aboz56 Posted August 14, 2006 Share Posted August 14, 2006 Pretty cool little chart they have going on here, updated daily: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php Has us at 12% to win the division, 45% for the Wild Card and 57% chance overall to get to the postseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 if we keep winning i like our chances of the division more and more. im gonna forget about charts and sabermetrics... just win win win and when we play detriot WIN WIN WIN then we'll be a-ok! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 They had the Red Sox at .01% to win the World Series when they down 3-0 back in 2004. After the Sox beat Detroit last year, the Sox only had a 96% of winning the divison before the 3 game series with Cleveland. "cool" isn't the word I would use to describe it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAfan Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense. How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RME JICO Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 I check that link regularly. Also, they use PECOTA projections too: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 QUOTE(VAfan @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 09:55 AM) I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense. How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting. I could be wrong but I'm guessing it's all done with formulas based off of historical data. So for example at this point in the season teams with so and so lead/record have historically made the playoffs x amount and won the division/wild card x amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 QUOTE(VAfan @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 08:55 AM) I like baseball stats, but I think these guys lack common sense. How can the Yanks be 76-21 favorites over the Red Sox with only a 2-game lead and 45+ games to go? Do you think they would lay those odds on a bet? Moreover, how can the Yanks be 82-57 favorites over us to make the playoffs when they have a worse record than we do? (Granted, they have a division lead, but it is only 2 games and if they lose it, they are out right now.) Why do the Yanks project out to more wins than us when they have fewer wins now and have a poorer run differential? I know BP has formulas for all of this, but the formulas need some adjusting. The Yanks are in a slightly weaker division so they would be theoretically be able to win more games, I would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chet Lemon Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 I will forever abhor Baseball Prospectus for writing that the 2005 Sox would finish in "the basement" of the division w/ KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winninguglyin83 Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 QUOTE(Chet Lemon @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 04:36 PM) I will forever abhor Baseball Prospectus for writing that the 2005 Sox would finish in "the basement" of the division w/ KC. You are absolutely right. the 2005 book wrote some of the meanest, dismissive predictions I've ever read about the Sox. And read the 2006 book. They didn't admit they were wrong. They suggested the Sox were lucky and statistical freaks for winning all those one-run games. I read Baseball Prospectus. But they have folks there who enjoy bashing the crap out of the White Sox, especially Kenny Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fullcollapse Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. i didn't see anything with details of the simulation, like if it includes possible injuries and how often subs play. there a lot of questions you could ask about the simulation. i check it on a regular basis and think it is pretty interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted August 15, 2006 Share Posted August 15, 2006 dude, the white sox f***ing suck. I have been pretending to like them for the past year just out of spite. I'm a yankees fan, and we at least will make the postseason b****es. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gojimthome Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I think we still have only a 19% chance of making last year's playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 QUOTE(Reddy @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 06:26 PM) dude, the white sox f***ing suck. I have been pretending to like them for the past year just out of spite. I'm a yankees fan, and we at least will make the postseason b****es. um... i didnt type that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrzo2733 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 QUOTE(Contreras @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 07:20 PM) I think we still have only a 19% chance of making last year's playoffs. That Chucky Carr thing is f***ing hilarious. "George is getting angry!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry&JimmyRocked Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 QUOTE(winninguglyin83 @ Aug 15, 2006 -> 12:22 PM) You are absolutely right. the 2005 book wrote some of the meanest, dismissive predictions I've ever read about the Sox. And read the 2006 book. They didn't admit they were wrong. They suggested the Sox were lucky and statistical freaks for winning all those one-run games. I read Baseball Prospectus. But they have folks there who enjoy bashing the crap out of the White Sox, especially Kenny Williams. duh, bill james is connected with BP and he's considered a god by good ole billy bean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Felix Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 QUOTE(Harry&JimmyRocked @ Aug 16, 2006 -> 04:30 PM) duh, bill james is connected with BP and he's considered a god by good ole billy bean Billy Beane. Billy Bean is a different player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 Its amazing to me how many people are still stupid and/or bitter enough to think a team that was in first place for all 162 games and went 11-1 in the playoffs won the championship because they were "lucky". These BP guys, who are all about stats, choose to ignore that overwhelming statistical fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHarris1 Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 (edited) We lost to the Royals and our chances of winning the Wild Card improved 20% last night. Edited August 18, 2006 by WHarris1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rangercal Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Aug 18, 2006 -> 01:27 AM) We lost to the Royals and our chances of winning the Wild Card improved 20% last night. I agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valponick Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Updated: American League New York Yankees: 97.84 percent Detroit Tigers: 97.57 percent Oakland A's: 80.00 percent Minnesota Twins*: 58.51 percent Chicago White Sox: 41.00 percent Los Angeles Angels: 16.68 percent Boston Red Sox: 4.23 percent National League New York Mets: 100 percent St. Louis Cardinals: 83.64 percent Los Angeles Dodgers: 74.10 percent San Diego Padres: 40.09 percent Cincinnati Reds: 37.98 percent Philadelphia Phillies*: 20.43 percent San Francisco Giants: 16.58 percent Florida Marlins: 6.45 percent Houston Astros: 6.10 percent * – Wild card leader: The Twins are at 49.35 percent, ahead of the White Sox at 35.94 percent, and the Phillies at 20.42 percent are ahead of a gaggle of teams, including the current leaders, the Reds (18.79 percent), and the Padres (15.88 percent) Took this from Jeff Passan's article on Yahoo! sports but it is from the BP site http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 so you just gotta add the percentage to win the division and the percentage of the wildcard for total percentage!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoRowand33 Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 those odds are bulls*** the twins are 1/2 game better than the sox, yet they have an 18% better chance to make the playoffs because of that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(GoRowand33 @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 09:21 PM) those odds are bulls*** the twins are 1/2 game better than the sox, yet they have an 18% better chance to make the playoffs because of that? um, 7 home games vs. the Royals.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoRowand33 Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 QUOTE(Greg Hibbard @ Aug 28, 2006 -> 09:27 PM) um, 7 home games vs. the Royals.... didn't realize that they took schedule into account, I thought it was purely percentage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 it's all based on computer simulations of the remainder of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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