubt Carlos is a good player. However, I think with the extra money (assuming its spent right...aka on a good pitcher) then this is a deal that helps both teams and truthfully thats how trades should be. Although it is great when your team can rip off another team, ie the Colon acquisition, lol.

 

By the way, welcome aboard

[southsider2k5]

Kenny Williams said he was going to make a trade like this and, well he did it. I am a bit surprised by how scathing the article was. I could see some of that selfishness in his play, but it is hard to see those home runs and RBI walk out the door.

 

Wait and see is all we can do.

Welcome in to Soxtalk!!!!

[YASNY]

I gotta say, even though the guy is potentially dying, he still hangs on to the hate. Sad really.  Wonder what petty slight Carlos did to Cowley?

 

The stats are completely bogus. The claims are completely unsubstantiated.

 

A few examples that would show a player in a bad light could be found for any player.

First off, how can stats be "completely bogus"? Stats are exactly that .... stats. You can't change them because they are in the books. Cowley gave 2004 stats and career stats to back up his point. Nobody in Soxtalk chooses selective stats to back up their point. If they did, that would make the stats "completely bogus". Unsubstantiated claims? ... I beg to differ. He QUOTED Lee. He put the name of a respected team leader in connection with Lee's lack of being a team player. He also used quotes from the GM, stated back in September and that didn't cause a stink back then, to back up his story. The quotes by KW raised a flag with me, at the time, that there was more to the story than we were getting. I couldn't understand it then, but it all comes into crystal clear focus now.

 

I'm taking the word of a Sox beat writer ... someone that is around the team all year long .... and the facts mentioned above, and saying that there is fire that is causing all this smoke. Also, in my mind I questioned the fact that the Sox would trade Konerko if it meant getting Randy Johnson, but would trade Lee if they had to settle for Vazquez. Too much smoke ... turns out there was plenty of fire.

[Texsox]

First off, how can stats be "completely bogus"?  Stats are exactly that .... stats.  You can't change them because they are in the books.  Cowley gave 2004 stats and career stats to back up his point.  Nobody in Soxtalk chooses selective stats to back up their point.  If they did, that would make the stats "completely bogus". Unsubstantiated claims? ... I beg to differ.  He QUOTED Lee.  He put the name of a respected team leader in connection with Lee's lack of being a team player.  He also used quotes from the GM, stated back in September and that didn't cause a stink back then, to back up his story.  The quotes by KW raised a flag with me, at the time, that there was more to the story than we were getting.  I couldn't understand it then, but it all comes into crystal clear focus now. 

 

I'm taking the word of a Sox beat writer ... someone that is around the team all year long .... and the facts mentioned above, and saying that there is fire that is causing all this smoke.  Also, in my mind I questioned the fact that the Sox would trade Konerko if it meant getting Randy Johnson, but would trade Lee if they had to settle for Vazquez.  Too much smoke ... turns out there was plenty of fire.

Well said.

 

One of the difficulties is there is no reliable stat for "attitude" and "team chemistry". No way to really add that to the formula.

 

2004 was an injury problem

was 2003 attitude? team chemistry" Manual?

Edited December 15, 2004 by Texsox

[jackie hayes]

First off, how can stats be "completely bogus"?  Stats are exactly that .... stats.  You can't change them because they are in the books.  Cowley gave 2004 stats and career stats to back up his point.  Nobody in Soxtalk chooses selective stats to back up their point.  If they did, that would make the stats "completely bogus". Unsubstantiated claims? ... I beg to differ.  He QUOTED Lee.  He put the name of a respected team leader in connection with Lee's lack of being a team player.  He also used quotes from the GM, stated back in September and that didn't cause a stink back then, to back up his story.  The quotes by KW raised a flag with me, at the time, that there was more to the story than we were getting.  I couldn't understand it then, but it all comes into crystal clear focus now. 

 

I'm taking the word of a Sox beat writer ... someone that is around the team all year long .... and the facts mentioned above, and saying that there is fire that is causing all this smoke.  Also, in my mind I questioned the fact that the Sox would trade Konerko if it meant getting Randy Johnson, but would trade Lee if they had to settle for Vazquez.  Too much smoke ... turns out there was plenty of fire.

He's using misleading stats. If we are trying to use the stats to measure Carlos's ability, then they're only valid if the sample size is large. He's picking stats that have small sample sizes, therefore (even though they're true) they are not reliable guides to Lee's ability.

[YASNY]

He's using misleading stats.  If we are trying to use the stats to measure Carlos's ability, then they're only valid if the sample size is large.  He's picking stats that have small sample sizes, therefore (even though they're true) they are not reliable guides to Lee's ability.

Career stats aren't large enough?

[Texsox]

Using stats to predict future performance is a tough balancing act. Often times early numbers may unfairly skew results either positively or negatively. If predicting events based on stats was foolproof, we would all be millionaires via the stock market or via the race track.

 

What we have learned here, if you hadn't already, is to analyze the terms and judge the sample population before looking at the results. Methodology if always the key. That is also why great statisticians are paid very well by everyone from political campaigns to baseball teams.

[jackie hayes]

Career stats aren't large enough? 

Definitely not for bases loaded. Lee only got 13 abs last season w/ the bases loaded, he went 3/13=.231 avg in 2004 cited by Cowley. That's a joke. But even over 5 years, you're probably looking at 50 abs, not nearly enough.

 

For the others, you could argue either way. But if you believe a player develops over time, that average isn't meaningful anyway.

 

All careful statistical work that I've seen has said that RISP + "close and late" averages are basically just noise, that there's almost no correlation between past and future "clutch" performance. So if you want to argue that clutch statistics are meaningful, you have to ignore the statistics. Kind of funny, really.

[YASNY]

Definitely not for bases loaded.  Lee only got 13 abs last season w/ the bases loaded, he went 3/13=.231 avg in 2004 cited by Cowley.  That's a joke.  But even over 5 years, you're probably looking at 50 abs, not nearly enough.

 

For the others, you could argue either way.  But if you believe a player develops over time, that average isn't meaningful anyway.

 

All careful statistical work that I've seen has said that RISP + "close and late" averages are basically just noise, that there's almost no correlation between past and future "clutch" performance.  So if you want to argue that clutch statistics are meaningful, you have to ignore the statistics.  Kind of funny, really.

If you can't take a veteran's career stats as an indicator (.268 for his careerwith bases loaded) what the hell can you take? Hang it up. Your "small sample" argument doesn't get it when a guy has as much ML experience as Carlos Lee. By the timne he gets enough at abts to where you consider it valid, they'll be invalid because he's 68 years old.

[Texsox]

If you can't take a veteran's career stats as an indicator (.268 for his careerwith bases loaded) what the hell can you take? Hang it up.  Your "small sample" argument doesn't get it when a guy has as much ML experience as Carlos Lee.  By the timne he gets enough at abts to where you consider it valid, they'll be invalid because he's 68 years old.

YASNY, I have a small disagreement with you on this. The problem I have with career stats as they do not always reflect the guys current condition. Extreme example Take Shamee pre-"working out" and post "working out" power numbers. Factor in career and it lowers what you could reasonably expect from him. IT also doesn't take into consideration the age of the player. Career stats for a 30 year old may be a better reflection in his next 5 seasons than career stats on a 40 year old.

 

I try and see some trends in the numbers. Know what you are looking at (as you do)and draw reasonable conclusions based on the appropriateness of the stats. Career stats may or may not be a good tool to judge the future performance. It depends on the individual. The previous 2-5 years may be an even better tool. Sometime you need a hammer, sometimes a wrench. Each tool is different, just as each stat is different.

[jackie hayes]

If you can't take a veteran's career stats as an indicator (.268 for his careerwith bases loaded) what the hell can you take? Hang it up.  Your "small sample" argument doesn't get it when a guy has as much ML experience as Carlos Lee.  By the timne he gets enough at abts to where you consider it valid, they'll be invalid because he's 68 years old.

No, I don't think I will "hang it up". Sometimes (eg, hitting with the bases loaded) there just isn't enough information to draw a conclusion from the statistics. Deal with it.

 

Maybe you look for "clutch" elsewhere. But to say this is the statistic I really want, so therefore it must be right in spite of the fact that statisticians say it's very inaccurate, is a bad argument.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Definitely not for bases loaded.  Lee only got 13 abs last season w/ the bases loaded, he went 3/13=.231 avg in 2004 cited by Cowley.  That's a joke.  But even over 5 years, you're probably looking at 50 abs, not nearly enough.

 

For the others, you could argue either way.  But if you believe a player develops over time, that average isn't meaningful anyway.

 

All careful statistical work that I've seen has said that RISP + "close and late" averages are basically just noise, that there's almost no correlation between past and future "clutch" performance.  So if you want to argue that clutch statistics are meaningful, you have to ignore the statistics.  Kind of funny, really.

I guess it was just coincidence that Timo Perez hit almost .400 last season with RISP yet had an average just above .200. Clutch is clutch, some guys have it and others don't. If michael jordan was 3/13 in last second shots to win games, would you consider him clutch? CLee, though a very strong offensive contributor, could not be counted on in the clutch to make it count. If you're a talented hitter, and you get up to bat knowing that bases are loaded, you're going to have a higher average than in a non-critical situation (mental focus, etc.). 13ABs with the bases loaded and he came through 3 times. That's disappointing, very disappointing, especially from an RBI producer, which is what he was paid to do.

[Dick Allen]

I remember during the Olivo trade that KW or JR mentioned that they have a 5-year roster projection and MO was on that projection. I wonder if Lee was also?

I also remember KW leaking the info that they didn't like the way MO called a game after he was gone, after telling the media it was the hardest thing he ever did, telling him he was traded. He couldn't just leave it at we acquired an ace and had to give up a lot to get a lot. This article makes KW look bad IMO. He told Doug Melvin Carlos would be an All Star. Did he mention the transgressions listed in the article to Melvin. Cowley has the right to write what he wants, but I think its cowardly that he writes it when the player leaves town. And if all this stuff is true, and he was such a bad teammate, I think the rest of the team would be thrilled if this story was written during the season, when it occurred. He mentioned Carlos' statistical shortcomings, but never stated that the players coming back had even more.

[Molto]

keep in mind that this is a commentary. I'm not so sure wheather a beat writer like Cowley should be doing something like this, but I'm not at all upset with it. If I had a say in the matter, I probably would've let Cowley write about it also.

 

I also don't mind completely that he waited for Lee to go. While I think Cowley may have put himself in a tough position now as a commentary will now put him on a different level and create a different image of him through both the readers eyes and the player's eyes, I also think letting all of this out allows fans to see things behind the scenes. There are a lot of people who pissed at the trade ... this will let them see it in a different light.

 

If I was Cowley, as I believe Jason said, I would've tried to balance it out a little bit, but it is a commentary. Anybody who writes a commentary has to give their opinion, no sugar coating.

[Hatchetman]

I'm taking the word of a Sox beat writer ... someone that is around the team all year long ....

Taking the word of a pussy who waited until Lee was gone before he wrote the story.

[Molto]

Taking the word of a pussy who waited until Lee was gone before he wrote the story.

it's debatable whether he should've done that during the season.

 

there is a reason this is getting a lot of pub now, because Lee was just traded and some people were wondering why a team would trade such a guy.

 

Cowley writing this during the season would be rather pointless, unless something happened that would lead to something like this needing to get out. Had he of written about Lee in a commentary during the season it would've created a lot of problems within the clubhouse.

 

I don't think Cowley was a coward here, but writing a commentary like this about a team you cover is questionable.

[CanOfCorn]

Unlike the case with slugger Frank Thomas — who in the past has seemed to thrive when called out — Williams was concerned that trying to motivate Lee through the media could produce more problems than good.

 

This is the most telling line in the piece. Maybe the White Sox asked the beat writers to NOT write about Carlos during the season for the above reason. A beat writer that gets in bad with the team he is writing about is worthless. So, now that Carlos is gone, he can write all of the things he couldn't write when Carlos was here. Unfortunately, it seems like he is ganging up on him, when in fact, he is reporting facts.

[CWSGuy406]

I guess it was just coincidence that Timo Perez hit almost .400 last season with RISP yet had an average just above .200.  Clutch is clutch, some guys have it and others don't.  If michael jordan was 3/13 in last second shots to win games, would you consider him clutch? CLee, though a very strong offensive contributor, could not be counted on in the clutch to make it count.  If you're a talented hitter, and you get up to bat knowing that bases are loaded, you're going to have a higher average than in a non-critical situation (mental focus, etc.).  13ABs with the bases loaded and he came through 3 times.  That's disappointing, very disappointing, especially from an RBI producer, which is what he was paid to do.

Carlos Lee not clutch?

 

I beg to differ.

 

In some of the biggest games this team has had, Carlos has made some huge hits.

 

I.E. 2004 vs. the Cubs -- After Glendon Rusch absolutely mowed down the Sox lineup for eight innings in a row, Carlos Lee comes up in the ninth and bashes a homer out to left center field.

 

And, a couple years earlier (2001 or 2002), didn't Carlos hit a grand slam in extra innings to beat the Cubbies at Comisky?

 

 

To say Carlos isn't clutch is bulls***. He's come up with his fair share of hits as much as anyone.

[Texsox]

No, I don't think I will "hang it up".  Sometimes (eg, hitting with the bases loaded) there just isn't enough information to draw a conclusion from the statistics.  Deal with it.

 

Maybe you look for "clutch" elsewhere.  But to say this is the statistic I really want, so therefore it must be right in spite of the fact that statisticians say it's very inaccurate, is a bad argument.

Actually a comparison could be made to other MLB players with the same range of AB with bases loaded. One could also look at the overall MLB average with bases loaded and draw some conclusions from that.

 

I imagine FlaSoxxJim has a high dollar stats program that could determine the T value and give all sorts of reasons why, or why not, the stat is meaningful.

 

How much credence someone would put into the analysis is probably directly related to that person's opinion of the player involved.

[Dick Allen]

it's debatable whether he should've done that during the season.

 

there is a reason this is getting a lot of pub now, because Lee was just traded and some people were wondering why a team would trade such a guy.

 

Cowley writing this during the season would be rather pointless, unless something happened that would lead to something like this needing to get out. Had he of written about Lee in a commentary during the season it would've created a lot of problems within the clubhouse.

 

I don't think Cowley was a coward here, but writing a commentary like this about a team you cover is questionable.

If that's a reason KW traded him, then KW should be the one telling this story. Ironically, KW has been after Randy Johnson, a guy teammates would not consider the most pleasant in the world. He got into a fight with Luis Gonzalez, considered one of the nicest and best people in sports.